Closing Recap

Thursday, September 11, 2025

U.S. stocks extend record highs with the S&P 500, Nasdaq Cop and Dow Jones Industrials in unchartered territory, as mixed/weaker economic data raised the prospect of more aggressive rate cuts by the Fed, starting with an expected 25bps cut next week. The Nasdaq topped 22,000 for the first time ever (+13% YTD) helped by another record highs for semiconductors (SOX +19% YTD) and the Dow Jones Industrials topped 46,000 for the first time (+6.9% YTD). The S&P 500 index (SPX) approaches 6,600, rallying all afternoon with no pullbacks (+11% YTD), as a spike in weekly jobless claims overshadowed a “hotter” CPI inflation report. Treasury yields slipped on bets the Fed will begin a rate cutting easing cycle, while gold held near record highs. There were very few areas of weakness in the stock market, as ten of eleven S&P sectors finished higher (Energy was red) and more than 1% gains for Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, Materials, Financials, Communications and REITs. Managed care got a spike behind Medicaid comments from CNC, media sector a jump on M&A media headlines between PSKY/WBD, Mag 7 names mixed but TSLA massive outperformance, memory/chip stocks 52-week highs MU, STX, WDC, SNDK and US listed China stocks adding to recent rally (BABA, BIDU). Russell 2000 +1.4% at 2,412 back to best levels since November as Smallcaps outperform today. Just little to no stock market fear continues to push stock.

In trade news, in a CNBC interview this morning, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he believes the United States will sort out a trade deal with India as soon as that country stops buying Russian oil. Asked on CNBC what trade issue he was most focused on, Lutnick mentioned India and said: “Well, we’re going to sort out India,” once it stops buying Russian oil. Lutnick also said “we have a big deal coming with Taiwan” and he said a trade agreement would probably get done with Switzerland. On South Korea, he said: “We made a deal, but let’s see if they come through with the paperwork.” Separately, Mexico said it will raise tariffs on automobiles from China and other Asian countries to 50%. The government announced a broad tariff overhaul to protect jobs. The Economy Ministry said tariffs will rise on textiles, steel, cars and another goods, affecting $52 billion in imports.

European Central Bank (ECB) keeps main rate at 2%: The Governing Council decided to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. Inflation is currently at around the 2% medium-term target and the Governing Council’s assessment of the inflation outlook is broadly unchanged. The new ECB staff projections present a picture of inflation similar to that projected in June. They see headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026 and 1.9% in 2027. For inflation excluding energy and food, they expect an average of 2.4% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. The economy is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, revised up from the 0.9% expected in June. The growth projection for 2026 is now slightly lower, at 1.0%, while the projection for 2027 is unchanged at 1.3%.

Weekly sentiment data showed: 1) The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was -21.5 vs -10.7 last week. Bulls fall to 28% from 32.7%, Neutrals fall to 22.5% from 23.9%, Bears rise to 49.5% from 43.4%; 2) This week’s NAAIM Exposure Index rose to 86.11 from last week’s 81.58 – recent hi of 98.1 from 8/21 – 2025 hi of 99.30 from 7/3 – 2025 trough from 4-16 of 35.16 – Last Quarter Average (Q2) of 73.28.

• Weekly jobless claims stole the show however, soaring to the highest since Oct 2021 at 263k, well above the prior week of 236K and consensus 235K; the 4-week moving average climbed to 240,500 from 230,750 prior week (previous 231,000) and continued claims unchanged at 1.939M from 1.939M prior week.
• The U.S. budget deficit for August fell $35 billion or 9% from a year earlier to $345 billion as President Donald Trump’s tariffs pushed net customs receipts up by about $22.5 billion for the month, the Treasury Department said. With one month to go in the 2025 fiscal year, the year-to-date deficit rose $76 billion, or 4% to $1.973 trillion. Receipts for August rose $38 billion or 12% to $344 billion, while August outlays grew $2 billion to $689 billion. Both receipts and outlays reached new records for the month.

• In Energy: World oil supply will rise more rapidly than expected this year as OPEC+ members increase output further and supply from outside the group grows, the International Energy Agency said, and implied that a surplus could grow in 2026. Supply will rise by 2.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, up from 2.5 million bpd previously forecast, the IEA said in a monthly report, and by a further 2.1 million bpd next year. Meanwhile OPEC leaves forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 unchanged at 1.29 Million BPD.

• In Beverages: CELH was initiated at Buy and $72 tgt at Goldman Sachs as views Celsius as one of the best growth stories in consumer-packaged goods sector. The energy drink company operates in the cyclically growing better-for-you energy drink category that is growing and taking share in a competitive industry.
• In Grocers: KR raised its annual core sales forecast, banking on resilient demand for its lower-priced products, saying it now expects full-year identical sales to increase in the range of 2.7% to 3.4%, compared with its prior forecast of a 2.25% to 3.25% rise.

• In Refiners: Piper raised price tgts for several names, DINO to $59 from $51, DK to $34 from $29, MPC to $222 from $184, PARR to $44 from $39, PBF to $29 from $22, PSX to $154 from $144, VLO to $200 from $171 saying despite steadily recurring calls over the course of 2025 for the imminent decline in refining margins or to fade refining stocks, refining markets have continued to shrug off concerns, with margins defying expectations. While there is ongoing debate at the margin on both supply and demand, the clear takeaway is a global products market that remains relatively tight.

• In Asset Managers: AB announced that preliminary assets under management increased to $844B during August 2025 from $830B at the end of July. Firmwide net inflows coupled with market appreciation drove the 2% increase in month-end AUM; APAM preliminary assets under management as of August 31 totaled $178.1B. LAZ preliminary AUM as of Aug 31, 2025, totaled about $258.4B as included market appreciation of $2.7B, FX appreciation of $2.2B, and net outflows of $0.2B; TROW preliminary August month-end assets under management of $1.73 trillion while preliminary net outflows for August 2025 were $5.9B; VCTR Total AUM of $303.7Bwith other assets of $2.7B, and total client assets of $306.4B; VRTS prelim AUM of $170.6B and other fee earning assets of $1.8B for total client assets of $172.4B as of August 31, 2025.

• In Lending: Deutsche Bank initiated FNMA at Buy and $20 PT and FMCC Buy and $25 PT in GSE sector saying despite already rallying ~300% year-to-date, stills see attractive upside for both stocks as the companies near a likely recap & release, though with meaningful downside if the recapitalization process brings greater-than expected-dilution, so buying the outstanding common shares is not for the risk-averse.
• In Real Estate Services: OPEN shares jumped announced that Kaz Nejatian, COO of Shopify, has been appointed Chief Executive Officer and member of the Board of Directors. Co-Founders Keith Rabois and Eric Wu are returning to the Board of Directors, with Rabois taking on the role of Chairman.
• In Crypto: CRCL shares jumped as Canaccord noted USDC in circulation continues a solid uptrend post its IPO, marking growth to ~$72B currently, up 107% y/y. In Canaccord’s view, growth here can be mostly attributed to broad-based activity in digital assets over the last few months, especially within crypto capital markets. QTD USDC in circulation is up ~16% sequentially, currently standing at ~$72.3B. BMNR shares outperformed following a continued rebound in Ethereum prices. Stablecoin provide Figure Technology (FIGR) opened its 31.5M share IPO at $36 after pricing at $25.

• In Apartment REITs: Truist upgraded AVB to Buy from Hold, and downgraded ELME to Hold saying they believe the ELME downgrade is straightforward: the company is liquidating, and the stock is up 12% YTD (vs. 2% VNQ) to $17.10ps versus what they think will be around $18.50ps returned to shareholders over the next 15 months. They think AVB shares are undervalued at a historically low FFO multiple and 5.9% implied cap rate, despite healthy projected earnings growth amid a dearth of new supply in the company’s markets.

• KZIA said its experimental cancer therapy, paxalisib, destroyed large tumor cell clusters in blood samples taken from patients with advanced HER2-positive breast cancer.
• MAZE shares surged after saying its experimental oral drug, MZE782, showed strong results in an early-stage trial. The drug, which blocks a protein called SLC6A19, led to a sharp increase in the amounts of phenylalanine and glutamine excreted in urine; plans to begin mid-stage studies in 2026.
• RNA shares tumbled after announcing a $500M common stock offering.
• RVMD announced key clinical updates from Daraxonrasib Monotherapy and Daraxonrasib plus chemo support planned initiation of three-arm phase 3 trial in Q4.
• RPRX provides commentary on long term guidance ahead of investor day today, company notes based on its current plans, the company’s goal is to deliver at least $4.7B of Portfolio Receipts in 2030, consistent with the target announced in 2022, which represents double-digit growth from 2020 to 2030.

• In Medical Research/Life Sciences: TMO was upgraded to Overweight at Barclays and raised tgt to $550 from $490 saying absolute and relative valuation has come in to more attractive levels; end market demand is stable and expected to improve modestly over the next few years and reset mid-term guidance sets a floor. TEM shares jumped after receives FDA special 510(k) clearance for updated Tempus pixel device.
• In Healthcare Services: shares of CCRN declined after the Federal Trade Commission announced it would be holding a closed-door meeting on Wednesday. Seeking Alpha noted although the exact topic of the meeting wasn’t disclosed, investors may be concerned that the subject of the meeting is Aya Healthcare’s planned $615 million purchase of Cross-Country Healthcare. https://tinyurl.com/4c2fs6vt

• In Chemicals: ECVT announced that it entered into a definitive agreement to sell its advanced materials and catalysts segment to FTI for a purchase price of $556M. DOW said at conference today the macro environment is consistent with Q2 earnings and export momentum continues to recover following a dip in Q2 from tariff uncertainties, with July setting a new monthly record.
• In Aerospace & Defense: RCAT announced that the Black Widow System, developed by its subsidiary Teal Drones, has been approved and added to the NATO Support and Procurement Agency (NSPA) catalogue.
• In Industrials: ENVX shares declined after the company disclosed the pricing of $300 million in 4.75% convertible senior notes due 2030 – offering will generate net proceeds of $290.4M, $37.7M of which will be used to pay the cost of capped call transactions with the initial buyers of the notes.

• In Hardware: AAPL was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at DA Davidson with $250 tgt as believes Apple is taking a significant role in the artificial intelligence ecosystem and the iPhone undergoing a major upgrade cycle are unlikely in the near term.
• In Telecom & Satellite: IRDM downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James and cut tgt to $26 from $39, following the news that SpaceX Starlink is buying 50 MHz of AWS-4 and H-Block spectrum in the U.S. from SATS; AMT files for two-part senior notes offering.
• In AI/Data Center: NBIS prices $1B public offering of class a ordinary shares at $92.50 per share; prices $1.375b 1.00% convertible notes due 2030 and $1.375b 2.75% convertible notes due 2030. The Information reported BABA and BIDU have started using internally designed chips to train their AI models, partly replacing those made by NVDA citing people with direct knowledge of the matter. https://tinyurl.com/3r25rkf7

• NVDA was upgraded to Buy at DA Davidson with $210 PT saying they believe the growth in AI compute demand will drive enough demand to sustain NVDA’s growth into next year and likely beyond. While there are still several cross-currents, the firm believes those are not enough to change that trajectory.