Mid-Morning Look

Monday, November 03, 2025

U.S. stocks pushed higher overnight, adding to October gains and boosted by a better session in Europe and broadly higher trading in Asia overnight (Nikkei another record highs after rising 2%), as the path of least resistance remains to the upside given strength in tech and a view of lower interest rates from the Fed. Technology (XLK, XLC) has been the market leader as AI remains a high-profile tailwind for risk sentiment, notable again this morning with several AI data center/power deals announced (see below AMZN, CIFR, IREN, ETN) – seemingly every day showing the demand needs for AI power. Markets still remain in the dark about government economic data as the Federal shutdown rolls into Day 32, though ISM Manufacturing data today showed modest weakness. Still, the lack of data, impact on airlines, the large job cuts recently announced (UPS, AMZN, TGT) are not impacting stock markets yet. Reminder November is historically the month for best S&P 500 returns, looking to add to the current monthly winning streaks for major averages. Coming into November, the S&P is riding a 6-month winning streak (longest streak since August 2021), the Nasdaq composite is up seventh straight months (longest streak since January 2018) and the Dow has risen sixth straight months (longest run since January 2018).  This week also brings another hefty week of earnings, with more than 100 S&P companies reporting after nearly 35% reported last week. Earnings season has thus far been a tailwind for stock markets. Bitcoin prices are lower, gold is higher. This morning, lots of M&A related news in consumer space (KMB/KVUE), gold miners (CDW/NGV) and energy (CIVI/SM). Fed speakers, earnings results and AI dominating the morning so far.

• ISM U.S. manufacturing activity index 48.7 in October below consensus 49.5 and vs 49.1 in September; the prices paid index 58.0 in October down from 61.9 in September; the new orders index 49.4 in October vs 48.9 in September and the employment index 46.0 in October vs 45.3 in September.

• In Insurance: AON was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup to reflect improved risk/reward citing tailwinds from capital markets activity, the potential for data center projects to remain a positive growth driver, and integration and restructuring efforts mostly in the rear-view window. BRO downgraded from Buy to Neutral at Bank America and cut tgt to $97 from $135 noting shares have generally been declining (down 36% from April 3rd to October 31st) against a broadly appreciating S&P500. Bank America also downgraded MMC from Neutral to Underperform (tgt to $181 from $243 based on a lower outlook for organic growth going forward, with near-term headwinds from softening property rates. Additionally, revises down its EPS forecast due to lower growth.
• In Semiconductors: MU, SNDK shares rose early after Samsung delays DDR5 pricing amid price spike per Digitimes Asia overnight. According to a DIGITIMES report, Samsung halted its October pricing announcements for DDR5 memory chips, pushing them to mid-November as spot market prices surged. The delay in contract pricing amid rapidly rising spot prices indicates tightening supply conditions in the memory chip market, a situation that typically boosts revenue and profit margins for storage companies like Micron, SanDisk, Western Digital, and Seagate. NVDA will reportedly collaborate w/ South Korea to deploy over 250k Nivida GPUs in South Korea’s sovereign cloud and AI factories to expand the country’s AI infrastructure, the Economic Times reported. ON reported quarterly results and guidance posting top and bottom-line beats for Q3, while guided Q4 revs and profit at the midpoint of consensus outlooks.

• CIFR +26%; announced an approximately $5.5B, 15-year lease agreement with Amazon Web Services (AMZN), to provide turnkey space and power for AI workloads. Under the terms of this lease agreement, Cipher will deliver 300 MW of capacity in 2026, including both air and liquid cooling to the racks.
• CRBU +19%; shares jumped after saying that its off-the-shelf CAR-T therapy induced complete and durable remissions in patients with advanced B-cell lymphoma. The study results, while preliminary, are comparable to benchmarks set by currently approved, patient-specific CAR-T therapies for lymphoma.
• FRPT +8%; on results; reported Q3 sales $288.8M vs. est. $285.8M; Q3 adj EBITDA $54.6M vs. est. $54.3M; Q3 Net Income $101.7M; revises 2025 net sales growth to ~13% from 13%-16% previously; Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 expected between $190M-$195M.
• IDXX +14%; after results; posted Q3 EPS and revs topped consensus while raised its forecasts adjusted annual profit between $12.81-$13.01 above prior view of $12.40-$12.76.
• IREN +15%; announced it has signed a multi-year GPU cloud services contract with MSFT. Under the agreement, IREN will provide Microsoft with access to NVDA GB300 GPUs over a five-year term, with a total contract value of approximately $9.7B, including a 20% prepayment. IREN has also entered into an agreement with DELL to purchase the GPUs and ancillary equipment for approximately $5.8B.
• KNOP +9%; said it received a buyout offer from Knutsen NYK Offshore Tankers AS for $10 per unit.
• KVUE +15%; after KMB agreed to acquire KVUE in $48.7B deal, creating a $32B global health and wellness leader. KMB says the total anticipated run-rate synergies of $2.1B; expected to be accretive to Kimberly-Clark’s adjusted EPS by year 2. KVUE shareholders to receive $3.50 cash and 0.14625 KMB shares.
• MU +4%; along with gains in SNDK, WDC, STX after Digitimes reported Samsung halted its October pricing announcements for DDR5 memory chips, pushing them to mid-November as spot prices surged. The delay in contract pricing amid rapidly rising spot prices indicates tightening supply conditions in the memory chip market.

• BYND -15%; delayed its Q3 results to November 11^th (vs. 11/4) saying it requires more time to quantify impairment charge related to some of its asset; on Friday announced preliminary quarterly revenue above estimates.
• CHTR -3%; was downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight with $430 PT after results at Keybanc and also downgraded at Bernstein after results as all residential revenue figures missed expectations, as did adj. EBITDA and Broadband/Wireless net adds.
• IMAX -2%; after announces $220M convertible bond offering.
• QURE -60%; after announcing the FDA no longer agrees that data from the Phase I/II studies of AMT-130 in comparison to an external control, as per the prespecified protocols and statistical analysis plans shared with the FDA in advance of the analyses, may be adequate to provide the primary evidence in support of a BLA submission
• RGTI -9%; was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B Riley while raising tgt to $42 from $35 saying they believe delayed U.S. government funding authorizations bring sales risk to Rigetti while after a 190% share rally YTD, the stock is pricing in a significant percentage of long-term commercial success.
• SER -4%; announced that the U.S. FDA has placed a clinical hold on the Company’s Investigational New Drug (IND) application for SER-252, Serina’s lead development program for advanced Parkinson’s disease.