Daily Commentary: September 24, 2025

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Nice Intraday Moves Net Out

Posted by Pete Stolcers on September 24
www.oneoption.com

The nice rally Monday was erased after Powell’s speech.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – This is a light news week so the market is going to latch on to any news it can. Monday the market rallied on the notion that there could be two more rate cuts this year. That possibility was revealed last week during the FOMC statement. Yesterday, Powell said that there is no guarantee that the Fed will cut twice this year and the market gave back Monday’s gains.

Without a nice quick drop of 5% or more in the next few weeks, this is the type of price action we can expect the rest of the year. A government shutdown is possible, but I doubt that it will produce this level of selling pressure. This is a temporary event and politicians always strike a deal at the last minute.

Buyers will get anxious as we get closer to the end of October. They have been waiting for a dip and they have not gotten one. They don’t want to miss a year end rally and prices continue to float higher. Seasonality will shift from bearish to bullish in the next few weeks. This leads me to believe that we are not likely to get much of a dip and that the current pattern is likely to continue.

On gaps up, wait for a bid check and buy on support. Do not chase. On gaps down be ready to take action earlier. This is our ideal set up and it gives us a chance to enter well.

Support is the low from Monday and resistance is the high from Tuesday. This is a fairly wide range and during a light news week we might stay in it. Overseas markets were mixed, but China was strong.

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