Daily Commentary: November 07, 2025

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More Downside Likely

Posted by Pete Stolcers on November 07
www.oneoption.com

The selling pressure since the high last week has been steady and today we will test the 50-day MA.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – Since the high from last week the market has been in a steady drift lower. Great earnings and a Fed rate cut excited buyers and now some of the air is being let out of the balloon. The breakout at SPY $674 has failed and this morning we are below AVWAPQ. The 50-day MA is in range and we are likely to test it today.

The drop on Tuesday was normal and what bulls wanted to see was a nice bounce on Wednesday. That started to unfold and the market rallied into the gap from Tuesday. It looked like buyers are still interested until the last hour of trading. That’s when most of the gains vaporized. Late day selling is never a good sign and that spilled over to yesterday.

Overseas markets were down and the market will open lower this morning.

The government shutdown is impacting economic growth. Speaker Mike Johnson said he is less optimistic today than he was yesterday. That is not a good sign. I’ve heard that Republicans do have an answer to the filibuster, but they are too lazy to execute the strategy. This is NOT the nuclear option. All Republicans need to be in session and they need to “put the question” and have Democrats speak. This is how the filibuster was designed to work and the party in control wears out the other party. Everyone would have to stay there until they can’t speak and it’s over. Put your Depends on and let’s open the government!

The job survey from Challenger yesterday paints a bleak picture and without any other employment data, it is making investors nervous.

I have not been adding to positions. I don’t have many on. Most are doing well. I have bullish put spreads on MSFT and LMT. Both have breached support. I have been shorting the stocks intraday and I have mitigated any losses. I have also shorted /ES futures. I also reeled in a naked put for APLD for a tiny loss yesterday. I have not lost focus of the long side, I am just waiting for signs of support. Based on what I’ve seen, we will probe deeper.

Support is at the 50-day MA and resistance is the low from Thursday.

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