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More Bad News and Another Leg Higher
www.oneoption.com
This morning CPI rose along with initial jobless claims and the market rallied.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – Yesterday the market rejoiced when PPI fell to -.1% from a spike to .9% the prior month. To be fair, I think the market would have rallied on any result and buyers pushed the market higher the day before the release. We saw this same unusual confidence last Thursday before the jobs report was released. Even after a dismal labor report, the market gapped up.
This morning the CPI rose by .4% and that was hotter than the .3% that was expected. It takes 2-3 months for producers to pass higher costs on to consumers so a higher number was likely. Given the drop in PPI yesterday, any spike in CPI would have been viewed as temporary. The Fed has stated that any tariff related inflation would be short-lived.
Initial jobless claims rose to 263K. That is the highest reading this year and it is consistent with a deteriorating job market. These numbers should have been rising for months and it casts doubt on the data collection/reporting process. This week we learned that employment from April 2024 – March 2025 was overstated by almost 1 million. We can’t trust the numbers.
Trust what you see, not what you hear. Isn’t that the premise behind technical analysis? When people stop eating out, it is a sign that consumers are tightening their belts and that economic conditions are slipping. We are watching human behavior instead of relying on reports. This is more reliable than the metrics pumped out by bureaucrats who have their own agendas.
What I see currently is a market that doesn’t care about government data points. It cares about the Fed rate cut next week. Could the tide turn? Sure, but we have to wait for technical signs of selling pressure. Currently, bad news has only translated into temporary pullbacks that have been bought up. Conditions are worse than what has been reported and the Fed is likely to cut twice this year.
I am still keeping my trade duration short term and I like buying strong stocks that have dipped the last day or two. The D1 charts are strong, they have nice breakouts and relative strength. They get a little ahead of themselves and a brief round of profit taking tests the bid. When buyers have established support… I buy. That is the tactic you need to use. Take gains and don’t overstay your welcome.
Global markets were up nicely overnight. That is providing a tailwind. I don’t chase gaps up. We are going to test the high from Wednesday right out of the gate. If we blow through that high, the market could grind higher. If that resistance holds, we could get the dip we need to find relative strength and to enter well. Be patient.
Yesterday’s range are support and resistance.
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