Mid-Morning Look

Friday, November 14, 2025

U.S. stocks are adding to weekly losses and on track for its second straight weekly decline (despite November being historically the best returns for the S&P 500) as weakness in technology, communications, crypto give way to a rotation in healthcare, energy and materials this week (which have lower weightings in major averages). It will be interesting heading into Monday where the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is riding a 10-week streak of higher Monday’s. Stocks were pressured early this morning as Big Tech shares weighed on the broader market. Note both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffered their worst single-day loss in more than a month Thursday. Note both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are currently at/just below their respective 50-dma support levels. In macro news, the US said it will slash its tariffs on goods from Switzerland to 15% from 39% under a new framework trade agreement.

After months of dovish Fed commentary, the “hawks” have been out lately with Fed’s Schmidt saying this morning inflation is too hot, policy is where it should be (note Schmid was one of two dissenters on the Fed’s October decision to lower the policy rate by 25bps). The comments follow hawkish rate comments by Kashkari yesterday as well. The turn in Fed commentary, coupled with lack of economic data due to the government shutdown lasting 43 days, has pressured markets amid lowered expectations of a rate cut in December.

Gold prices tumbling, down more than -3.5% this morning to $4,050 (off highs $4,215) but paring losses as prices declined as expectations of a rate cut in December by the Fed lessen amid economic data uncertainty. Oil prices climbed more than 1% on Friday, boosted by supply fears after the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk halted oil exports following a Ukrainian drone attack that hit an oil depot in the major Russian energy hub. Bitcoin hit over 6-month lows below $96,000, in bear market territory falling more than 20% from its all-time highs of $126,198 on October 6^th (prices are trying to bounce as moves back above $96K).

• In Metals & Mining: shares of precious metal gold/silver miner stocks CDE, AG, PAAS, FSM, HL, NEM tumbled following the sharp pullback in gold (-3% this morning) and silver prices as Wall Street expectations of a rate cut in December by the Fed lessen amid economic data uncertainty. In Steel sector, NUE was upgraded to Overweight at Wells Fargo (tgt to $2167 from $147) citing higher 2026 U.S. steel price forecasts, boosting 2026 EBITDA by 12% to $5.1B and upgraded CLF upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight after estimates rise to reflect newly increased sheet steel forecasts for 2026. FCX, SCCO fall in copper space after weak economic data from top consumer China fanned concerns over demand.
• Semiconductors: AMAT reported modestly better for Q4 with QQ strength in DRAM offsetting QQ declines in China, Foundry-Logic while guidance for Q1 was also slightly ahead of estimates. AMAT said anticipates shipments/revenue accelerating by calendar 2H26 but expects more modest upward revenue trajectory. Memory stocks (MU, WDC, SNDK) rebounded after tumbling Thursday after report that Samsung hikes DDR5 chip prices. Group mixed early.
• Home Improvement Retail: HD was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel in earnings preview for sector they outline a cautious bias to HDFQ325 earnings. Stifel believes the home improvement category is at best stagnant and potentially deteriorating ahead of difficult November/December comparisons. Stifel also said believes the near-term setup is too challenging to maintain its positive approach.

• CDTX +104%; shares jumped after MRK said it will acquire the maker of an experimental flu therapy, for $9.2B, as they widen their pipeline to counter the impending revenue hit as its mega-blockbuster Keytruda loses patent protection. The transaction values Cidara at $221 per share.
• ONDS +15%; adds to prior day gains post earnings; was upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer with a $12tgt citing the earnings results.
• SRRK +27%; after saying it had an in-person Type A meeting with the U.S. FDA, describing it as “constructive,” a key step toward resubmitting its application for muscle weakness drug, apitegromab.
• WBD +2%; shares advanced after the WSJ reported late yesterday that PSKY, CMCSA, and NFLX are all preparing bids for the entertainment company ahead of next week’s deadline.

• BMY -3%; after discontinuing the Librexia ACS Phase 3 trial of milvexian after an independent interim review found it unlikely to meet its primary efficacy endpoint in acute coronary syndrome.
• MSTR -3%; along with sharp declines in Bitcoin miners as Bitcoin prices fell below $95,000 as investors pull funds from token-linked ETFs as sentiment shifts to risk-off; now down 24% from all-time highs.
• RCAT -4%; reported better Q3 results, but due to the government shutdown and a new product delay, lowered 2025 revenue guidance 44% below Street expectations (sees FY sales $34.5-37.5M vs est $70.12M), sending shares lower.
• STUB -28%; shares fell after better Q3 results with Q3 revenue and adj. EBITDA of $468m (vs. est. $452m) and $68m (vs. est. $58m) with the out-performance largely due to the timing of the on-sale calendar with more events pulled into September.
• TSLA -3%; first time below $400 since mid-September
• VSTM -7%; as 8.544M share Spot Secondary priced at $7.25.
• WMT -2%; after announcing that its CEO Doug McMillon will retire next year and will be replaced by insider John Furner as the new top boss.