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Chinese Trade Talks Progressing
www.oneoption.com
The market is making a new all-time high this morning.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – The market has been trapped in the October 10th range for two weeks and that sell-off was triggered by a breakdown in trade negotiations between China and the US. Today, everyone is playing nice in the sandbox and the market is making a new high. The tone is friendly and China does not want to decouple from the US.
We don’t have any details, but it appears that Xi and Trump will meet in South Korea on October 30th.
Trump has broken off trade negotiations with Canada because of an anti-tariff ad they are going to run ahead of the Supreme Court’s decision.
The government shutdown continues and according to the major media outlets, Democrats are losing the battle in the polls and their approval rating since the shutdown is declining while Trump’s remains steady. The pressure is mounting and the 2026 elections are a year away. If the CR is passed the market will rally.
Next week the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The overnight repo facility has been tapped by banks and there was another subprime failure yesterday. This could prompt two rate cuts this year.
The CPI came in at .3% which is slightly better than feared. It is still above the Fed’s target, but the market rallied on the news.
Earnings season will kick into high gear next week. So far the reactions have not had a major market impact.
The market is making a new all-time high. From a swing trading standpoint it is difficult to sell naked puts during the heat of earnings season, but as more companies announce, there will be more stocks to pick from. The positions I have on took some heat, but they were never in danger. Today they are poised to rebound.
From a day trading standpoint, it is always risky to chase gaps up to a new all-time high. I don’t believe the news justifies the move so I will wait patiently for any pullback. If this turns into a gap and go, I will let it go. If the market holds the gains for an hour, I will consider buying. A dip will provide us with the best trading opportunity. Wait for support, find stocks with relative strength and if more than half of the gap is preserved, be ready to buy.
We needed to breakout from the October 10th range and it looks like we are going to do that.
Support is at the previous high and resistance is at SPY $680.
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