Mid-Morning Look

Wednesday, November 26, 2025

U.S. stocks open higher, looking to extend their winning streak to four days ahead of tomorrow’s Thanksgiving Day holiday where markets are closed. Investors have been buying beaten up tech stocks in recent days as sentiment improved about a higher likelihood of a Fed rate cut in December after some Fed officials (Williams, Waller) sounded more dovish in recent days. Economic data has been trickling out following the 43-day gov’t shutdown, seeing some signs of weakness in the economy while inflation staying steady/dipping slightly, helping the case for a rate cut. Stocks and bonds also rallied after White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett emerged as the frontrunner to be the next Federal Reserve chair (market received positively). Treasury price advanced as yields dipped this week with the 10-yr around 4% for the first time this month as retail sales, consumer confidence and labor data weakened. Busy night of earnings as recent results from ANF, KSS and URBN in the retail space gives hopes for the sector into Black Friday, while tech earnings were mixed overnight. We still get the Fed Beige Book later this afternoon in what should be quiet/low volume. All eleven S&P sectors are higher to start the day, led by Consumer Staples, materials and Energy rising the most.

• Weekly jobless claims decrease to 216,000 from a revised 222,000, indicating layoffs remain contained (and below ests 225,000); the 4-week moving average fell to 223,750 from 224,750 prior, continued claims climbed to 1.960M from 1.953M prior week and the U.S. insured unemployment rate held at 1.3%.
• In a shutdown-delayed report, September durable goods orders grow +0.5%, above consensus +0.3% and slowing from August’s revised 3%. Sept Durables ex-transportation orders +0.6% (cons +0.2%) vs Aug +0.5% (prev +0.3%). U.S. Sept Durables ex-defense orders +0.1% vs Aug +1.9% (prev +1.9%). U.S. Sept Gen. Machinery orders +0.1%, electrical Equipment +1.5%, Defense Aircraft/parts +30.9%

• In Online betting: shares UK gambling stocks FLUT, GMVHY (Entain) may be active after Britain’s Office for Budget Responsibility said finance minister Rachel Reeves is set to increase gambling duties in her budget, raising fears of steep costs restricting industry growth. The OBR also said that from April 2027, a new rate of general betting duty of 25% will be introduced for remote betting, excluding some services. In Casinos (WYNN, LVS, MGM, CZR): Goldman Sachs said With October visitation down -4.4% y/y, Vegas marks its tenth consecutive quarter of declining visitation y/y, but a marked improvement from recent trends in the HSD%-LDD% declines over the past year.

• CLSK +5%; reported inline revs but beat on Adj. EBITDA while mining reached a milestone of 50 EH operational/pushed towards HPC and mgmt stated that “2 customers want to sign by year-end”.
• DELL +3%; reported better-than-expected Q3 results and raised its AI server guidance; Q3 results showed modest upside on ISG, driven by Storage and Ai Server, and downside on CSG while gross margins improved driving OI/EPS upside; Q4 revs $31B-432B vs. est. 427.6B); FY26 guidance was also raised.
• HLF +6%; after Argus upgraded to Buy at Argus based on the Q325 earnings beat, Argus is raising its 2025 EPS estimate to $2.15 from $2.12 and increasing its 2026 estimate to $2.64 from $2.60.
• IRWD +7%; after saying U.S. Department of HHS has set the new Medicare price for Co’s Linzess at $136 for a 30-day supply; new price will apply from Jan. 1, 2027, under Inflation Reduction Act.
• URBN +12%; better-than-expected earnings for Q3, as same-store sales climbed 8%, sending shares higher. Strong top-line beat (comp +8% vs Street +5%) with UO and Anthro leading outperformance. The UO brand continued to outperform, and its comp turnaround accelerated (+12.5% vs. Street +4.7%)
• WOOF +13%; as reported Q3 adj. EBITDA of $99M (ahead of Street $93M) while net sales were -3.1% Y/y, reflecting comp declines of -2.2% (vs. Street -1.7%) and the impact of 24 net store closings.

• DE -2%; shares fell after reported strong Q4 results with EPS $3.93 vs. est. $3.85 and Q4 revs rising 11% Y/y to $12.39B vs. est. $9.84B but said net Income for Q4 2025 falls 14% yr/yr amid higher tariffs and costs and sees FY26 net Income between $4.00B-$4.75B below $5.31B est.; CEO said ongoing profit margin pressures from tariff expenses and “persistent challenges” in its large tractor business will continue.
• HPQ -2%; shares fell after saying they plan to cut up to 10% of its workforce as it invests further in AI. Its annual adj EPS guidance of $2.60-$3.20 misses the est. $3.33; warned that skyrocketing prices for memory chips could be a drag on its results for the current fiscal year.
• NTNX -15%; shares fell after reporting in-line Q1 results but cut their full-year sales outlook, citing a shift in revenue to future periods/timing delays; cuts FY26 revenue view to $2.82B-$2.86B from $2.9B-$2.94B (est. $2.93B) and sees FY26 operating margin 21%-22%.
• PD -17%; after issued a disappointing Q4 revenue outlook (guides revs $122M-$124M vs. est. $126.9M) and also said CFO Howard Wilson plans to retire (was downgraded to Hold at Craig Hallum).
• WDAY -7%; reported largely in-line results and guidance, though cRPO growth of 17.6% was above expectations. Despite some modest Q3 subscription revenue outperformance, the FQ4 guide was largely left unchanged, and the company called out headwinds in higher ed.
• ZS -8%; reported a solid Q1 beat-and-raise amid mixed results from October FY Security peers thus far as Q1 ARR beat by $22M and was passed through to the FY26 guide, similar to Q125. Keybanc noted shares fell on uncertainty of Red Canary’s contribution to Q1 NNARR, as well as the slight Q2 NNARR guide below.