Closing Recap

Friday, October 31, 2025

U.S. stocks manage another weekly gain with Friday’s advance, closing out October in positive territory (S&P now up 6 months in a row) as the S&P 500, Nasdaq Comp and Dow Jones Industrials all remain close to all-time highs heading into the best month for stocks historically. Lower interest rates by the Fed mid-week, cutting 25 bps was expected, but a warning by Chairman Powell that a December rate cut is not a guarantee due to the lack of economic data raised some mild concerns for markets. Earnings this week were massive with more than 35% of the SPX reporting (many beats) and of the Mag 7 names – strong moves to the upside for GOOGL and AMZN, while META fell notably, and MSFT, AAPL with modest moves in comparison. Note 60% (or about 300) of S&P 500 companies having reported to date with roughly another 130 next week. Also of note, the first in-person meeting in six years between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping brought a round of mutual concessions on issues underpinning recent tensions (rare earth, fentanyl, soybeans). The U.S. held off on raising tariffs by 100% — a step previewed before the meeting — and delayed any further increases to reciprocal tariffs. Both sides suspended port fees that they imposed on each other. Overall, U.S. China tariffs fell from 57% to 47%.

For the week, the S&P 500 gained 0.71%, the Nasdaq climbed 2.24%, and the Dow climbed 0.75%. For the month the S&P 500 gained 2.27%, the Nasdaq climbed 4.7%, and the Dow climbed 2.51%. The S&P climbs for sixth straight month, longest streak since August 2021, the Nasdaq composite climbs for seventh straight month, longest streak since January 2018, the Dow climbs for sixth straight month, longest run since January 2018.

Fed speakers were cautious again today, but that didn’t stop stock markets from going higher. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid both underscored discomfort within the central bank over the direction of policy and suggest a rising bar for another rate cut at its December 9-10 meeting, unless something changes dramatically in the economy. “I did not see a need to cut rates this week,” Logan told a Dallas Fed banking conference. Logan however is not a policy-voting member this year. Schmid, who does have a vote on the policy-setting committee this year and dissented on this week’s move, explained on Friday in a written release that he, like Logan, feels the labor market is largely in balance. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she had opposed the central bank cutting interest rates this week.

Too much power for one company? Michael Burry of Scion Asset Management noted per Bloomberg that Nvidia Corp. (NVDA), this week became the first company whose market value exceeded $5 trillion. Its value now accounts for nearly one-tenth of the S&P 500 and exceeds the gross domestic products of India, Japan and Germany. He echoes the comments of many on just how concentrated this stock market rally has been, with the biggest tech names making up most of the earnings growth, capex spending (on data centers to power AI), and market cap weighting of the S&P and Nasdaq, not giving a true picture of the broader economy.

Notable stats showing the unreal run we continue to see for US stock markets. 1) $QQQ has been up on 8 straight Mondays and up 1%+ on each of the last 3.” as per @Bespoke earlier. 2) @KobeissiLetter noted earlier, “the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, has gapped up at the open on 69% of all trading days over the last 6 months, the highest percentage since 1997. This percentage has risen +20 points since the April low. This is also slightly higher than during the Dot-Com run in 1999.” 3) lastly, RyanDetrick tweets: “When the S&P 500 is up more than 15% YTD heading into November, it turns out November does even better than normal (2.7% vs 1.9%). But the real impressive feat is the Nov/DEC period has been higher 20 out of 21 times. Strength = strength.”

***Friendly reminder – turn your clocks back one hour this Saturday night at 2:00 am!

• China’s Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0 in October, down 0.8 points from the preceding month to its lowest since April and remaining in contraction for the seventh consecutive month.
• China’s Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was little changed, rising to 50.1 from 50 previously into marginal expansion. The services sector was relatively firm (50.2).

• Treasury yields slipped from yesterday highs, with the 10-year down at 4.08% from highs around 4.13% Thursday, but still up about 10-bps on the week after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell poured cold water on the optimism for another 25-basis-point ease in December. The 2-year yield was up about 11bps from last week closing prices. On Friday, markets estimated a 62% chance of a further rate cut in December, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, sharply down from the 90% before the FOMC meeting.
• Bitcoin prices bounced on Friday back around $110,000 but ended October with a loss of roughly -5%, snapping a seven-year streak of gains for the month. Bitcoin fell as low as $104,782.88 during the October 10-11 period, after setting a fresh record high just days earlier above $126,000. Despite its October decline, bitcoin is still up more than 16% so far this year.

• In Food & Beverages: HSY was upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at Piper saying valuation looks more appropriate while the company gave initial plans to be on-algorithm in 2026, adding some better visibility to its outlook.
• Consumer Products/Staples: CL reported in-line sales for Q3 while adj gross profit margin fell -190bps, and cut its outlook for annual organic sales growth to be 1% to 2%, down from earlier forecast of growth at the low end of a 2% to 4% range; said continues to expect an impact of about $75M from tariff-related costs; CHD Q3 sales $1.59B topped the $1.54B estimate as domestic sales of consumer products rose 2.3% on an organic basis from a year ago, driven by a 3.7% growth in volumes; raises 2025 net sales to grow about 1.5%, up from its prior view of flat to a 2% rise. NWL shares fell after guiding FY25 net sales to decline between (5%-4.5%), worse than prior view of a (-3% to 2%) fall, lowered EPS view to $0.56-$0.60 from prior $0.66-$0.70 after Q3 sales fell -7.2% y/y to $1.8B missing the $1.8B estimate and sees incremental cash tariff cost of approximately $180M y/y.

• CVE Q3 profit C$1.29B vs. C$820M y/y driven by higher upstream production and refinery throughput volumes; posts Q3 total upstream production at 832,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), up from 771,300 boepd a year earlier; reports Q3 total downstream throughput at 710,700 barrels per day (bpd), compared with 642,900 bpd a year earlier.
• CVX Q3 adj EPS $1.85 vs. est. $1.69; Q3 revs $49.73B vs. est. $47.42B; achieved record production of 4.1 mln BOE per day, a 21% increase yr/yr, driven by the acquisition of Hess and increased output in the Permian Basin and Gulf of America; Adjusted free cash flow rose over 50% yr/yr, aided by asset sales and loan repayments from TCO.
• XOM Q3 adj EPS $1.88 vs. est. $1.81; Q3 revs $85.29B vs. est. $83.6B helped by higher oil and gas production in Guyana and the Permian Basin which offset lower oil prices; raised its fourth quarter dividend by 4% to $1.03 per share; says on track to achieve over $18B in cumulative structural cost savings by 2030 end; excluding acquisitions, expects FY cash CAPEX slightly below lower end of $27B to $29B.
• In Solar/Utilities: for FSLR reported Q3 revenue and EPS approximately aligned with expectations, Bookings ASPs increased q/q and y/y and narrowed/lowered FY25 guidance due to operational challenges, such as supply chain disruptions and contract terminations. In Utilities: Dominion (D) reported quarterly results; NI upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jefferies post earnings

• In Exchanges: CBOE reported Q3 EPS $2.67 above ests $2.54, and revs rose 14% y/y to $605.5M topping ests $590.5M and raised Fy organic rev growth view; said it would sell Cboe Australia and Cboe Canada and discontinue its U.S. and European corporate listings efforts. It also said it would cut costs in its U.S. and European ETP listings business. Cboe said the portfolio realignment would annually result in a 3% reduction in net revenue and an 8% to 10% reduction in adjusted operating expenses.
• In Crypto: COIN shares rose as reported better-than-expected results with revs of $1.87B topping consensus, as transaction revenue of $1.05B exceeded expectations; Operating expense of $1.4B (9% sequential decline) was better, Consumer trading volume rose 37% QoQ, to $59B (consumer Transaction revenue +30% QoQ to $844M), institutional Transaction revenue accelerated 122% q/q. RIOT reported Q3 results and laid out the first timeline for a Corsicana data center build-out, expecting two buildings supporting 112 MW of critical IT to be completed by Q127.
• In Insurance: Aquarian Holdings is in advanced talks to take private U.S. life insurer BHF in a $4 billion deal that could be announced as soon as this weekend, Financial Times reported on Thursday, citing sources familiar with the matter. https://tinyurl.com/3hw5rca9 ; AJG reported EPS: $2.32 vs consensus: $2.47 as the miss was driven by a lower-than-expected top line as well as lower than expected margins in the brokerage segment and organic growth was lower than expected.

• BCYC was downgraded to Sector Perform from OP at RBC Capital after reported Q325 earnings and RBC had a chance to catch up with management noting delays for Zele in UC as the Co aligns with regulators, and data taking more time to share in ‘5528 and ‘7480 in solid tumor combos.
• DNA said Bayer extended multi-year partnership to develop new biological products for farming. DNA says the tie-up, which began in 2017, focuses on developing microbial solutions that help crops absorb nitrogen, reducing reliance on synthetic fertilizers.
• EDIT and CRSP shares got a bounce after Bloomberg reported the FDA clears way for faster personalized gene editing treatments.
• GILD reported 2Q EPS of $2.47 (above consensus $2.13) and revenue of $7.77B vs. est. $7.45B as in-line HIV sales and lower OpEx (as well as a one-time $400mn IP asset sale) offset lower Veklury/oncology sales and mgmt raised the lower-end of FY25 revenue and earnings guidance.
• ILMN Q3 EPS was well above expectations ($1.34 vs $1.17 est) and raises FY25 EPS guide to ($4.65-$4.75 vs $4.45-$4.55 previously) on better gross margins 69.2% vs 68.2% estimate and sees core adjusted operating margin 22.8% to 23%, vs. prior 22% to 22.5%.

• EW reported robust Q3 results, posting beats across the board as WW TAVR revenue increased +10.6% y/y, ex-FX to $1,149.9M, and FY2025 TAVR growth guidance increased to +7-8% ex-FX (from +6-7% y/y ex-FX prior). TMTT also performed (+53.2% y/y, ex-FX) driven by strong performance from PASCAL/EVOQUE.
• IRTC Q3 revenue came in at $193M, ahead of consensus $185M as Zio AT accounted for ~14% of total revenue (~$27.0M) and both the core Zio Monitor business and Zio AT showed strong growth; revenue beat translated through to higher operating leverage with adjusted EBITDA coming in well-ahead.
• RMD Q1 results mostly positive given a modest revenue beat and sustained margin inflection; however, revenue was slightly ahead of expectations, as outperformance in Devices was partially offset by Masks & Accessories and SAAS.
• SYK reported Q3 results that beat on the top and bottom lines while mgmt raised guidance for the year for both metrics (despite a higher anticipated tariff impact); the Ortho segment did well (including another record install quarter for Mako)
• In Animal/Pet Services: Stifel upgraded IDXX to Buy expects IDEXX’s CAG Dx recurring revenue growth to accelerate over the next couple of years as price realization steps down modestly; said ELAN was a favorite name although positive revisions are likely needed to drive the stock higher from here; for ZTS, said thinks it’s too early to turn bullish, worried about the optics of a sloppy Q3 and for TRUP, said vet inflation has proven stubborn, and Trupanion needs to show an ability to accelerate gross adds.

• Rare Earth sector: METC shares jumped after the company announced it has signed a research and development agreement with the Department of Energy to "accelerate the discovery, mining processing and creation of rare earths and critical minerals." Ramaco signed an "Umbrella Cooperative Research and Development Agreement" with the Department of Energy’s National Energy Technology Laboratory to move faster on mining and discovery at its Brook Mine in Sheridan, Wyoming.

• In Cable: CHTR shares fell on Q3 miss as EPS $8.34 missed the consensus $9.29 on revs $13.67B, below consensus $13.75B and reported a loss of -109,000 Internet customers in Q3, compared with expected decrease of -82,950, per Visible Alpha; lost -70,000 video customers in Q3 vs decline of -294,000 y/y and said added 493,000 mobile lines, lower than 545,000 adds y/y; CMCSA downgraded to Sector Weight at Keybanc saying while Broadband/Mobile net adds were better than expected, the firm underappreciated the investment needed to achieve the results (Goldman Sachs also downgraded CMCSA for same reasons).
• Online Services: RDDT Q3 revenue was $40M above the high end of guidance as advertising revenue grew 74% Y/Y, while global DAUQ grew 19% Y/Y as Reddit added 5.6M DAUqs Q/Q with U.S. logged-in DAU growing Q/Q; EBITDA totaled $236M (+151% Y/Y) as margins crossed 40% for the first time. GETY shares surge after strikes multi-year image partnership with Perplexity.

• IT Services & Consulting: NET reported Q3 rev growth +31% y/y to $562M vs. est. $545M, re-accelerating its YoY growth rate for the second consecutive quarter; company raised FY25 guidance and provided encouraging commentary on achieving $3B in ARR by 4Q26 on the path to $5B by 4Q28.
• Software names are strong on several reports:
• TEAM reported strong F1Q results, with Cloud accelerating to ~26% y/ y, noted stronger than expected DC-to-Cloud migrations, paid-seat expansion, and cross-sell and raised headline FY26 guidance across the board which reflects benefits from accelerated Cloud migrations.
• TWLO reported very strong Q3 results with organic growth of 13% in the quarter, which led to increasing the FY25 organic growth guide to 11.3-11.5% vs prior guidance of 9-10% as outperformance was based on broad-based strength across customers segments of self-serve and enterprise.
• SPSC shares tumbled on results, downgraded to Neutral at Cantor and tgt to $80 from $135 after reported mixed-to-negative Q3 results with Recurring revenue missing consensus on myriad headwinds; profitability made up some of the shortfall, but ultimately FCF missed as well on weak guidance.

• MPWR reported strong 3Q results and 4Q guidance, which solidly beat expectations as upside was primarily driven by Enterprise Data (+33% q/q, +4% y/y) and Industrials; mgmt indicated 2H strength in ED was driven by the ramp of new customers (TPU) and expects 30-40% growth in 2026.
• NVDA to supply >260k accelerator chips to South Korea’s top firms—including Samsung, Hyundai, and SK—to support national AI infrastructure efforts; partnership strengthens Nvidia’s foothold in a key tech hub as South Korea aims to become the AI capital of the APAC region – Bloomberg. CEO Jensen says he still hopes to sell Blackwell chips to China, despite Trump not bringing up topic with Xi.
• WDC shares jump in HDD sector, tracking gains in rival STX earlier this week, as Q1 revs of $2.8B, ~44% GM, price/EB up 1% Q/Q, ~$600M of FCF, and >$500M of buybacks all beat estimates and guided EPS and revs above views (sees Q2 revs $2.9B, plus or minus $100 mln, above estimates of $2.82B)