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No News Is Good News
www.oneoption.com
The economic calendar is light today and that favors the up trend.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – There isn’t any news to stand in the way of seasonal strength and the market is floating higher. The brief round of profit taking yesterday ended quickly and the gap down was filled. There is some resistance at the high from Friday. It was tested yesterday and it is being challenged this morning.
The market has been hitting resistance at the $682 level and it is within striking distance of the all-time high. Tomorrow we will get ADP. The jobs report won’t be released Friday so ADP will carry more weight than usual. Challenger will be posted Thursday.
ISM Manufacturing came in at 48.2 yesterday and that was on the light side. It is in contraction territory. Tomorrow, ISM Services will be released after the open.
Interest rates have been creeping higher and this morning US 10-year Treasuries are below the 100-day MA and they could breach the 200-day MA. Why are yields rising when the Fed is preparing to cut? Our largest sovereign debt holders (Japan and China) are selling and that is putting upward pressure on yields. Even if the Fed cuts interest rates, longer term yields could rise. This is a longer-term issue for the US and it will have to pay higher rates as it refinances $9T in debt each year.
I am selling some OTM naked puts on stocks that I want to own at lower prices and I am selling some OTM put credit spreads. I am not going out more than a few weeks. With the FOMC Statement next week I believe we will see bullish price action into December 10th. The market is expecting a rate cut (86%) next week.
The volume has been light and we have seen two-sided price action. For day trades, pick a side and wait for your turn. I am seeing good opportunities on both sides. When a move in one direction stalls, look for a move the other way.
Support is at $676.72 and resistance is at $683.66.
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