Early Look

Tuesday, December 9, 2025

Stock futures were inching higher Tuesday as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates with S&P futures trading in a narrow 22 point range overnight. U.S. stocks slipped on Monday on light volumes, as the S&P 500 snapped its 4-day winning streak ahead of this week’s FOMC interest rate policy meeting where Wall Street awaits a 25-bps cut. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index rose 73 points to 50,655, the Shanghai Index fell -14 points to 3,909, and the Hang Seng Index decline -331 points to 25,434. In Europe, the German DAX is up 76 points to 24,122, while the FTSE 100 is up 12 points to 9,657. NVDA share advanced yesterday after receiving approval to export certain AI processors to China, but the Financial Times reported overnight that Beijing is considering allowing only tightly controlled access to Nvidia’s H200 chips, requiring buyers to apply and justify why local alternatives are not sufficient. Treasuries mixed, with yields lower at the long end, unchanged at the short. Outside of waiting for the Fed tomorrow afternoon, later this morning we get JOLTs job openings for September and a $42B 10-year note auction. Just a waiting game at this point until tomorrows FOMC meeting.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -215.67 points, or 0.45%, to 47,739.32
• The Nasdaq Composite dropped -32.22 points, or 0.14%, to 23,545.90
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -0.50 points, or 0.02% to 2,520.99

• 7:45 AM ET ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
• 8:55 AM ET                  Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
• 10:00 AM ET                JOLTs Job Openings for September…est. 7.15M (prior 7.22M)
• 10:00 AM ET                 Leading Index M/M for September…est. (-0.3%)
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $42B in 10-year notes
• 4:30 PM ET API Weekly Inventory Data

• Earnings After the Close: AOUT AVAV BRZE CASY CBRL GME GNSS LAKE LE MIND PLAY YQ

• Barclays 23^rd Annual Global Technology Conference, 12/10-12/12, in San Francisco, CA
• REITWorld 2025, 12/9-12/10 in Dallas, TX
• Goldman Sachs 2025 Financials Services Conference, 12/9-12/10, in New York
• Stifel Medtech Madness West Coast Bus Tour, 12/8-12/11
• China PPI and CPI for November

• The European Central Bank will propose simplifying rules on capital buffers required of banks, pruning some of the complex regulation put in place after the global financial crisis, two sources told Reuters. The list of measures that ECB vice-president Luis de Guindos will present to reporters on Thursday aims for fewer, rather than lower, requirements for the amount of capital lenders must hold to cushion themselves against potential shocks.

• Home Depot (HD) backs FY25 adjusted EPS view, down -15% from $15.24 and backs FY25 revenue view up 3% and FY25 comparable sales view up slightly; guides FY26 adjusted EPS flat to up 4%, FY26 revenue up 2.5%-4.5% and FY26 comparable sales flat to up 2%.
• Mama’s Creations (MAMA) Q3 adj Ebitda $3.8M vs. est. $2.65M; Q3 revs $47.3M vs. est. $43.2M; said secured new tier-one national placements at Target and Food Lion; Cash and cash equivalents as of October 31, 2025 totaled $18.1 million, as compared to $7.2 million as of January 31, 2025.
• Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman Sachs with a price target of $21, down from $23. Viking Holdings (VIK) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman as well in cruise lines.
• PepsiCo (PEP) announced certain commercial and financial priorities to enhance shareholder value, including a preliminary 2026 financial outlook. The announcement followed a comprehensive review of PepsiCo’s strategic initiatives and plans. This announcement incorporates constructive engagement and is supported by PepsiCo shareholder Elliott Investment Management.
• Toll Brothers (TOL) Q4 EPS $4.58 vs. est. $4.88 and revs $3.42B vs. est. $3.32B; said for Q4, delivered 11,292 homes at an average price of $960,000, generating a record $10.8B of home sales revenues, and posted an adjusted gross margin of 27.3%, an SG&A margin of 9.5%; Q4 Backlog value was $5.5B vs. $6.5B at FY 2024’s Q4 end and homes in backlog were 4,647 compared to 5,996.
• Vital Farms Inc. (VITL) will replace Heidrick & Struggles Intl Inc. HSII) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Thursday, December 11. Advent International and Corvex Private Equity are acquiring Heidrick & Struggles Intl in a deal expected to be completed soon, pending final closing conditions.
• Xponential Fitness, Inc. (XPOF) announces debt refinancing, new credit facilities; announces $525M term loan facility which includes $25M revolving credit facility; company to repurchase all outstanding convertible Preferred equity.

• Graphic Packaging (GPK) announced additional details on its support function and production optimization plans, saying it has undertaken a review of support functions and corporate expenses and now expects savings of approximately $60M in staffing and other cost reductions in 2026; cuts FY25 adjusted EPS view to $1.75-$1.95 from $1.80-$2.00 while backs FY25 revenue view $8.4B-$8.6B; CEO Michael Doss to step down.
• Kinder Morgan (KMI) announces 2026 financial expectations as plans $3.4B capital expenditures for 2026 and said it expects $1.37 adj EPS for 2026, up from prior view of $1.27 on the back of strong natural gas demand.
• TechnipFMC (FTI) said it was awarded significant flexible pipe contract by Ithaca Energy in contract valued between $75M and $250M.

• Ares Management (ARES) will replace Kellanova (K) in the S&P 500 effective prior to the open of trading on Thursday, December 11. Mars Inc. is acquiring Kellanova in a deal expected to close soon, pending final closing conditions.
• Cohen & Steers (CNS) reported preliminary assets under management of $91.9B as of November 30, 2025, an increase of $1.3B from assets under management of $90.6B at October 31, 2025. The increase was due to market appreciation of $2B, partially offset by net outflows of $502M and distributions of $151M.
• Sezzle Inc. (SEZL) will replace Vital Energy Inc. (VTLE) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Monday, December 15. S&P SmallCap 600 constituent Crescent Energy Co. (CRGY) is acquiring Vital Energy in a deal expected to close soon, pending final closing conditions.
• United Community Banks (UCB) announces $100M extension of share repurchase program.

• CVS Health (CVS) nudges guidance higher as sees 2025 revenue at least $400B and adj EPS $6.60-6.70, with 2026 adj EPS at $7.00-7.20 and op cash flow ≥$10B; mgmt is targeting a mid-teens EPS CAGR through 2028 and launching an AI native “engagement as a service” platform.
• Phreesia (PHR) Q3 adj EBITDA $29.1M vs. $9.8M last year; Q3 revs $120.3M vs. est. $121.1M; raises FY26 revenue view to $479M-$481M from $472M-$482M (est. $485.9M) saying their updated revenue outlook includes approximately $7.5M of expected revenue from AccessOne between the November 12th closing date and January 31, 2026.
• Vor BioPharma (VOR) was initiated at overweight and $43 price target.
• Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) offers to sell $300M in common stock.
• Fulcrum Therapeutics (FULC) announces $150M offering of common stock.
• Kymera Therapeutics Inc (KYMR) announces $500 mln public offering.
• Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) announces proposed offering of $500M in ADS.
• Wave Life Sciences (WVE) announces proposed $250M offering of stock and warrants.

• Alphabet’s (GOOGL) Google faces an EU antitrust investigation into its use of publishers’ online content and YouTube videos to train its artificial intelligence models.
• AT&T (T) reiterates all full-year 2025 and multi-year financial guidance and capital return plans provided with its third-quarter 2025 earnings report, including $4B of share repurchases in 2025 and an expected $20B of share repurchase capacity during 2025-2027; continues to expect seasonally lower postpaid phone ARPU in Q4.
• Ooma Inc. (OOMA) Q3 adj EPS $0.27 vs. est. $0.22; Q3 revs rose 4% y/y to $67.6M, in-line with consensus; Q3 adj net income $7.7M vs. est. $6.21M and adj EBITDA $8.6M vs. est. $7.21M; guides Q4 EPS $0.30-$0.32 vs. est. $0.23 and revs $71.3M-$71.9M, vs. consensus $72.9M; sees FY26 revenue $270.3M-$270.9M, vs. consensus $268.1M.
• Beijing is considering allowing only tightly controlled access to Nvidia’s (NVDA) H200 chips, requiring buyers to apply and justify why local alternatives are not sufficient, Financial Times reports.
• ITT (ITT) 7M share Spot Secondary priced at $167.00.