Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, September 30, 2025

Stocks slip to kick off the final trading day of month/quarter but remain on track for its 5^th straight month of gains while Treasury yields are steady ahead of key jobs data later this week and a potential government shutdown tonight if no short-term funding deal can be put into place. The U.S. gov’t appears on course for its first government shutdown since 2018 after talks between President Trump and congressional leaders ended without progress less than 24 hours before the Oct. 1 deadline. Vice President Vance blamed Democrats for refusing to accept a short-term funding bill, while Democrats insist any deal must include an extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies and reversal of Medicaid cuts tied to Trump’s tax law. The 2-year yield fell 2 basis points to 3.62%, the 5-year yield declined 1 basis point to 3.73%, and the 10-year slipped 1 basis point as well to 4.13%. Gold rebounds to new record highs after early profit-taking and set for best month in 5 years. In oil news, prices fall a second day after surging last week, as reports indicate OPEC+ is likely to consider a larger oil production increase of 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for November (would be 3x the 137K increase agreed in Oct) at its meeting next Sunday as rising oil prices encourage the group to try to regain more market share. OPEC+ could consider an increase of as much as 500,000 bpd for November, one source notes. Healthcare leading markets early while Energy is the biggest drag in the S&P for a 2^nd day (after rallying last week).

Tariffs are also back in focus this week after President Trump ordered 10% duties on imports of softwood timber and lumber as well as 25% levies on some wood furniture products last night. The moves follow tariff headlines last week including: 1) 100% tariffs on patented drugs next week unless companies build plants in the United States; 2) new industry-specific tariffs including a 25% tariff on Heavy Trucks; and 3) imposing a 50% Tariff on all kitchen cabinets, bathroom vanities, and associated products, starting October 1st, 2025 as well as charging a 30% Tariff on Upholstered Furniture; 4) imposing a 100% Tariff on any and all movies that are made outside of the United States.

• JOLTS job openings 7.227MM, vs. the expected 7.2MM and vs. prior 7.208MM; 157K more unemployed than job openings, the most since March 2021.
• Consumer Confidence Index slid to 94.2 in September from 97.8 in August (revised from 97.4), which was worse than the 96.0 consensus.
• July S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index for 20 cities (seasonally adjusted): (-0.1%) M/M vs. (-0.2%) consensus and (-0.2%) in June (revised from -0.3%), according to data released on Tuesday. Index for 20 cities (non-adjusted): +0.3% M/M vs. 0.0% in June. +1.8% Y/Y vs. +1.7% consensus and +2.2% in the prior month (revised from +2.1%).
• The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index fell (-0.1%) M/M in July, compared with the -0.2% expected and -0.2% prior (unrevised), according to data released on Tuesday. From a year ago, house prices gained 2.3%, decelerating from +2.6% Y/Y in June.

• In Industrial Metals: FCX was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank America with unchanged tgt of $42, coming away from meetings increasingly confident that the current valuation sufficiently prices the key risks around its temporarily halted Grasberg copper/gold mine in Indonesia. China’s state iron ore buyer has told major steelmakers and traders to temporarily pause purchases of any dollar-denominated seaborne iron ore cargoes from BHP, Bloomberg News reported. China is the world’s largest iron ore consumer and buys about 75% of global seaborne iron ore, while BHP is the world’s largest listed miner.
• In Brokers & Exchanges: HOOD released September trading volumes (through September 25), with equity, option contract, and Bitstamp exchange volumes tracking ahead of Keybanc’s September expectation, while Robinhood App crypto volume is tracking below. Separately, HOOD announced ~$2B of prediction markets volumes for Q2. JEF Q3 earnings rose 34% y/y to $224M on better revs up 22% y/y to $2.05B and also beat consensus.

• BKKT +13%; after Benchmark raised its PT to $40 saying shares still screening as inexpensive after rally, with upside optionality stemming from Three Big Drivers: Crypto Infrastructure, Bitcoin Treasury, and Stablecoin Payments.
• CELH +2%; was upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley saying they see another leg up in the stock driven by a greater than expected reacceleration in scanner and topline growth ahead. Brand Celsius has returned to growth following last year’s share slowdown, and the firm expects further improvement
• CRH +4%; shares rose after saying it now expects 2026-2030 average annual revenue growth between 7% and 9%; also reaffirmed 2025 forecast, including adj. EBITDA of $7.5B-$7.7B.
• CRWV +14%; CoreWeave, Meta Platforms in new order form under 2023 master services agreement; Meta initially commits to pay up to about $14.2B through 2031 under order form.
• PATH +12%; after announcing a partnership with SNOW, uniting UiPath’s Agentic Automation platform with Snowflake Cortex. UiPath also announced a collaboration with MSFTbacked OpenAI to build a ChatGPT connector integrating OpenAI frontier models with enterprise customer workflows, powered by UiPath enterprise orchestration.
• SATS +2%; shares rose after VZ is said to be in discussions with the company about purchasing some of its wireless spectrum per Bloomberg.
• UNFI +12%; reported Q4 sales $7.7B vs. est. $7.64B and EPS loss of (-$0.11) were narrower than the expected (-$0.18) loss and said costs related to the cyber incident earlier this year impacted Q4 results
• WOLF +33%; after the chipmaker successfully emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy with a substantially reduced debt load.

• BTBT -7%; after the company priced its 2030 4% convertible senior notes at $4.16 per share.
• CART -6%; was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BTIG citing ongoing negative competitive developments saying the week started with another competitive announcement with an ongoing push into the grocery delivery category by AMZN.
• DKNG -7%; along with FLUT, SRAD weakness among others on reports Kalshi Football volumes are ramping since week 1 and now they are launching parlays to complement the Moneyline bets. Also note, HOOD announced ~$2B of prediction markets volumes for Q2 in Sept trading volume updates while also said explores launching prediction markets outside the US.
• FLY -22%; after the company disclosed an incident during a test at its facility in Texas that resulted in the loss of a rocket stage.
• MTN -5%; reported a disappointing F4Q, with FY26 Resort Adj. EBITDA guidance introduced -2% below Consensus at the midpoint while updated Epic Pass sales were slightly below prior guidance.
• SPOT -5%; as founder Daniel Ek will step down as CEO and become executive chairman on Jan 1, 2026; while co-presidents Gustav Söderström and Alex Norström will take over as co-CEOs, formalizing a structure in place since 2023. Separately, SPOT was downgraded to Neutral at Goldman Sachs.
• UUUU -7%; after announced its intent to offer $550M aggregate principal amount of Convertible Senior Notes due 2031 in a private placement.