Early Look

Wednesday, December 10, 2025

Happy Fed Day. After days of sideways trading action on Wall Street, low volumes and passiveness by investors on Wall Street, U.S. futures are down slightly, just off record highs in most cases as FOMC policy rate data is upon us. Markets are pricing in a nearly 90% chance the central bank will deliver its third consecutive quarter-point rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch tool. One of the few standouts on a lackluster trading day Tuesday was Smallcaps, as the Russell 2000 ended at a record high heading into today’s FOMC policy meeting. Traders will be watching the post-meeting statement, set for release at 2 p.m. ET Wednesday, and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference for clues on how the committee is thinking about the path forward. In addition to the FOMC meeting, Wall Street gets two giant software company earnings tonight with Oracle (ORCL) and Adobe Systems (ADBE). In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -52 points to 50,602, the Shanghai Index slipped -9 points to 3,900, and the Hang Seng Index advanced 106 points to 25,540. In Europe, the German DAX is down -111 points to 24,050, while the FTSE 100 is up 25 points to 9,667.

FOMC preview: Current market expectations is that the Fed cuts 25 bps, leaves forward guidance unchanged, and the 2026 median dot still shows one cut. The key is likely that the Fed doesn’t hint at a pause in the rate-cut cycle to keep stock markets rising through the end of the year. Dovish Scenario is that the Fed cuts 25 bps, keeps guidance unchanged, and the dot plot shows more than one cut in 2026 signaling a stronger commitment to easing and extends the rate-cut cycle into next year. A hawkish scenario is where there is either no cut (low probability at this point), or forward guidance shifts toward a pause, or the dots show zero cuts in 2026.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -179.03 points, or 0.28%, to 47,560.29
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 30.58 points, or 0.13%, to 23,576.49
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 5.26 points, or 0.21% to 2,526.24

• 8:30 AM ET                  Employment Cost Index (ECI) for Q3
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly DOE Inventory Data
• 2:00 PM ET FOMC Policy Meeting – 25bps rate cuts is expected

• Earnings After the Close: ADBE ASYS DLHC MTN NDSN ORCL OXM PL SKIL SNPS

• Barclays 23rd Annual Global technology Conference, 12/10-12/12, in San Francisco, CA
• DA Davidson 4th Annual Eastern Bank Summit, 12/10-12/11 (virtual)
• Goldman Sachs 2025 Financials Services Conference, 12/9-12/10, in New York
• Goldman Sachs Digital Infrastructure Conference, 12/10 in London
• Oppenheimer Winter industrials Summit, 12/10-12/11 (virtual)
• REITWorld 2025, 12/9-12/10 in Dallas, TX
• Roth 14th Annual Deer Valley Conference, 12/10, in Park City, Utah
• Stifel Medtech Madness West Coast Bus Tour, 12/8-12/11

• Japanese December Tankan Manufacturing Index reported at 10 vs 17 previously; Japanese Dec Tankan non-Manufacturing Index reported at 33 vs 27 previous.
• U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said the deadline for China to buy 12M metric tons of soybeans from American farmers is the end of the “growing season,” not the end of the calendar year. A Fact sheet issued by the White House says the deadline for the purchases, pursuant to China’s recent trade agreement with President Trump, is the end of December.

• Casy General’s (CASY) Q2 EPS $5.53 tops consensus $5.20 on in-line revs of $4.51B; Q2 inside same-store sales increased 3.3% y/y, and 7.5% on a two-year stack basis, with an inside margin of 42.4%; Q2 total inside gross profit increased 13.5% to $703.4M y/y; Same-store fuel gallons were up 0.8% y/y with a fuel margin of 41.6c per gallon.
• Church & Dwight Co., Inc. (CHD) has concluded its strategic review of its vitamin, minerals and supplement business and announced a definitive agreement to sell the VitaFusion and L’il Critters brands to Piping Rock Health Products, Inc.
• Cracker Barrel (CBRL) Q1 adj EPS loss (-$0.74) vs. est. $0.47; Q1 revs $797.2M vs. est. $800.28M; Q1 adj Ebitda $7.2M below consensus $48.5M; Q1 comp sales fell (-4.7%) vs. est. (-4%) and comparable store retail sales decreased (-8.5%) vs. est. (-6.5%) decline; cuts FY revs view to $3.2B-$3.3B from prior $3.35B-$3.45B.
• Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) Q3 adj EPS loss (-$1.14) vs. est. loss (-$0.79); Q3 revs fell -1.1% y/y to $448.2M vs. est. $469.7M; Q3 comp sales fell (-4%); Q3 Adjusted EBITDA fell to $59.4M from $68.3M y/y.
• GameStop (GME) Q3 adj EPS $0.24 on sales $821M, down from $860.3M y/y; Q3 Operating income was $41.3M for the period, compared to an operating loss of -$33.4M y/y; Net income was $77.1M for Q3, compared to net income of $17.4M y/y; Bitcoin holdings were valued at $519.4 million at the close of the Q3.
• PepsiCo (PEP) was upgraded to overweight from neutral at JP Morgan citing an accelerated agenda of innovation and marketing spending fueled by strong productivity savings.

• Airbus (EADSY) CEO says Boeing likely to win order race this year; CEO says Boeing (BA) orders buoyed by US tariff settlements; Airbus expected to remain the world’s biggest jet manufacturer as a result of deliveries; Airbus CEO completes software recall for A320 Family jets – Reuters.
• Ge Vernova Inc (GEV) increases share repurchase authorization to $10B, from $6B; raises FY25 free cash flow $3.5B-$4.0B, up from $3.0B-$3.5B prior view; sees FY26 revenue $41B-$42B, vs. consensus $41.3B and sees FY26 free cash flow $4.5B-$5.0B, adjusted EBITDA margin of $11%-13%; doubles dividend to $0.50 from $0.25; now anticipates $52B of revenue and 20% adjusted EBITDA margin by 2028, up from $45B of revenue and 14% adjusted EBITDA margin.
• Parsons (PSN) awarded $88M to provide systems engineering and integration solutions for U.S. air forces in Europe and Africa air base air Defense.
• JP Morgan adjusted ratings in the oilfield services and equipment outlook as part of its 2026 outlook as they retain a cautious sector stance citing upstream spending headwinds but sees some idiosyncratic growth opportunities. The firm expects oilfield service stocks to play second fiddle to upstream companies and other energy sub-sectors due to a weakening spending picture. Shares of HP, LBRT, PUMP were upgraded to Overweight, downgraded NE to Neutral and PTEN, RIG to Underweight

• Artisan Partners (APAM) reported that its preliminary assets under management as of November 30 totaled $180.8B. Artisan Funds and Artisan Global Funds accounted for $87.2B of total firm AUM, while separate accounts and other AUM accounted for $93.6B.
• Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) announced a strategic acquisition. The Bank has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire Mechanics Bank’s Delegated Underwriting and Servicing business line, which includes its experienced team and a $1.8B unpaid principal balance servicing portfolio.
• Lazard Inc. (LAZ) preliminary assets under management (“AUM”) as of November 30, 2025, totaled approximately $250.8 billion. The month’s AUM included net outflows of $18.0 billion, market appreciation of $1.1 billion, and FX depreciation of $0.1 billion.
• Willis Tower Watson (WTW) announced it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Newfront, a San Francisco-based, top 40 U.S. broker combining deep specialty expertise and cutting-edge technology. The agreement provides for upfront and contingent consideration payments totaling $1.3B

• Denali Therapeutics (DNLI) 9.143M share Spot Secondary priced at $17.50.
• Dyne Therapeutics (DYN) 18.98M share Secondary priced at $18.44
• Kymera Therapeutics (KYMR) 7M share Secondary priced at $86.00.
• Lakeland (LAKE) Q3 EPS loss (-$1.64) on revs $47.59M saying margin pressure has driven a decline in adjusted EBITDA as freight, mix and tariffs weighed on results; said challenges affected forecasting ability and are withdrawing their previously issued financial guidance for FY2026 and will not be providing financial guidance going forward.
• Praxis Precision Medicines (PRAX) announces alignment with FDA on simplified and accelerated registrational pathway for elsunersen in early onset scn2a developmental and epileptic encephalopathy.
• Structure Therapeutics (GPCR) 8.5M share Spot Secondary priced at $65.00.
• Terns Pharmaceuticals (TERN) 16.25M share Secondary priced at $40.00.

• Braze Inc. (BRZE) Q3 revs $190.8M vs. est. $184.08M; guides Q4 adj EPS $0.13-$0.14 on revs $197.5M-$198.5M, above consensus $0.13/$192.51M; said large customer count increased by 29% y/y; Driven by new customers, upsells, and renewals, revenue increased by 25.5% y/y.
• ChipMOS (IMOS) reports 16.7% YoY increase in November 2025 revenue.
• Coupang (CPNG) said that CEO Park Dae-Jun has resigned, taking responsibility for a huge data breach at the company that has triggered a growing backlash; the CEO “deeply apologizes for causing concerns to the public,” the company said in a statement.
• Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) announced the expansion of its NVIDIA Blackwell architecture portfolio with the introduction and shipment availability of new 4U and 2-OU (OCP) liquid-cooled NVIDIA HGX B300 systems.