Closing Recap

Friday, November 21, 2025

Stock markets finish higher after another roller coaster ride this morning but still closed finished the week in negative territory as concerns about interest rate cuts, AI/tech valuations, corporate bond markets, crypto declines have all weighed on sentiment. Today, stocks got a bounce as New York Fed President John Williams, a voting member of the FOMC said the central bank can still cut interest rates “in the near term” without putting its inflation goal at risk. Those comments helped anchor the markets early today and stop the temporary bleeding. Stocks got an additional boost late afternoon, especially chip stocks after Bloomberg reported the White House is internally floats selling Nvidia h200 chips to China. NYSE breadth was firmly positive with large cap tech/AI/semis the lone weak spot this morning before those sectors bounced midday. Interest rate sensitive stocks/sector such as homebuilders (DHI, PHM, LEN) and small caps stocks (IWM) advanced following Williams comments along with lending, and dividend paying sectors.

Bitcoin prices hit their lowest levels since April and are now down over -12% this year and more than a 30% drawdown from October all-time highs above $126K, but even that sector saw some midday buying. The Philadelphia Semi Index (SOX) fell nearly -3% this morning, breaking below its 100dma support of 6,206 this morning and joining the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and Russell 200 below their respective 50 and 100day moving average supports all broken this week – but after the Nvidia chip news this afternoon and overall market rally, ended much higher on the day around 6,500. All eleven S&P sectors closed higher, but more than 2% gains for Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare and Materials. For the week, the S&P 500 fell 1.95%, the Nasdaq declined 2.74%, and the Dow fell 1.91%. For the week, small caps Russell 2000 index declines -0.78%; Russell 2000 index falls for fourth straight week, longest run of weekly declines since March and the Nasdaq falls for third straight week, longest run of weekly losses since March.

Outside of Fed’s Williams, there were plenty other Fed heads that weighed in today: Fed’s Miran stuck to his dovish guns, saying the Fed should be forecast-dependent, not data-dependent. He said the labor market is not as strong as the Fed would like. He would vote for a 25 bps cut if his vote were the marginal vote. He does not expect the November CPI data to be released on schedule, and it could come after the policy meeting. Fed Collins later noted that recent data had not shifted her view and that there was uncertainty with limited data. She concluded that mildly restrictive policy is very appropriate right now and she is hesitant to move policy. The Fed’s Logan cautioned that data centers will keep boosting electricity prices. She would find it difficult to cut again in December. She believes holding rates would allow the Fed to assess restriction. The Fed’s Jefferson said that there were key differences between the dot-com era and AI today. He said the financial system remains sound in comments stability.

In Asia overnight, the Nikkei Index declined -1,198 points to 48,625, the Shanghai Index fell -96 points to 3,834, and the Hang Seng Index dropped -615 points to 25,220. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said he wanted “just a bit more data” on next year’s wage-growth direction and warned of the boost a weak yen could have on underlying inflation, issuing the strongest signal yet on the chance of a December rate hike. Japan’s new prime minister and her cabinet on Friday announced a 21.3 trillion yen ($135B) stimulus package to provide relief to households squeezed by higher costs. The US dollar weakened vs. the Japanese Yen after surging this week.

• University of Michigan surveys of consumers sentiment final Nov 51.0 vs. consensus 50.5 and compared to preliminary Nov 50.3 and final Oct 53.6; current conditions index final Nov 51.1 vs prelim Nov 52.3 and final Oct 58.6; expectations index final Nov 51.0 vs prelim Nov 49.0 and final Oct 50.3.
• University of Michigan surveys of consumers 1-year inflation outlook final Nov 4.5% vs prelim 4.7% and final Oct 4.6% and University of Michigan surveys of consumers 5-year inflation outlook final Nov 3.4% vs prelim 3.6% and final Oct 3.9%.
• Aug wholesale inventories revised to unchanged (consensus -0.2%) from -0.2%, U.S. Aug wholesale sales +0.1% (consensus +0.4%), U.S. Aug wholesale sales +0.1% (consensus +0.4%) vs July +1.3% (prev +1.4%) and Aug stock/sales ratio 1.28 months’ worth vs July 1.28 months.

• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $58.06/bbl, down -$0.94, or 1.59% and Brent Crude futures settle at $62.56/bbl, down -$0.82, or 1.29%.
• U.S. Treasury yields fell to a three-week low on Friday as investors raised bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month due to a weakening labor market. The 2-yr yield was last down 3.8 basis points at 3.52% and the benchmark U.S. 10-year note yield fell 3.7 basis points to 4.067%.
• The dollar weakened against the yen on Friday, after Japanese officials stepped up verbal intervention to stem the currency’s decline, but the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of other major currencies, flirted with a 5-1/2-month peak and last stood at 100.19.

• Off price Retail: ROST reported a strong 3Q beat last night driven by broad-based gains across income cohorts, improving execution, compelling assortment, and refreshed marketing campaigns; posted +7% same-store sales growth and impressive flow-through lead to an EPS beat.
• Specialty retail: LULU announced that Celeste Burgoyne, President of the Americas and Global Guest Innovation, will leave the company after nearly 20 years to join MTN and appointed Andre Maestrini as President and Chief Commercial Officer. BBWI was downgraded to Equal Weight, $18 PT (from $43) at Morga Stanley saying its Q3 print/guidance & new strategic plan confirms YTD concerns that its path to consistent >LSD % growth & margin expansion is not only elongated, but likely out of reach.
• Housing and Home Improvement names saw strength given the Fed Williams comments about rate cuts, lifting home builders DHI, BZH, KNH, LEN, TOL and improvement names RH, etc. Consumer space in general from discretionary and staples all participated in this afternoons rally.
• In Food: The WSJ reported late day TSN is planning to close one of its largest beef processing plants in Nebraska at a time when a cattle shortage in the U.S. squeezes meatpacking companies. The Lexington, Neb., plant employs roughly 3,000 people and can slaughter almost 5,000 cattle a day, according to industry estimates.

• In Aerospace & Defense: ASTS shares rose early after saying Bluebird 6 launch scheduled for December 15^th, accelerating production with 40 satellites by 2026 and plans five orbital launches by Q1 2026. GE said it is prepared to support the investigation into what caused a crash of an Indian home-produced Tejas fighter jet at the Dubai Airshow.
• Lithium miners ALB, LAC, SGML, SQM shares fell after China moves to curb speculative trading, with. Reuters noted GFEX said it would increase transaction fees for some futures contracts of lithium carbonate from November 24, and it also planned to limit the daily open position for non-futures company members.
• In Forest & Paper sector: In the European Forestry, Paper & Packaging sector, Barclays upgraded Svenska Cellulosa (SVCBF) to Equal Weight from Underweight and downgraded UPM-Kymmene (UPMMY) to Equal Weight from Overweight saying in the absence of a sustained pulp price rally, thinks UPM lacks a catalyst and moves to the sidelines, and thinks SCA is now fairly valued and upgrade to EW.
• Chemicals: Fertilizer stocks (CF, MOS, NTR) shares were active after Reuters reported Ukraine is facing greater pressure to agree to U.S. peace framework than previously. The U.S. has threatened to cut Intelligence sharing, weapons supplies, and wants Ukraine to sign framework by next Thursday, sources note. In other chemicals, shares of CE, DOW, DD, EMN, FMC, LYB, OLN all outperformed.

• Crypto sector: a bloodbath for Bitcoin, Ethereum and other coins with Bitcoin prices now down $44k in 46 days after hitting highs above $126,000 last month in a broad liquidation. Coinglass reports $1.9B in crypto liquidations in 24 hours, hitting 403,000 traders. Analysts cite renewed risk-off sentiment and tech-stock selling as drivers. The crypto market has fallen into extreme fear, reflecting a sharp drop in risk appetite. Shares of MSTR, COIN, HOOD among decliners as well as Bitcoin miners and now data center plays CLSK, CIFR, MARA, RIOT, IREN, WULF, ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF BITO and iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF IBITBitcoin prices hit lowest levels since April this morning at $80,553 before paring losses.
• In Financial Services: INTU started FY26 with good results, as Q1 EPS/revs both topped consensus, which were a bit better than expected in Credit Karma and in the QBO ecosystem; Q1 adj EPS $3.34 vs est $3.09 on revs $3.9B vs est $3.76B and better guide.

• CTNM shares fell after disclosed that the ph2 VISTA trial of PIPE-307 (M1R antagonist) in RRMS did not meet either its prespecified primary or secondary endpoints, and no significant change was observed in binocular 2.5% low-contrast letter acuity across treatment arms.
• GEHC announced that it has entered into an agreement to acquire Intelerad, a medical imaging software provider for the healthcare industry, for a purchase price of $2.3B paid in cash.
• LLY, NVO active after press report indicating that LLY and NVO are planning to sell GLP-1s to employers at upfront fixed prices to employers via a partnership with Waltz Health, bypassing traditional drug sales channels with rebates.
• MRK among leaders in the Dow today after the FDA approved its combination therapy to treat muscle invasive bladder cancer.
• In Medical Technology: VEEV reported a Q3 beat & raise, as revenue +16% Y/y (consensus +14%), EPS +17% Y/y (consensus +12%) and raised Q4 by 1% (revenue/EPS +LDD), though shares fell following CRM commentary as now expects 14 of top 20 Pharma to migrate to Vault CRM, down from 18 currently. DOCS was upgraded to Strong Buy at Raymond James following a significant dislocation in shares post FQ2 results, with the current risk/reward at 25x FCF looking too compelling to ignore.

• Tech bond fears: ORCL dropped below the $200 level (off 9/10/25 record highs of $345.72) amid growing investor fears that the rapid rise in public debt used to bankroll AI investments could strain the U.S. corporate bond market. Note since September, public bond issuance by four of the major cloud computing and AI platform companies known as "hyperscalers" has hit nearly $90 billion, with GOOGL selling $25 billion in bonds, META $30 billion, ORCL $18 billion, and AMZN the most recent, $15 billion.
• In Software: ESTC reported a Q2 beat & raise, though Cloud revenue a touch softer than expected and investors needing little reason to sell observability/SIEM names post the Chronosphere acquisition suggested Keybanc. Stifel noted shares fell as investors were disappointed by Elastic’s skinny beat (1% vs 3% Q/Q) after the company raised Q2/FY guidance in October.
• In Telecom & Media: TMUS was downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer and removed the firm’s $300 price target on the shares saying the company will have a difficult time beating subscriber and free cash flow estimates after a decade of outsized share gains and margin expansion. Reuters reported WBD has received preliminary buyout bids from rivals PSKY, NFLX and CMCSA citing a source familiar with the matter said on Thursday, kicking off a potential sale of the century-old Hollywood studio.