Closing Recap

Monday, November 24, 2025

After several weeks of stock market pullbacks on AI valuation concerns and fears of the Fed slowing rate cuts, with the Nasdaq down 3 straight weeks coming into today, the S&P down 3 of last 4 and the Russell 2000 down the last 4 weeks, it was strong buying on the open and throughout the day! Major averages climbed further above their key technical support levels which they breached mid last week (both 50dma and 100dma) in a bout of buying in beaten up technology stocks and consumer discretionary today while energy and consumer staples lagged. Investors stepped in on buying mega cap tech, beaten up data centers, Bitcoin miners and other speculative sectors while prediction market Kalshi noted December rate cut odds surge to 75%, a 50% jump from last week. This may be a holiday-shortened week with markets closed Thursday for Thanksgiving Day and NYSE closes at 1:00 PM on Friday, but that doesn’t stop a heavy dose of recently delayed economic data out this week including PPI, Retail Sales, and weekly Jobless Claims. Energy stocks and defense contractors declined as traders weigh the prospect of a Ukraine-Russia peace deal this week after President Zelenskiy’s chief of staff said discussions demonstrated significant progress in reconciling positions. Stocks got another boost to highs (pushing the S&P 500 SPX above 6,700) mid afternoon after President Trump noted he had a call with Chinese leader Xi who invited him to visit Beijing in April (which he accepted), and Trump reciprocated where he will be his guest for a State Visit in the U.S. later in the year. Note stocks rebounded nicely today, but can it continue this week? Note bonds are having their best year since 2020, gold is having its best year since 1979, and the S&P 500 is up 14% YTD after back-to-back 25% years! Pretty impressive with one month to the year remaining.

In Fed speakers, it was dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams on Friday that boosted hopes of a December interest rate cut while today, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he is pushing for an interest-rate cut at the next Fed meeting. Waller cited a soft labor market and slowing inflation as basis for a rate cut. “Inflation isn’t a big problem going forward. It’s going to start pulling back,” Waller said in an interview on Fox Business Network. Last week Waller said the central bank should lower rates by another quarter point next month to “provide additional insurance against an acceleration in the weakening of the labor market.” Lastly, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told the WSJ this afternoon she backs a December rate cut, warning the labor market is vulnerable and more likely to deteriorate suddenly than for inflation to flare back up.

Trump administration working on fallback tariff options if SCOTUS rules against it. Bloomberg sources said Trump administration weighing alternative trade authorities to reinstitute tariffs if SCOTUS rules against national security duties imposed under International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). IEEPA authority allowed Trump to impose reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico.

• Bitcoin prices were down more than -2% this morning, but as stock market rebounded, so did crypto markets with Bitcoin rising nearly 1% this afternoon around $88,650. Note Bitcoin just had its worst week since February, down over -30% from last month’s peak given recent market “risk-off mood”, some hawkish Fed signals after Jerome Powell warned a December rate cut isn’t guaranteed (though NY Fed’s John Williams later softened the tone), along with Institutional outflows of late.
• U.S. WTI crude oil futures settle at $58.84/bbl, rising $0.78, or 1.34% while Brent crude futures settle at $63.37/bbl, rising $0.81 or 1.29% after trading lower initially this morning after the White House hailed progress in talks with Ukraine to end the war with Russia. But prices rebounded on improved rate cut expectations and on dip buying after having fallen 4 of the last five days.

• In Retailers: TSCO was upgraded to Buy at Jefferies and upped tgt to $64 from $58 saying the company’s strong value proposition gives it a competitive edge over peers, driven by sharp pricing supported by predominantly domestic sourcing. Also sees TSCO shares as a potential "hedge" given the resilience of its customer demographic and momentum behind early-stage, needle-moving growth initiatives.

• In Online Travel: BKNG was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Bank America with an unchanged price target of $6,000 saying they believe concerns about disintermediation risks to Booking from GOOGL and OpenAI’s Agentic tools are overdone and sees AI-related selloff in shares creating a buying opportunity.
• In Auto dealers/Retailers/Tech: CVNA was upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Wedbush with a $400 price target as believes the recent pullback in shares is overdone, and investors should take advantage of this period of relative weakness; WRD reported quarterly loss but reported revs up 140% y/y to $24.00M from $9.977M; PONY announced an expanded partnership with Sunlight Mobility to implement an asset-light model

• In Metals & Mining: BHP announced that it has given up on the plan to acquire its British rival Anglo American (NGLOY), a transaction that would have created the world’s largest copper mining company. Gold miner Barrick Mining Corp. (B) announced that it has entered into an agreement which puts an end to all of its disputes with the Government of the Republic of Mali regarding the Loulo and Gounkoto mines.
• In E&C Sector: Jacobs (J) initiated at Buy and $158 PT at Goldman Sachs, neutral rated on GVA and Sell rated on PRIM ($117 PT) in Engineering & Construction sector – staying Selective amid a mixed Construction growth outlook and Cycle-high margins. Goldman said be selective as expects non-residential Construction growth to moderate before reaccelerating (up 3% in ‘26, up 5% in ‘27) as policy support fades/macro uncertainty rises.
• In Waste Sector: Goldman Sachs said it sees an attractive entry point to buy durable growth backed by competitive moat as they initiate WM ($256 PT), RSG ($255 PT) and WCN ($202 PT) all with Buys and Neutral on GFL, CLH. Said Environmental Services stocks have shifted from low-growth defensives to high-quality compounders and expect a durable price-cost spread to support high-single-digit % EPS growth through the Cycle, with additional upside from landfill gas, recycling investments, and company-specific initiatives like Wm’s synergy realization, WCN’s M&A, and RSG’s polymer investments.
• In Aerospace & Defense: ASTS was upgraded from Sector Underperform to Sector Perform w/ $45.60 pt at Scotiabank citing valuation after the company lost more than half of its market cap over the last 35 days. Defense stocks BA, GD, LHX, LMT, NOC declined after President Trump said on Monday that the U.S. and Ukraine had made "big progress" in settling on a peace proposal to put to Russia.
• In Shippers/Tankers: DSX announces it has submitted a letter to the Board of Directors of GNK setting forth a proposal to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Genco not already owned by Diana for $20.60 per share in cash. The Company currently owns approximately 14.8% of Genco’s outstanding shares. The proposed price represents a 15% premium to the closing price of Genco’s shares on November 21, 2025.

• In Consumer Lending: GDOT agrees to be bought by Smith Ventures and Commerce One. Upon completion of the acquisition, each share of Green Dot will be exchanged for $8.11 in cash and 0.2215 shares of the new publicly traded bank holding company that will own CommerceOne’s existing business, including CommerceOne Bank and Green Dot Bank.
• In Banks: MS was upgraded to Outperform at Wolfe Research saying they believe revenues are poised to accelerate from both continued Ib growth / shares gains, as well as accelerating organic growth in Wm (record recruitment, better corporate stock plan / GFO pipeline conversion). BLFY and FULT announced that they have entered into a definitive merger agreement pursuant to which Fulton will acquire Blue Foundry in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $243 million, or $11.67 per share of Blue Foundry common stock.
• In REITs: VNO was upgraded from Underweight to Neutral at JP Morgan as thinks the recent pullback starts to open up an opportunity while fundamentals continue to show strength. Stepping back, VNO stock is now down 20% YTD versus REITs up 4% and the S&P 500 being up 14%. BDN was downgraded to Underweight at JP Morgan from Neutral and lowered its FFO estimates, primarily driven by the one-time penalty from prepaying the $245M secured term loan.

• Bayer (BAYRY) reported positive results from a clinical trial for an experimental stroke-preventing drug which had previously shown to be ineffective in another trial. Bayer said that the once-daily 50mg asundexian medication, when combined with antiplatelet therapy, lowered the risk of stroke in patients during a late-stage trial, meeting the primary objective of the study. (note BMY and JNJ are higher as both are developing another experimental drug, milvexian, that uses the same mechanism)
• BIIB and Dayra Therapeutics announce research collaboration to discover and develop oral macrocyclic peptides for priority targets in immunological conditions; Dayra to receive $50M upfront payment from Biogen. Biogen also advanced after NVO said its diabetes drug Rybelsus failed to meet its main goal in late-stage trials testing whether the medicine can slow cognitive decline in Alzheimer’s patients (BIIB and partner Eisai’s Leqembi and LLY’s Kisunla are the only approved treatments for Alzheimer’s in the U.S.).
• ENLV announces positive 6-mo topline data –demonstrating durable and persistent pain reduction and improved function in primary age-related patients with moderate to severe knee osteoarthritis.
• MRK was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo and raise tgt to $125 from $90 saying following recent business development, pipeline progress, and new launches, the firm sees Merck filling the shortfall from Keytruda LOE and growing revenue in the early 2030s.
• NVO shares tumbled after saying Evoke Phase 3 trials didn’t show statistically significant reduction in Alzheimer’s disease progression; trials evaluated efficacy, safety of oral semaglutide compared to placebo on top of standard of care (shares of BIIB advanced in reaction).

• In Medical Equipment: INSP shares jumped after being upgraded to Buy at Stifel and raised tgt to $110 saying CMS announced a significant boost to Medicare reimbursement rates for Inspire therapy procedures. Reimbursement for the Inspire insertion procedure (CPT code 64582) rose by approximately 50%, from around $22,000 in 2025 to over $33,000 in 2026. Ambulatory Surgery Centers (ASCs): Similar uplift, with rates increasing from ~$18,000 to ~$27,000, making ASCs even more economically viable for these procedures. Piper noted the CMS update on rates for Medicare facility reimbursement in the HOPD/ ASC (outpatient) settings for CY2026 showed a few positive surprises. Overall rates are up +2.6%, which is an increase from the +2.4% proposed in July. Perhaps the biggest positive surprise was regarding CPT code 64568, which was reassigned to new tech APC 1580—resulting in sizable increases to facility reimbursement for HGNS and VNS procedures (good for INSP, LIVN, and NYXH).

• In AI/Data Center: Anthropic on Monday announced Claude Opus 4.5, its third major AI model launch in two months. The model excels at coding, using computers and assisting users with complex enterprise tasks, the company said. Anthropic said ideal Opus 4.5 users include professional software developers and knowledge workers like financial analysts, consultants and accountants. AMZN also announces plans to invest $15B in Northern Indiana to build new data center campuses and advance Ai innovation; Planned investment will create 1,100 jobs and support new workforce development training programs.
• In Software: FROG was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS while raise tgt to $65 from $48, after resuming coverage of the name saying channel checks indicate broad-based strength with no signs of slowing demand or rising competitive pressure.
• In Media: GRND shares fell after saying it has ended talks on a non-binding proposal from major shareholders to take the company private for $3.46B, citing uncertainty over financing. The proposal, from investors Ray Zage and James Lu, who together control more than 60% of Grindr’s outstanding stock, lacked clarity on funding commitments, the company said. TGNA, NXST, NMAX shares active after President Trump notes he opposes lifting local tv Station ownership cap.
• In Quantum: IONQ announced a new investment and strategic partnership with Heven AeroTech, a developer of advanced hydrogen-powered unmanned aerial system solutions for defense and aerospace missions; BTQ announced its inclusion in the MSCI Canada Small Cap Index, effective as of November 25, 2025, following the October index review by MSCI Inc.