Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, September 18, 2025

U.S. stock futures surged overnight and extend gains on the open, adding to the euphoric state of the stock market after the Fed delivered on its expected 25bps rate cut Wednesday and indicated the likelihood of another 50-bps worth of cuts the remainder of 2025 before 1 cut in 2026 and another cut in 2027 despite GDP & inflation forecasts edging higher in aggregate through 2027 while unemployment edged lower. A notable jump in Treasury yields from yesterday/this morning as the 10-year yield +5bps to 4.12% (after hitting below 3.99% yesterday after the FOMC cut); the 2-yr yield +3.7bps to 3.584%. Massive early strength in technology this morning (XLK), led by strength in semis (SOX) after NVDA said it will invest $5B in Intel, paying $23.28 per share for Intel common stock, planning to design custom data center central processors that Nvidia will package with its AI chips. Most S&P sectors are higher overall with modest weakness in Materials (XLB) and Consumer Staples (XLP). The lower rate outlook buoying the crypto sector this morning with Bitcoin and Ethereum rising. In economic data, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, reversing the prior week’s jump. Gold prices fell on Thursday due to profit-taking, after scaling a record peak in the previous session. Just more “risk-on” bets for global stock markets into option expiration this Friday and despite a seasonally weak period for markets.

• Philadelphia Fed business conditions September surged to 23.2 (above consensus 2.5) and vs August -0.3, while prices paid index for September tumbled to 46.8 vs August 66.8; strong new orders index September 12.4 vs August -1.9 and employment index September 5.6 vs August 5.9; six-month business conditions September 31.5 vs August 25.0 and xix-month capital expenditures outlook September 12.5 vs August 38.4.

• In Quantum compute: IONQ shares extend recent gains after announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the U.S. Department of Energy to advance the development and deployment of quantum technologies in space; RGTI announced that it was awarded a three-year, $5.8 million contract from the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) to advance superconducting quantum networking.
• In Insurance: ALL estimated catastrophe losses for month of August of $213M or $168M, after-tax; PGR was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Wells Fargo on its view that PIF growth should continue to slow reflective of less rate taking in the market and other players growing Geico has been in growth mode this year) and also seasonality (with growth typically stronger earlier in the year). RDN said it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Inigo Limited, a highly profitable Lloyd’s specialty insurer, for $1.7 billion in a primarily all-cash transaction; AXS approves new $400M share repurchase program.
• In Nuclear/Utility: NRG raised 2025 guidance to $7.55-$8.15 (from $6.75-$7.75) vs. consensus $7.79; raises FY25 Adj Ebitda view to $3.88B-$4.03B from $3.725B-$3.975B; raises FY25 Adj net income guidance to $1.47B-$1.59B; said revised guidance reflects exceptional business performance across all segments. PCG was upgraded from Underweight to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley saying they are more comfortable with PCG`s investment case – the replenished fund coupled with the current ~50% discount to the sector P/E offer a much more favorable risk reward compared to when it downgraded the stock back in Feb 2025. LEU, OKLO, SMR, NNE all seeing strength in nuclear space again on AI investment power needs.

• BLSH +8%; as Q2 EPS $0.93 on revs $57.0M vs. est. $55.8M; Q2 trading volume totaled $179.6B vs. $133B and sees Q3 trading volume $133B-$142B; guides Q3 adj revs $69M to $76M and adj EBITDA $25M-$28M.
• CRWD +10%; held its Fal.Con Day 2 and Investor Session where provided FY27 NNARR guidance of 20% y/y vs consensus +14% y/y, introduced a FY36 ARR target of $20B (15% CAGR); several analysts raise price tgt.
• ETNB +83%; agreed to be acquired by Roche (RHHBY) in a deal up to $3.5 billion in cash, including $14.50 a share at closing and additional payments of up to $6 a share, subject to performance measures.
• INTC +23%; after NVDA said it will invest $5B in Intel, paying $23.28 per share for Intel common stock, a price slightly below the $24.90 at which Intel shares closed on Wednesday. Under the plan, Intel is planning to design custom data center central processors that Nvidia will package with its AI chips, known as GPUs.
• IONQ +5%; after announced the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the U.S. Department of Energy to advance the development and deployment of quantum technologies in space.
• NVO +6%; after saying Ozempic reduces the risk of heart attack, stroke and death by 23% in people with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease compared to LLY’s rival drug dulaglutide (Trulicity).
• SGHC +1%; after raises FY25 revenue view to $2.13B-$2.20B from $2.0B (est. $1.86B) and raises FY25 adjusted EBITDA view to $550M-$560M from $470M-$480M.

• CBRL -2%; reported Q4 EPS below ests but Ebitda and revs just above consensus but weaker FY25 rev guidance of $3.35-3.45B vs est. $3.519B.
• DRI -10%; reported Q1 adj EPS $1.97, missing the $2.00 estimates with in-line sales of $3.04B and reiterated its annual adjusted EPS expectations of $10.50 to $10.70 but slightly raised its annual sales view to grow 7.5% to 8.5%, compared to the previous 7% to 8% forecast.
• FDS -4%; reported mixed Q4 results while forecast annual revenue between $2.42B-$2.45B, compared to analysts’ average estimate of the $2.45B and forecast 2026 adj diluted EPS in the range of $16.90-$17.60, lower than analysts’ expectation of $18.26.
• NUE 4%; guides Q3 EPS in the range of $2.05-$2.15 per diluted share vs. est. $2.59; said Q3 earnings are expected to decrease across all three of our operating segments as compared to Q2.
• RCAT -10%; priced 15.625M share offering at $9.60 per share; the gross proceeds from the offering to the Company are expected to be approximately $150M.
• REPL -40%; shares tumbled after announced that the company completed a Type A meeting with the FDA on September 16th to discuss the complete response letter (CRL) for the Company’s Biologics License Application (BLA) for RP1 in combination with nivolumab for the treatment of advanced melanoma.
• UEC -4%; after short-seller Spruce Point Capital announces “strong sell” research opinion on the company saying, “We applaud and agree with the Trump administration’s desire to strengthen domestic uranium capabilities, but do not believe that UEC is the right company to lead the industry’s revival”