Daily Commentary: October 28, 2025

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ADP Reports Solid Job Growth

Posted by Pete Stolcers on October 28
www.oneoption.com

The government shut down has left us in the dark when it comes to employment. Job growth is not as bad as feared.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The big overnight report was a preliminary reading from ADP. They process paychecks for small and medium sized businesses and they reported that 55K jobs were created in the private sector during the last month. That is a huge improvement from the -32K they reported the previous month. They will officially release their report next Wednesday.

Unions are starting to put pressure on the Democrats to pass the continuing resolution. That is a huge part of their base and 3 Democrats have already crossed over. Seven more are needed and Republicans have been courting moderates from the other side of the aisle. When the shutdown ends, the market will rally.

Trump is meeting with Xi on Thursday and he continues to be optimistic. If talks between trade negotiators had not gone well earlier this week, they would not have met.

Tomorrow the Fed is likely to cut interest rates and they could pave the way for another rate cut this year.

Earnings releases have ramped up and GOOG, META and MSFT will report after the close tomorrow.

The market is gapping up another 18 S&P 500 points this morning. The last two days we’ve seen a move higher and then the market sits. We did see an additional 20 points of follow through late yesterday. I view this move higher as a sellers boycott. We are in a seasonally bullish period and Asset Managers want to mark portfolios up into year end. Those who are under-allocated are playing catch-up.

There’s nothing to stand in the way of the rally. The economic news is light due to the shutdown, earnings have been good, we are likely to get a rate cut tomorrow, trade talks with China will continue, the market is through all resistance and we are in a seasonally bullish period.

Look for opportunities to buy.

Support is the prior day’s high and resistance is….?

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