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Open the Government!
www.oneoption.com
These shutdowns frustrate everyone and they are why we have very little faith in politicians.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – Republicans appear to have enough votes to pass the continuing resolution (CR) by a vote of 60-40. First it will go to the House. They have been able to pass the vote a couple of times each week. This should not take long and then it will go back to the Senate. From what I’ve heard the Republicans need to rehire any government workers who were laid off during the shutdown with backpay. That seems like a pretty low hurdle. They also need to confirm that health insurance negotiations will proceed quickly and Republicans have already said as much publicly.
The shutdown is going to reduce GDP for the quarter by 1.5%. The bigger issue is that we don’t even know where we stand currently because we don’t have jobs data.
China has lifted rare earth restrictions on gallium, germanium and three other elements for a year. This is a big deal and a major step towards improving trade relations with the US.
From a technical perspective, we tested the 50-day MA last Friday and we flew off of it. That is bullish and we have year end seasonal strength. The news that the shutdown could be ending is fueling the move higher this morning. It is hard to jump right back in and to chase this rally, but I did encourage you to take longs last Friday and to hold them over the weekend. An alternative to diving in is to sell OTM naked puts on strong stocks that did not flinch during last week’s market drop.
I would like to buy a dip this morning for day trades, but we might not get one. Any pullback will be brief and shallow.
I am not gangbuster bullish where I would want to dive in full force. This is a tiny pullback in a tired market. Year end seasonal strength will fuel a slow choppy move higher. The most consistent price action might take place the next few days as we crawl out of this hole. After that, we will resume the light volume float higher with tiny intraday ranges. Make sure you have some swing trades on. The end of November and into December will be tough for day trading.
Support is at AVWAPQ and resistance is at SPY $679 (H- trendline).
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