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These have been the two driving market forces for decades and we will get a heavy dose of both in the next week.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – The market has been inching closer to the all-time high each day and earnings season is starting to unfold. In general, the results have been good, but the reactions have not had much of a market impact. That could change as mega cap tech stocks prepare to release.
Banks have been tapping the Feds repo facility and that is a sign that there could be some liquidity issues. This started after the bad loan write downs last week. Financial stocks have recovered so I am aware, but not overly concerned. This will prompt the Fed to ease next week and the Fed Fund Futures are pricing in a 97% chance for a 25 basis point rate cut.
The government shutdown continues and there is not any progress. The impact will grow each week and Trump said that he will not meet with Democrats until a CR is passed. If politicians can end the standoff, the market will rally.
Friday the government is going to post the CPI.
NFLX and TXN released earnings yesterday and both had negative reactions. To be fair, neither stock has performed well during the last quarter. After the close today, TSLA and IBM will post results.
We haven’t had any updates on the trade negotiations between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant and his Chinese counterpart. Trump has set a deadline of November 1st, but that could change. I believe the odds of a positive outcome are higher than a negative outcome. Both nations are mutually interested in forging a deal.
The market is flat this morning and so were overseas markets. Resistance is still at the all-time high and there is not any news to push the market through. We are constantly waiting for the next driver and the market is trapped in a range.
We have entered a seasonally bullish period of the year.
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