Mid-Morning Look

Tuesday, November 25, 2025

U.S. stocks off to a choppy start as the S&P 500 (SPX) flirts around the 6,700 level, while the tech heavy Nasdaq slides and the Smallcap Russell 2000 rises. There was a flurry of economic data this morning for investors to digest as government reports play catch up after the 43 day shutdown delayed data. We saw weaker Retail Sales data, cooler/to inline PPI inflation data, weaker Richmond Fed manufacturing and a notable downtick in consumer confidence (more details below). In global news, the US and Ukraine have drafted a new 19 point peace deal but left the most politically sensitive elements to be decided by the countries’ presidents, according to Ukraine’s first deputy foreign minister. Smallcaps Russell 2000 clear outperformer over large cap tech as big chip names (NVDA, AMD, ARM) and AI related plays are weaker, though GOOGL makes new all-time highs again. Handful of notable movers in tech and retail overnight/this morning post earnings with ANF, KSS surge, BBY rises in retail while BURL, DKS decline. Crypto prices downtick again after brief reprieve yesterday as Bitcoin remains on track for monthly loss of -20% with three trading days left. Oil prices fall, gold surges in shortened trading weak with markets closed on Thursday.

• Retail sales for September rose +0.2%, below consensus +0.4% and vs August +0.6%; Sept Retail Sales Ex-autos +0.3%, in-line with consensus and vs August +0.6%; Sept gasoline sales +2.0% vs Aug +0.4%, Sept cars/parts sales -0.3% vs Aug +0.6% and Sept Retail Sales Ex-autos/gasoline +0.1% vs Aug +0.6%.
• Inflation data mostly in-line to below estimates for September Headline Producer Prices (PPI) M/M rose +0.3%, in-line with expectations and y/y rose +2.7% vs. est. +2.6%. On a core basis (excludes food & energy) rises +0.1% vs. est. +0.2% and on a y/y basis rises +2.6% vs. est. +2.7%.
• US September 20-metro area home prices +1.4% (consensus +1.4%) from year ago vs +1.6% in August (previous +1.6%) — S&P Case-Shiller. US September home prices in 20 metro areas +0.1% seasonally adj (consensus +0.1%) vs revised +0.1% in August (previous +0.2%).
• Richmond Fed composite manufacturing index -15 in Nov vs -4 in October and Richmond Fed manufacturing shipments index -14 in Nov vs +4 in October.
• U.S. Aug inventory/sales ratio 1.37 months’ worth vs July 1.37 months; U.S. Aug business sales +0.2% vs July +1.0% (prev +1.0%) and Aug retail inventories ex-autos revised to unchanged (prev +0.3%).
• Consumer Confidence index 88.7 (consensus 93.4) vs Oct revised 95.5 (previous 94.6).

• In Banks: UK Banks BCS, LYGand NWG shares rose after reports that the banking sector would be spared when Treasury chief Rachel Reeves outlines her plans for tax increases and spending changes Wednesday; FIBK will replace HBI in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Tuesday, December 2. RY and TD were both downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies saying the Canadian banks are trading at fair value levels following the recent rally. Sales growth will remain challenged for the group and credit pressures are yet to dissipate, which brings greater downside risk than upside potential.
• Beauty and Consumer: EL was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Redburn (tgt to $70 from $83) saying the company is early in its transformation and the shares have rally on the hopes of a strong turnaround. The firm upgraded L’Oreal (LRLCY) to Buy from Neutral saying it is the only company to have mastered the complexity of Beauty globally. Also initiated both PUGBY and COTY at Neutral.

• KEYS +8%; reported better than expected fiscal Q4 results with better organic growth and acquisitions driving upside to fiscal 2026 estimates/core orders grow +12% y/y in 4QF25 (October), above expectation for +8% y/y core growth and orders were $116mn above consensus.
• KSS +34%; shares jumped on better results and raised outlook as Q3 sales 43.4B topped $3.32B estimate on better adj EPS $0.20 vs. est. loss (-$0.20) while raised its 2025 adjusted EPS FY view to be between $1.25-$1.45, compared with the prior range of $0.50-$0.80; boosts year sales and comps.
• SEM +15%; said they received a non-binding indication of interest from Robert A. Ortenzio, Executive Chairman, Co-Founder and Director of Select Medical, to acquire all of the outstanding shares of Select Medical for cash consideration of $16.00 to $16.20 per share of our common stock.
• SPOT +2%; will raise its U.S. subscription prices in the first quarter of next year, the Financial Times reported on Monday, which would mark the first price increase in the U.S. since June 2024.
• SYM +35%; shares rallied as reported FQ4 results that beat expectations on stronger revenue and margins and introduced its FQ126 outlook that included above-consensus revenue, with EBITDA margins in line with estimates; also made announcement of Medline as a new customer.
• ZIM +7%; shares bounced after the company said it has received interest from multiple parties, including strategic interest, which it is evaluating carefully. ZIM board recently added two new members, Yair Avidan and Dr. Yoram Turbowicz, to help the company better assess value-maximizing options.
• ZM +8%; reported better-than-expected Q3 results, with non-GAAP EPS of $1.52 (consensus 1.44), non-GAAP operating margin of 41.2% (consensus 38.8%), strong free cash flow of $614M (consensus $422M) on revenue of 1.235B and better-than-expected Q4 guidance – also announced $1B share buyback.

• COIN -5%; downgraded to Hold at Argus with no price target noting the stock is trading at 39-times expected forward earnings, which is well above the 24- to 27-times multiples of the other exchanges.
• DKS -2%; posted earnings and said they are optimizing inventory and closing underperforming stores to address unproductive assets; said expects Q4 2025 operating profit for Foot Locker to be slightly negative; said for Q3 (ex: Foot Locker), saw comparable sales rise 5.7%, vs. est. 3.6%.
• NVDA -7%; shares fell early after a report in The Information reported that META is considering using GOOGL tensor processing units (TPUs) in its data centers in 2027. Meta may also rent TPUs from Google’s cloud unit next year, the publication reported (other chip names like AMD, ARM also hit hard).
• MSTR -3%; as Bitcoin prices continue to fall hitting the crypto sector; MSCI index fears remain.
• ORCL -4%; extends declines, now down over -45% from all time highs 2 months ago amid rising concerns about liabilities – much of backlog tied to OpenAI.
• SMTC -10%; Q3 and revenue guidance were offset by mix related gross margin pressure that resulted in its EPS outlook being one penny shy of ests.