Closing Recap

Wednesday, November 26, 2025

U.S. stocks Wall Street’s main indexes rose for a fourth consecutive session on Wednesday, as investors doubled down on bets the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December following another round of economic data. Nearly all eleven S&P sectors finished notably higher today with Healthcare the only laggard as mega-cap stocks led gains across the board, pushing the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to two-week highs, while the Dow was near its two-week peak. A much different picture for Wall Street from last Thursday where the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow all crossed below their respective 50 and 100 day moving averages, in one big “V” shaped recovery the last 4-days. The biggest change to markets over the last 4 days was the 180 degree change in investor sentiment on FOMC interest rate cuts in December. Prior to last Friday, chances had dropped under 40% for a cut possibility given the unknown economic data due to the government shutdown. But after a bout of reports since, a few Fed speakers have stopped up in a more “dovish” tone, including number 2 NY Fed President Williams last week favoring a cut, while others have followed suit in recent days. That has helped prop up interest rate sensitive names such as gold prices, Smallcaps stocks, and bonds, while Bitcoin saw its first bounce today. As of today, the expectations are for more than an 87% chance for a rate cut. We will see in three weeks. The Russell 2000 was up around 7% the last 4 trading days, major averages in general are up in 4 days and gold is up 3% this week. Reminder stock markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving, and open until 1:00 pm et on Friday.

In the latest Beige Book report, the Federal Reserve stated: “Employment declined slightly over the current period with around half of Districts noting weaker labor demand. Despite an uptick in layoff announcements, more Districts reported contacts limiting headcounts using hiring freezes, replacement-only hiring, and attrition than through layoffs. In addition, several employers adjusted hours worked to accommodate higher or lower than expected business volume instead of adjusting the number of employees. A few firms noted that artificial intelligence replaced entry-level positions or made existing workers productive enough to curb new hiring.”

• Weekly jobless claims decrease to 216,000 from a revised 222,000, indicating layoffs remain contained (and below ests 225,000); the 4-week moving average fell to 223,750 from 224,750 prior, continued claims climbed to 1.960M from 1.953M prior week and the U.S. insured unemployment rate held at 1.3%.
• In a shutdown-delayed report, September durable goods orders grow +0.5%, above consensus +0.3% and slowing from August’s revised 3%. Sept Durables ex-transportation orders +0.6% (cons +0.2%) vs Aug +0.5% (prev +0.3%). U.S. Sept Durables ex-defense orders +0.1% vs Aug +1.9% (prev +1.9%). U.S. Sept Gen. Machinery orders +0.1%, electrical Equipment +1.5%, Defense Aircraft/parts +30.9%.

• WTI crude prices rose $0.70 or 1.21% to settle at $58.65 per barrel. U.S. crude stocks, gasoline and distillate inventories rose last week, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report. Crude inventories climbed by 2.8 million barrels well above the expected 55,000-barrel build; crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, fell by 68,000 barrels in the week. U.S. gasoline stocks added 2.5 million barrels vs. est. 745,000-barrel build.​ Lastly, Distillate stockpiles rose by 1.1 million barrels to 112.2 million barrels, versus expectations for a 556,000-barrel rise, the EIA data showed.
• After a horrendous month for Bitcoin, falling more than -20% as of this afternoon for November, prices saw a spike late day, with prices rising 3.4% above $90,000 and Ethereum also spiking +3.5% thru $3,000. Prices have fallen on hawkish comments from the Fed the last few weeks, but recent dovish comments from NY Fed President Willias as well as Waller ahead of the December rate meeting has improved rate cut expectations with now an 83% chance as per latest fed fund futures.

• In Electric Vehicles: Chinese EV maker LI reported an unexpected adjusted loss for the third quarter; reported Q3 revenue fell 36.2% Y/y to RMB27.4B, Q3 net loss of RMB624.4M, compared to net Income last year and vehicle deliveries in Q3 decreased 39% Y/y to 93,211 units

• Needham says Pre-Black Friday checks suggest momentum at RL, tougher trends at VFC’s Vans. Overall, Needham continues to be most encouraged by its checks on RL and LEVI, as both brands seem to have strong demand and restrained discounting. Unsurprisingly, the most challenged business appears to be VFC’s Vans brand, as Needham sees elevated discounting and negative demand indicators.

• In Casinos (WYNN, LVS, MGM, CZR): Goldman Sachs said With October visitation down -4.4% y/y, Vegas marks its tenth consecutive quarter of declining visitation y/y, but a marked improvement from recent trends in the HSD%-LDD% declines over the past year. This was helped by solid convention attendance which improved to +8%, helped by the calendar shift of OracleWorld (~30k attendees). However, Las Vegas Strip RevPAR remained soft, declining -7.4% y/y in October (vs. -7.9% in September),

• In addition to Ozempic, other drugs that will cost Medicare less thanks to the negotiations include GSK’s Trelegy asthma treatment, PFE’s breast-cancer therapy Ibrance and MRK Diabetes pill Janumet — all of them huge sellers. CMS said the new negotiated prices would reduce net spending on those drugs in Medicare — after rebates and fees — by about 44%, compared with 2024 levels. CMS estimates the new price cuts will save patients about $685M in out-of-pocket costs in 2027. The new Medicare price for the drugs is $274 a month. NVO had listed the prices for Ozempic and Rybelsus at $998 a month, and $1,349 a month for Wegovy, though the company has been reducing their cost recently.
• BHVN was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS and cut PT to $11 from $26 as multiple R&D/ regulatory setbacks on the pipeline have lowered their confidence on the viability of the remaining pipeline programs (Kv7/degrader/myostatin inhibitor).
• IRWD said U.S. Department of Health and Human Services has set the new Medicare price for co’s Linzess at $136 for a 30-day supply; new price will apply from Jan. 1, 2027, under Inflation Reduction Act.
• NKTR was initiated at Buy and $102 price target at Citigroup and opened a "positive 90-day catalyst watch" ahead of the Phase 2b alopecia areata data expected in December as believe data for rezpegaldesleukin in atopic dermatitis looks competitive in crowded field.
• VERA shares fell after competitor Otsuka’s Voyxact received conditional approval for the treatment of IgAN in patients at risk of disease progression.
• WOOF shares rose as reported Q3 adj. EBITDA of $99M (ahead of Street $93M) while net sales were -3.1% Y/y, reflecting comp declines of -2.2% (vs. Street -1.7%) and the impact of 24 net store closings.

• In Storage: NTNX shares fell after reporting in-line Q1 results but cut their full-year sales outlook, citing a shift in revenue to future periods/timing delays; cuts FY26 revenue view to $2.82B-$2.86B from $2.9B-$2.94B (est. $2.93B) and sees FY26 operating margin 21%-22%. NTAP reported better-than-expected second-quarter results, as the rise of AI helps to drive up demand.

• PD shares tumbled after issued a disappointing Q4 revenue outlook (guides revs $122M-$124M vs. est. $126.9M) and also said CFO Howard Wilson plans to retire (was downgraded to Hold at Craig Hallum).
• WDAY reported largely in-line results and guidance, though cRPO growth of 17.6% was above expectations. Despite some modest Q3 subscription revenue outperformance, the FQ4 guide was largely left unchanged, and the company called out headwinds in higher ed.
• ZS reported a solid Q1 beat-and-raise amid mixed results from October FY Security peers thus far as Q1 ARR beat by $22M and was passed through to the FY26 guide, similar to Q125. Keybanc noted shares fell on uncertainty of Red Canary’s contribution to Q1 NNARR, as well as the slight Q2 NNARR guide below.
• ORCL bounces back today after falling over -30% the last month after the company has taken an aggressive capex plan & funding a data center buildout that is outsized relative to its revenue base. The company has tied ~$500B of future obligations to one counterparty in OpenAI, which has weighed on sentiment.

• AMBA shares fell despite posting strong Q3 results and guided Q4 higher, as strength was driven by stronger results in Edge Ai (IoT), as Ai revs accounted for 80% of revs, as portable video (Insta360) and drones remain key drivers; Bank America noted gross margins GM (60.9% in Q3) is expected to see pressure from an increase in mix from high-volume customers with 59.75% Q4 guidance midpoint (still within 59-62% target model) landing below consensus.
• In Media: SSP said it has adopted a shareholder rights plan to give its board time to evaluate a $538M bid from rival SBGI and other options. The "poison pill" would come into effect if any investor amasses a stake exceeding 10%, allowing existing investors to buy additional Scripps shares at a 50% discount and diluting the stake of any hostile bidder – Reuters