Early Look

Friday, September 19, 2025

After another stunning day of stock market gains Thursday, U.S. futures are flat heading into key trade talks between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping by phone discuss an array of issues including TikTok. Reports of the deal have suggested that a consortium led by tech giant Oracle (ORCL), venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, and private equity firm Silver Lake Management will spearhead the attempt to keep TikTok operational in the US. The call between the leaders is set for Friday, reportedly at 9 a.m. ET. U.S. stocks posted record highs again for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq while the Smallcap Russell 2000 closed at its best levels ever, topping its prior record close of 2,442.74 points reached more than three years ago. The story of the day Thursday was tech outperformed (SOX up 10^th time in 11 days at record highs) and small caps surged, with the Russell 2000 hitting its first record high since 2021 as traders on Wall Street cheered the prior day move by the Fed to cut rates by 25-bps, along with an outlook of 2 more cuts this year and one each in ‘26/’27. A giant pop in Intel after Nvidia’s $5B stake reinforced the AI bid, lifted chip stocks and nuclear power names. In news overnight, FedEx (FDX) gained 5% after reporting quarterly profit and revenue above Wall Street estimates, as cost-cutting and strength in domestic deliveries helped offset weaker international volumes. Meanwhile in the housing sector Lennar (LEN) reported weaker quarterly revs and softer deliveries. No major US economic data today. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -257 points to 45,045, the Shanghai Index slipped -11 points to 3,820, and the Hang Seng Index was little changed at 26,545. In Europe, the German DAX is down -40 points to 23,633, while the FTSE 100 is up a few points to 9,231.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 124.10 points, or 0.27%, to 46,142.42
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 209.40 points, or 0.94%, to 22,470.73
• The Russell 2000 Index surged 60.35 points, or 2.51%, to 2,467.70.

• Deutsche Bank BioPharma Corporate Day, 9/18-9/19
• S&P Annual Review, Russell Quarterly Rebalance, Nasdaq Quarterly Rebalance, FTSE Semi-Annual Rebalance, S&P/TSX Quarterly Rebalance, 9/19

• Japan’s headline CPI rose by 2.7% from a year earlier (est. 2.8%; prev. 3.1%), while both core and core-core moderated to 2.7% and 3.3% from 3.1% and 3.4% respectively, while matching consensus.
• Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries rose to an all-time peak in July, data from the Treasury Department showed on Thursday, hitting record highs for a third straight month, led by gains in holdings from Japan and the United Kingdom. Holdings of U.S. Treasuries surged to $9.159 trillion in July, up from $9.126 trillion the previous month. Compared with a year earlier, Treasuries owned by foreigners were up nearly 9%. China’s holdings of Treasuries, on the other hand, dropped to $730.7B, it’s lowest since December 2008 when the world’s second largest economy held $727.4B.

• Scholastic (SCHL) Q1 adj EPS ($2.52) vs est. ($2.44), adj EBITDA ($55.7Mm) vs est. ($62.76Mm) on revs $225.6Mm vs est. $238.91Mm; affirms FY guide on improved adj EBITDA.

• Copper prices are edging higher on signs of improving demand from top metals consumer China, but down -2% since hitting $10,192.50, a 15-month high on Monday.
• Hess Midstream LP (HESM) said it expects lower capital spending in 2026-2027; expect long-term growth in gas throughput volumes through at least 2027 in Bakken; sees relatively flat adj EBITDA in 2026 as compared to 2025, with growth in 2027; sees 2025 gas processing volumes are now expected to average between 440 to 450 mmcfe of natural gas per day.
• In the E&C sector (PWR, MTZ, PRIM), the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced today the Speed to Power initiative, to accelerate the speed of large-scale grid infrastructure project development for both transmission and generation. The Speed to Power initiative will help ensure the United States has the power needed to win the global artificial intelligence (AI) race while continuing to meet growing demand for affordable, reliable and secure energy.
• UPS (UPS) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital.

• Genworth Financial (GNW) announces new $350M share repurchase authorization
• Jackson (JXN) announces $1B increase to common share repurchase authorization.
• Lincoln National (LNC) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley.
• LPL Financial LLC (LPLA) total advisory and brokerage assets at the end of August were $2.26 trillion, an increase of $324.1 billion, or 16.7%, compared to the end of July 2025. Total net new assets for August were $292.8 billion, which included $275.0 billion of acquired net new assets resulting from the acquisition of Commonwealth Financial. Total organic net new assets for August were $17.8 billion, +11% growth.
• MetLife (MET) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Sandler.
• Willis Towers Watson (WTW) board approves $1.5B increase to share repurchase authority.

• Reviva Pharmaceuticals (RVPH) announces common stock, warrants offering.

• Cohu, Inc. (COHU) announced its Eclipse platform has been selected by a leading U.S. based semiconductor manufacturer & foundry services company for production testing of next-generation processor devices.
• Texas Instruments (TXN) raises quarterly dividend 4% to $1.42 from $1.36 per share.
• Chinese AI developer DeepSeek said it spent $294,000 on training its R1 model, much lower than figures reported for U.S. rivals, in a paper that is likely to reignite debate over Beijing’s place in the race to develop artificial intelligence – Reuters https://tinyurl.com/2wvmesf9