Closing Recap

Monday, November 10, 2025

Wall Street rallied on Monday led by a more than 2.25% jump for the Nasdaq after sliding last week over -3%, amid a rebound in AI plays and semis, as well as strength in the heavily weight Mag 7 stocks, with big gains in TSLA, NVDA, GOOGL, META, AMZN and MSFT.  NYSE breadth was strong with around 2:1 advancers leading decliners, while the defensive sectors such as consumer staples/REITs lagged, while all others outperformed. News on Sunday night that U.S. Senators advanced a House-passed bill that will be amended to fund the government until January 30 and include a package of three full-year appropriations bills got futures higher overnight. Now markets await 7-week long delayed economic data shortly to see where the economy stands. Fed Governor Stephen Miran called for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 50 bps in December (has done so been being added to Fed in recent months), though estimates remain for a 25bps cut. A few key AI related earnings results are coming tonight/tomorrow with CRWV and NBIS before NVDA results next week. Overall, risk sentiment remained resilient throughout the trading session as the overhang of positive impact from weekend steps towards ending the US government shutdown has provided continued support. Gold prices soared; Bitcoin prices rebounded along with oil prices and the QQQ posted its 10^th consecutive positive Monday! In fact, the Nasdaq Comp rose over +2.25%, nearly 1,000 points off its Friday low 22,563.42.

Government shutdown: After 41 days, the Senate finally cleared the hurdle to reopen the government with a 60–40 vote. Eight Democrats crossed over to join Republicans that include Catherine Cortez Masto, Dick Durbin, John Fetterman, Maggie Hassan, Tim Kaine, Angus King, Jacky Rosen, and Jeanne Shaheen. The vote didn’t solve the big fiscal debates that caused the shutdown in the first place, but it did what markets and workers needed most, it stopped the bleeding. The deal funds the government through January 30, 2026, while giving full year funding to key agencies like the FDA and USDA and guaranteeing back pay for furloughed federal employees. House Speaker Mike Johnson called lawmakers back to Washington after the Senate passed the bill and said the House will vote within 36 hours and praised bipartisan support, calling the deal “the beginning of the end.”

When will the economic data flow? Once the government officially reopens, federal agencies will rush to release six weeks of delayed reports. The September jobs report, originally due Oct.3, should come out within days, offering a key look at the late-summer labor market. Other data will take longer. The Labor Department is weeks behind on October employment and inflation figures, with analysts expecting payrolls data at least two weeks after reopening. Surveys like unemployment and consumer prices may face further delays, possibly leaving the Fed without fresh inflation data ahead of its Dec. 10 meeting.

AI/Tech remains the target of famed “Big Short” investor Michael Burry saying on “X today, @michaeljburry “Understating depreciation by extending useful life of assets artificially boosts earnings -one of the more common frauds of the modern era. Massively ramping capex through purchase of Nvidia chips/servers on a 2-3 yr product cycle should not result in the extension of useful lives of compute equipment. Yet this is exactly what all the hyperscalers have done. By my estimates they will understate depreciation by $176 billion 2026-2028. By 2028, ORCL will overstate earnings 26.9%, META by 20.8%, etc. But it gets worse. More detail coming November 25th. Stay tuned.” Recall burry revealed over a week ago he had taken short positions on NVDA and PLTR.

Stats of note, “@RyanDetrick noted “Thanks to the big reversal on Friday, the incredible streak of closes within 3% of an all-time high continues. Now up over five months.” Also given today’s strength in tech, the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) posted its 10^th straight positive Monday! @charliebilello noted, “12.4% of credit card balances in the US are now 90+ days delinquent, the highest since 2011.”

• Precious metal prices soared on Monday as December gold rose $112.20 or 2.72% to settle at $4,122.00 an ounce while silver prices rose 4.5% to $50.46 per ounce, reaching its highest since October 21. Markets are awaiting key economic data is the government is set to reopen. Markets now see a 64% chance of a rate cut in December, with odds climbing to about 77% by January, according to FedWatch tool.
• Treasury yields were little changed on the day with the 10-year at 4.11%, having backed off overnight highs around 4.14%. A strong three-year auction of $58 billion in three-year notes failed to move markets. The Treasury sale of $58 billion 3 Year Notes was strong. The yield at 3.579% is more than a full basis point lower than the market.

• In Lodging & Leisure: FUN was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley and lower tgt to $20 from $30 saying they have concerns about the company’s EBITDA recovering off the 2025 lows in 2026 due to cyclical and secular factors. SOND shares fell after MAR said its licensing agreement with Lodging rentals company Sonder has been terminated due to a default from Sonder.
• In Autos: Reuters reported France’s Renault has ended a project with Valeo to develop a new rare-earth-free Electric vehicle Motor and is looking instead for a cheaper Chinese supplier, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. Automakers, including Renault, GM and BMW and suppliers such as ZF, BWA and Valeo have been developing EV Motors which do not require rare earths. EVGO reported revenue for the third quarter that slightly beat the average analyst estimate. For TSLA, Emmanuel Lamacchia, the program manager for Tesla’s Model Y, announced that he is leaving the automaker. News followed report that Siddhant Awasthi, head of the Cybertruck program, announced his departure from the company.

• In Solar: RUN was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Guggenheim with $27 tgt after Q3 results last Thursday that underscore how effectively the company is managing its business in a profoundly challenged industry. ARRY was upgraded from Neutral to Buy at Seaport Global saying their thesis that the U.S. power Supercycle’s priorities—keeping up with load growth and staying neck-and-neck with China in the Ai race—would become the dominant theme for utility-scale Solar is proving out.

• In Credit Cards: Visa (V) and MA announced a revised settlement with merchants who accused the card networks of charging too much to accept their credit cards, after a judge rejected an earlier $30 billion accord as inadequate. The accord, which requires court approval, calls for Visa and Mastercard to lower swipe fees, which are now typically 2% to 2.5%, by 0.1 percentage points for five years.
• In Lending: LC was upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Citizens with $23 PT saying they are a buyer following the Investor Day on November 5, citing more clarity around material growth drivers, stable credit performance, favorable funding channels, and stickier deposits.

• COGT shares jumped after saying its experimental combo drug, Bezuclastinib, significantly delayed disease progression in patients with an advanced form of stomach cancer in a late-stage study in combo with PFE’s Sutent. Patients on the combination lived for a median of 16.5 months without their cancer worsening, compared to 9.2 months for those on Sutent alone
• GLTO shares jumped as announces acquisition of Damora Therapeutics as phase 1 proof-of-concept data for dmr-001 anticipated in 2027 and combined company expected to have financial runway into 2029.
• IONS presented positive full data from the Ph3 CORE (n=617) and CORE2 (n=446) studies of Tryngolza in severe hypertriglyceridemia (sHTG) at the American Heart Association (AHA) meeting, also published in NEJM, with more detail on the triglycerides (TG) and acute pancreatitis (AP) reductions.
• LLY shares rose over 4%, hitting all-time highs around $982.
• MGTX enters into strategic collaboration with LLY to develop and commercialize genetic medicines in ophthalmology; under the terms of the agreement, MeiraGTx will receive an upfront payment of $75M and will be eligible to receive over $400M in total milestone payments.
• MNKD shares fell after saying its MNKD-101 drug, a nebulized version expected to treat non-tuberculous mycobacterial lung disease, shows no signs of treatment success in initial 46 patients.
• MTSR shares fell after NVO announced it would not increase its latest offer for the obesity drugmaker; as a result, Metsera will be acquired by PFE for $65.60/shr in cash and a $20.65/shr CVR.
• NTLA presented positive clinical data from a pooled analysis of all patients who received a 50 milligram (mg) dose of lonvo-z in the company’s ongoing Phase 1/2 clinical trial in patients with hereditary angioedema (HAE).
• VIR announces phase 2 data showing tobevibart and Elebsiran combination achieves 66% undetectable HDV RNA at week 48 with favorable safety.

• In Medical Devices: GH said it has expanded its "Guardant Reveal blood test" so doctors can track how well treatments are working in patients with advanced solid tumors, without needing a tissue sample

• In the Industrial sector: Industrial and aerospace equipment maker PH is in talks to buy Filtration Group from Madison Industries in a deal valued at about $9 billion, including debt, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter.
• In Aerospace & Defense: RDW entered equity Distribution agreement, may offer and sell shares of common stock of up to $250M; KKR struck a deal to sell aerospace and defense hardware maker Novaria Group to industrials-focused private equity firm Arcline Investment Management for $2.2 billion
• In Metals & Mining: a strong day for precious metals and both gold and silver miners following the jump in prices; Barrick (B) boosted its quarterly dividend and expanded a share buyback program after gold’s record-breaking rally. Industrial metals saw weakness early.
• In Rare Earth sector: China suspends 2024 bans on gallium/germanium/antimony/superhard materials exports to US until Nov 2026. China halts special port fees for US vessels and removes sanctions on US-linked Hanwha Ocean units for one year. China exempts Nexperia civilian chips from export controls; urges Dutch gov’t to fix “wrongful” restrictions. In research, MP was upgraded to Buy from Hold and raise PT to $71 from $68 at Deutsche Bank saying MP now represents a buying opportunity for Investors wanting to have exposure to the thematic of Critical Minerals and Rare Earth on the medium to long-term.
• In Forestry, Paper & Packaging: Barclays downgraded Mondi (MONDY) to Underweight with a 760p PT as thinks consensus expectations are too optimistic given challenging macro conditions, and sees risk to the dividend, and about 15% of Mondi’s EBITDA is exposed to uncoated fine paper, a secularly declining volume business. Firm remains OW on SW noting shares are down about 35% YTD versus the SPX Index, which is up 15%, making it one of the worst-performing stocks in their paper and packaging coverage. PCH was downgraded to Sector Perform at RBC Capital saying the pending merger will dilute the positives from PotlatchDeltic’s exposure to U.S. lumber production.

• In Software: MNDY shares fell after guiding Q4 sales $328.0M–$330.0M below consensus $333.681M despite Q3 EPS and revs topping Wall Street consensus estimates. DV was upgraded to Buy at Bank America saying DV AH below private market value, likely to extend lead in media quality measurement as only public player, Q3: inline w/guide, although usually see seq. growth in 2H; shares of Enterprise artificial intelligence software provider AI is exploring a potential sale, among other options, after founder Thomas Siebel recently stepped down as CEO over health concerns, Reuters reported this afternoon.
• In Hardware: AAPL will not release the next version of the iPhone Air in the fall of 2026 as previously planned, amid weak sales, the Information reported on Monday, citing sources familiar with the matter.
• Internet Security: Deutsche Bank said results from channel partner survey suggest a mixed quarter for the off-cycle Cyber companies within their coverage. The firm said new business in the quarter appears to be steady across most of the vendors in DBAB’s survey, with RBRK standing out as the clear outperformer and PANW also showing Healthy signs. Conversely, the firm surfaced challenges for OKTA, though pair this with muted investor expectations for the company.
• In Semiconductors: a nice 3% rebound after the SOX index dropped over -5% last week as valuation concerns led to profit taking. NVDA CEO Jensen Huang on Saturday said the semiconductor giant is experiencing "very strong demand" for its state-of-the-art Blackwell chips, as its appetite for wafers from TSM grows. In AI space