Daily Commentary: December 03, 2025

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ADP Showed Job Losses

Posted by Pete Stolcers on December 03
www.oneoption.com

The private sector lost 32K jobs in November according to ADP and that was worse than the 5K growth that was expected.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – During the government shutdown employment data was not collected. That is giving ADP more weighting than normal. Conditions have been weak and 32K job losses in the private sector should prompt the Fed to ease next week. Challenger will report planned layoffs tomorrow.

The initial reaction to ADP was muted and the market was floating higher. Thirty minutes before the open, Microsoft said that it is lowering forecasts for AI sales quotas. The S&P 500 fell 30 points on the news and this is impacting the tech sector. Much of the rally has been based on AI growth.

After the open ISM Services will be released. A reading of 52 is expected and that would be in expansion territory. ISM Manufacturing was a bit soft on Monday and it is in contraction territory (48.2).

US 10-year Treasuries are bouncing off of the 100-day MA this morning and that is a slight positive.

The price action since the last FOMC statement has been volatile. We’ve seen two-sided price action and both sides have been able to move price. This movement is not consistent with year end strength and my market bias is neutral.

I am selling naked puts on strong stocks and I am selling out of the money bullish put spreads, but I have trimmed my activity. I will be more aggressive during drops and I will be less active during bounces. I am staying inside of a three week duration.

Day trading has been challenging this week. We had a bit of a holiday hangover and the news has been light. The price action has been very choppy and that is a sign that it is largely driven by programs. This is likely to change today and we should have good movement. Be patient and pick your spots wisely. I could make a case for movement in either direction.

If you find a strong or a weak stock with excellent price action and a heavy volume breakout, zero in on it and try to time your entry. If the stock is weak, wait for a stalled market rally and look for an opportunity to enter. If the stock is strong, wait for a market dip to find support and enter. If you can find one or two good trades, that’s all you need and that is all you can expect. Don’t overstay your welcome.

Overseas markets were mixed with Japan up, China down and Europe slightly lower. There is not much of an influence there.

Support is at $679 and resistance is at $684.

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