Early Look

Thursday, September 18, 2025

Another day, another record on tap for the S&P 500, Nasdaq Comp and Dow Jones Industrials, as there is no quit in stock markets a day after the FOMC delivered a highly anticipated 25-bps rate cut and dot plots pointed to another 50-bps worth of cuts the remainder of 2025 to help a sputtering jobs market. Powell, however, tempered aggressively easing expectations of market participants, saying the cut was a risk-management move, and the central bank did not need to move quickly on rates. Still, investors are looking at the dovish call and ripping global markets overnight. US Treasury yields rose across the curve, with the 2-year and 10-year yields added 3.7 bps and 4.3 bps, respectively yesterday, but are down slightly this morning. The dollar index reversed a loss after Fed Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the central bank’s 25 basis point cut to 4-4.25% and dovish guidance for the rest of the year and is slightly higher this morning. Bitcoin and other crypto assets are also moving higher this morning. Overall, another euphoric feeling to kick off the trading day despite markets in a seasonally weak period of the year (last 2-weeks of September are generally weak). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index surged 513 points to 45,303, the Shanghai Index fell -44 points to 3,831, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -363 points to 26,544. In Europe, the German DAX is jumping 286 points to 23,645, while the FTSE 100 rises 17 points to 9,225. Several news items overnight with another IPO pricing, an M&A deal in biotech, better drug data for NVO, lower guidance for steelmaker NUE, and better earnings for recent IPO BLSH.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 260.42 points, or 0.57%, to 46,018.32
• The Nasdaq Composite slipped -72.63 points, or 0.33%, to 22,261.33
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 4.31 points, or 0.18% to 2,407.34

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.95M 9prior 1.939M)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Philly Fed Business Index for September…est. 2.5 (prior -0.3)
• 10:00 AM ET                Leading Index M/M for August…est. (-0.1%)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 4:00 PM ET                   Net Long-term TIC Flows for July

• Earnings After the Close: FDX LEN RSSS SCHL

• DA Davidson 24th Diversified Industrials and Services Conference, 9/17-9/19, in Nashville, TN
• Deutsche Bank BioPharma Corporate Day, 9/18-9/19

• Cracker Barrel (CBRL) Q4 adj EPS $0.74 vs est. $0.80, adj EBITDA $55.7Mm vs est. $53.4Mm on revs $868Mm vs est. $855.3Mm, comp restaurant sales +5.4%, comp retail sales -0.8%; guides FY revs $3.35-3.45B vs est. $3.519B, assumes comp traffic -4% to -7%, adj EBITDA $150-190Mm vs est. $235.87Mm; authorized new share repurchase program, may repurchase up to $100m of its outstanding common stock.
• Nike (NKE) was upgraded to Outperform with $90 PT at RBC Capital saying the company is taking the right steps, with clear improvement in Running Footwear offer, positive channel checks, survey findings and a refreshed organizational structure (SLT) that should support faster and more accountable decision-making.
• Super Group (SGHC) raises FY25 revenue view to $2.13B-$2.20B from $2.0B (est. $1.86B) and raises FY25 adjusted EBITDA view to $550M-$560M from $470M-$480M saying continued momentum in sports betting, supported by optimized pricing and more efficient trading, was complemented by consistent engagement in casino and improving operational leverage across the Group’s core international markets.

• NRG Energy (NRG) raises 2025 guidance to $7.55-$8.15 (from $6.75-$7.75) vs. consensus $7.79; raises FY25 Adj Ebitda view to $3.88B-$4.03B from $3.725B-$3.975B; raises FY25 Adj net income guidance to $1.47B-$1.59B; said revised guidance reflects exceptional business performance across all segments and favorable weather
• Nucor Corporation (NUE) guides Q3 EPS in the range of $2.05-$2.15 per diluted share vs. est. $2.59; said Q3 earnings are expected to decrease across all three of our operating segments as compared to Q2. The expected decrease in the steel mills segment earnings is primarily due to lower volumes coupled with margin compression; steel products segment earnings are expected to decrease due to higher average costs per ton on stable average realized pricing and volumes and raw materials segment is expected to have lower earnings in the third quarter of 2025 due to lower profitability in our scrap processing operations.
• Red Cat Holdings (RCAT) announces proposed public offering of common stock; said intends to use net proceeds from the offering for general corporate and working capital purposes.

• Bullish (BLSH) Q2 EPS $0.93 on revs $57.0M vs. est. $55.8M; Q2 trading volume totaled $179.6B vs. $133B and sees Q3 trading volume $133B-$142B; guides Q3 adj revs $69M to $76M and adj Ebitda $25M-$28M.
• FactSet (FDS) Q4 adj EPS $4.05 vs. consensus $4.13; Q4 revs rose 6.2% y/y to $596.9M vs. est. $593.44M; sees FY26 adjusted EPS $16.90-$17.60 vs. est. $18.27; sees FY26 revenue $2.423B-$2.448B, vs. consensus $2.45B and organic ASV is expected to grow in the range of $100M-$150M during fiscal 2026.
• Radian Group Inc. (RDN) said it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Inigo Limited, a highly profitable Lloyd’s specialty insurer, for $1.7 billion in a primarily all-cash transaction.

• Arvinas (ARVN) and Pfizer (PFE) have jointly agreed to out-license the commercialization rights to vepdegestrant to a third party. Together, the companies have begun seeking a partner with the capabilities and expertise to maximize the commercial potential of vepdegestrant.
• Biogen (BIIB) receives European commission approval for Zurzuvae® (zuranolone), the first and only treatment approved for women with postpartum depression in Europe.
• Blackstone (BX) and TPG Inc. (TPG) have revived their interest in acquiring Hologic (HOLX), Bloomberg reported late Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Blackstone and TPG have re-engaged with Hologic’s board in recent weeks about a potential takeover. https://tinyurl.com/2xf8a8mb
• Novo Nordisk’s (NVO) Ozempic reduces the risk of heart attack, stroke and death by 23% in people with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease compared to Eli Lilly’s (LLY) rival drug dulaglutide (also known as Trulicity), the company said Thursday.
• Rezolute Inc. (RZLT) Q4 EPS ($0.26) vs est. ($0.22), op exp $25.85Mm; says remains on track to report topline results from the Sunrize trial in December.

• InterDigital (IDCC) approved an increase in the quarterly cash dividend from $0.60 from $0.70.
• IonQ (IONQ) announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to advance the development and deployment of quantum technologies in space.
• Meta Platforms Inc. (META) unveiled its first version of smart glasses with a built-in screen as the latest model, the $799 Meta Ray-Ban Display, features a screen in the right lens. It can show text messages, video calls, turn-by-turn directions in maps and visual results from queries to Meta’s AI service.
• Nano Dimension (NNDM) reported Q2 revs rose 72.4% y/y to $25.83M while Gross Margin 27.3%, down from 44.7% y/y, adjusted Gross Margin 44.7%, down from 46.1% y/y and adjusted EBITDA loss (-$16.7M), from a loss of (-$14.6M) y/y.
• Netskope (NTSK) 47.8M share IPO priced at $19.00, the high end of $17.00-$19.00 target range, valuing the company at $7.3B.
• Nexstar (NXST) ABC Affiliates to Preempt “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” Indefinitely Beginning last night, Nexstar strongly objects to recent comments made by Mr. Kimmel concerning the killing of Charlie Kirk and will replace the show with other programming in its ABC-affiliated markets.