Mid-Morning Look

Thursday, November 06, 2025

U.S. stocks are moving lower to start the day filled with another barrage of corporate earnings (and some big movers), while markets digest the government shutdown in day 37, several Fed speakers expected and awaiting Supreme court decision on President Trump’s tariff powers. There is still no government economic data for investors/the Fed to work with, while yesterday ADP private payroll data showed a slight improvement, though today a different picture as Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. said companies last month announced 153,074 job cuts, nearly triple the number during the same month last year and driven by the technology and warehousing sectors. It’s the most for any October since 2003. Earnings have been very strong for Q3 as out of the 416 S&P 500 companies reported thus far vs 417 LY (fiscal qtr ending Aug-Oct, per Reuters), there has been an 85% beat vs 78% Last year, with the avg beat 21% vs 28% LY, avg miss -14% vs -15% LY and avg yr/yr earnings growth 18% vs 14% LY. With that being said, several stocks are moving notably lower overnight on results and guidance (details below). In central bank news, the Bank of England holds Key interest rate at 4% in a close 5-4 vote. It has been a volatile week as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite on Tuesday suffered their biggest one-day drops in nearly a month, weighed down by a sharp tech decline on valuation concerns. The indexes recovered somewhat on Wednesday, while the tech group extended losses slightly. Market breadth weak again as eight of the eleven S&P sectors are lower (Energy, Utility, Materials rise).

• In Casino & Gaming: ESPN and DKNG announced an agreement naming DraftKings the exclusive official sportsbook and odds provider of ESPN, effective Dec. 1. DraftKings will power sportsbook and fantasy features directly inside the ESPN app. The move comes after earlier; PENN and ESPN mutually agree to early termination of U.S. Online Sports betting agreement in Q4. ESPN will retain vested warrants to purchase 7.9M shares with weighted strike price of $28.95. PENN also reported Q3 results. GDEN to be acquired by Blake Sartini and enter into sale-leaseback transaction with VICI in deal valued at $30.00, 41% premium to closing price on November 5 and VICI will assume up to $426M of debt.
• Nuclear/Power sector: LEU announced that it has entered into an at-the-market equity offering sales agreement, under which Centrus may, from time to time, offer and sell shares of its Class A common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $1B; shares of VST and TLN also reported quarterly results in the nuclear power sector; NRG reports Q3, reaffirms 2025 financial guidance, and initiates 2026 standalone guidance while announcing new $3B share repurchase authorization through 2028.
• In Brokers & Exchanges: SCHW said it would buy FRGE in a transaction valued at about $660M as Forge holders will receive $45 per share in cash (above prior day close) $37.90. https://tinyurl.com/33p5c4vk ; HOOD posted a Q3 EPS/rev beat as Transaction-based revenue more than doubled to $730M, crypto revenue surged 300% y/y, options up 50%, equities up 132%, while raises forecast for 2025 adj operating expenses and stock-based compensation to $2.28B from prior view $2.15B-$2.25B; NDAQ shares slipped early after the European Commission opened an antitrust investigation against stock exchange companies Deutsche Boerse and Nasdaq, suspecting them of breaking EU competition rules.
• Retail earnings plentiful: RL raised its annual revenue forecast after beating quarterly revenue estimates, betting on resilient demand as now sees annual revenue to increase 5% to 7%, compared with prior forecast of a low- to mid-single-digit percentage growth (follows Q3 sales beat $2.01B vs. $1.89B est.); TPR shares fall despite reporting sales and earnings growth that exceeded expectations, and raised annual guidance, as some pointed to its Kate Spade brand, which continued to post sales declines. PTON is recalling about 833,000 Peloton Original Series Bike+ Model PL02, as the bike’s seat post assembly can break during use, posing fall and injury hazards to the user. UA Q3 results beat, guidance light.

• BHF +25%; shares jumped after Aquarian Capital agreed to acquire Brighthouse Financial in a deal valued at $4.1B, with BHF shareholders to receive $70 per share.
• COHR +12%; the latest to report better results (LITE yesterday) after posted upside results including record sales, guided up for the December quarter while Datacenter sales, which were at record levels, are expected to grow 10% in F2Q26.
• DDOG +21%; as Q3 EPS and revs topped consensus and guided Q4 profit and revenue above estimates with revs $912M-$916M vs. est. $887.25M and EPS $0.54-$0.56 per share, vs estimates of $0.47.
• DKNG +4%; as ESPN and DKNG announced an agreement naming DraftKings the exclusive official sportsbook and odds provider of ESPN, effective Dec. 1.
• FRGE +66%; after SCHW said it would buy FRGE in a transaction valued at about $660M as Forge holders will receive $45 per share in cash (above prior day close) $37.90. https://tinyurl.com/33p5c4vk
• GDEN +40%; to be acquired by Blake Sartini and enter into sale-leaseback transaction with VICI in deal valued at $30.00, 41% premium to closing price on November 5 and VICI will assume up to $426M of debt.
• HL +25%; shares of the gold/silver miner rally behind quarterly results/production.
• LZ +21%; shares rose, upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform at William Blair after saying LegalZoom reported an impressive beat-and-raise, with organic revenue growth accelerating for the Second straight quarter.
• MRVL +5%; after Bloomberg reported SoftBank Group Corp. explored a potential takeover of US chipmaker Marvell Technology Inc. earlier this year, people familiar with the matter said, in what would have been the semiconductor industry’s largest-ever deal. https://tinyurl.com/2d99erst
• STGW +36%; shares rose after an announced partnership with PLTR centered around an Ai-driven Platform for marketers that will bring the full power of data and Ai together to increase marketing ROI.

• CELH -23%; shares fall despite top and bottom line Q3 beat as warned they expect inventory movements to impact future results.
• DASH -16%; Q3 results came in better than expected across most every metric (Orders, AOV, GOV, and EBITDA) given continued MAU growth and Frequency gains but sees Q4 adj EBITDA $710-810Mm vs est $802.68Mm.
• DUOL 24%; shares tumble after a weak Q4 bookings forecast as the company provided issuance of below-Street guidance on both Bookings and EBITDA, with the company citing a near-term desire to focus more on user growth than on monetization.
• ELF -26%; reported weaker than expected Q2 results as adjusted EBITDA of $66.2M was ahead of a $60.0M Street figure, but sales of $343.9M fell well short of consensus expectations of $365.8M and guided FY25 sales of $1.55B-$1.57B, well below a Street figure of $1.65B
• HUBS -13%; delivered another solid quarter, with CC revenue growth of 18% and EBIT margin of 20%, but shares fell as Q4 outlook and exit growth rate left Investors questioning the potential path and timeline for a return to 20% constant currency growth.
• KMX -12%; after terminated its chief executive Bill Nash, the company said in a regulatory filing who had served as CEO of CarMax since 2016, and issued prelim Q3 results as sees EPS $0.18-$0.36 below the $0.69 estimate and forecasts comparable store used unit sales to fall 8% to 12%