Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, November 19, 2025

U.S. stocks off to a solid start on Wednesday, recovering much of Tuesday’s losses as investors await key earnings from semiconductor and AI giant Nvidia (NVDA) tonight and await tomorrow’s nonfarm payroll data that was delayed due to the government shutdown.  Note CBOE Volatility index (VIX) expiration was at the open today, along with some possible covering into NVDA tonight for early market bounce (in addition to stock markets down 4 straight days coming into Wednesday – first time since August down 4-straight).  We had retail earnings out today as LOW results were better than HD the day prior, and TGT was out with mixed results (WMT tomorrow), along with WSM, LZB, TJX earnings as well (see more below). Oil prices and energy stocks slip following an Axios report of a U.S. proposal to end the Russian war in Ukraine, as oversupply concerns continued to weigh on oil prices. After rallying off 7-month lows Tuesday above $93,000, Bitcoin -0.7% at $91,750 early and weighing on some crypto names like MSTR which trades back under $200. We had two Fed speakers today with Miran and Barkin making comments ahead of the FOMC minutes. Fed Funds Futures are holding in with about a 45% chance of a December cut. Early leaders Technology, Materials and Financials while Energy and Consumer Staples slip. Gold prices rise +1.4% to $4,125 an ounce

• US mortgage market index -5.2% to 316.9 in week ended Nov 14 according to the Mortgage bankers Assoc (MBA) as the purchase index falls 2.3%, refinance index falls -7.3% as the average 30-year mortgage rate climbs 3 bps to 6.37% in Nov 14 week.

• In Utilities/Nuclear: CEG shares rallied after reports the Trump Administration will give the company a $1B federal loan to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania that suffered a partial core meltdown in 1979. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said that restarting the plant will help bring down electricity prices. PPL announces proposed private placement of $1B of exchangeable Senior notes. OKLO announced that it has signed a binding contract with Siemens Energy for the Design and delivery of the power conversion system for Oklo’s Aurora powerhouse.
• In Investments: BAM is launching a strategy aimed at investing in infrastructure for AI, with NVDA and Kuwait Investment planning to invest in the inaugural fund as founding partners. Brookfield is targeting $10B in equity for its new fund and has already raised $5B of that from investors – WSJ. OWL shares rose after CNBC reported Blue Owl calls off merger of its two private-credit funds after announcement rattles stock, sources say. The firm had planned to merge its smaller, non-traded Blue Owl Capital Corporation II (OBDC II), into the larger, publicly traded fund Blue Owl Capital Corporation (OBDC).
• In Lithium sector: SQM reported Q3 adj Ebitda $404.1M vs. est. $402.3M and revs rose 8.9% to $1.17B, from $1.08B y/y; Q3 net income was $178.4M, helped by an improved pricing environment that lifted average lithium prices for the first time in two years vs. $131.4M y/y. LAC was upgraded to Hold from Sell at Canaccord saying they believe the improving outlook for the lithium sector will continue to support equities and suggest investors continue to reassess sector exposure; SGML shares jumped as well.

• CEG +5%; after reports the Trump Administration will give the company a $1 billion federal loan to restart the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in Pennsylvania that suffered a partial core meltdown in 1979.
• DY +13%; signed a definitive agreement to acquire Power Solutions for a total consideration which values Power Solutions at $1.95B and reported a top and bottom line beat for Q3 results while narrows FY26 revenue view to $5.35B-$5.425B from $5.29B-$5.425B (est. $5.34B).
• GOOGL +6%; making new highs and helping boost tech space, hitting $300 per share for the first time in history after announcing Gemini 3 yesterday.
• LOW +4%; posts slightly better Q3 results (EPS $3.06 vs. est. $2.95 and revs $20.81B vs. est. $20.84B; Q3 comp sales for the quarter increased 0.4% vs. est. +0.1%), trimmed its annual adjusted EPS forecast and raises FY25 revenue view to $86B from $84.5B-$85.5B.
• LZB +19%; reported better Q2 results (EPS $0.71/$522.4M vs. est. $0.54/$517.6M, guides Q3 revs in range $525M-$545M vs. est. $534M; sees Q3 adj operating margin to be in 5%-6.5% range; raises quarterly dividend to $0.24.2 from $0.22.
• MP +12%; after saying it will form a rare earth refining joint venture in Saudi Arabia with the U.S. Department of War and the state-owned Saudi Arabian Mining Company; facility will be designed to process rare earth feedstock sourced from Saudi Arabia and other regions.
• OKLO +9%; after it signed a contract with Siemens Energy for the design and delivery of the power conversion system for its Aurora powerhouse at Idaho National Laboratory.
• RDW +6%; after the space infrastructure company secured a $44 million phase 2 Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) contract.
• SEMR +74%; as ADBE agreed to acquire the software platform company that helps businesses run better search-engine optimization as reliance on artificial intelligence increases in a $1.9B deal were Semrush holders will receive $12 per share, a 77% premium to prior day.
• U +6%; shares rallied after announcing it is working with Epic Games to bring Unity games into Fortnite, creating more opportunity and value for players and developers. Developers will have the ability to publish Unity games into Fortnite, which has more than 500 million registered accounts (weighs on RBLX shares).

• CSIQ -2%; shares fell after Mizuho double downgraded to Underperform from Outperform, though raised tgt to $21 from $15, saying the stock’s recent rally reflects a higher growth multiple for its battery storage business and solar multiple expansion, and is overdone.
• NOK -8%; shares fell after now targets to grow their annual comparable operating profit to a range of 2.7 billion euros and 3.2 billion euros ($3.1 billion and $3.7 billion) by 2028, up as much as 60% from 2 billion euros in the last year; announces new strategy will focus on five strategic priorities.
• PLUG -16%; announces private offering of $375 mln convertible bonds (CBs) due 2033 saying they plan to use $243M of net proceeds to fully repay outstanding principal amount of its 15% secured debentures.
• WIX -12%; delivered beat across top and bottom lines in Q3, driven by core platform strength and the rapid acceleration of its AI “vibe coding” tool, Base44; but while full-year growth guidance was raised, margin expectations came down slightly due to increased AI costs and marketing spend.