Early Look

Thursday, December 11, 2025

S&P futures are looking lower, down -0.53% at 6,855 (off overnight lows 6,817.50) as tech leads lower following Oracle (ORCL) results and comments with shares down -11% premarket. Oracle missed on sales/operating Income and posted ugly cash flow. RPOs were amazing (for the 2nd quarter in a row), but there are still doubts about 1) the margins on this revenue and 2) whether certain firms can fulfill these obligations which are weighing on shares this morning. The pullback in stocks comes after markets surged on Wednesday, helped by another Fed induced rally, lifting nearly all eleven S&P sectors and only utilities finished slightly lower. The Russell 2000 Index (RTY) hit a fresh all-time high Wednesday, buoyed by a “dovish” interest rate cut and outlook, boosting interest rate sensitive sectors the most. Meanwhile the SPY hit highs of 688.97, just shy of the 689.70 record on 10/29 prior to the early November pullback, but was highest daily close all time today. The S&P Tech sector (XLK) posted its 13^th consecutive winning trading day, and Dow Transports jumped over 2.6% to 17,500 as Industrials and Materials were the big leaders. Mixed earnings/guidance results in tech last night as ORCL shares declined post slight rev miss, while ADBE, SNPS shares advances on results. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index declined -453 points to 50,148, the Shanghai Index dropped -27 points to 3,873, and the Hang Seng Index slips -10 points to 25,530. In Europe, the German DAX is up 23 points to 24,153, while the FTSE 100 is up 17 points to 9,673. Earnings reports continue with Broadcom (AVGO), Costco (COST) and Lululemon (LULU) all set to release results later this afternoon.

While U.S stocks advanced, Treasury yields fell on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by an expected 25-bps to 3.5%-3.75% view, though signaled it will likely hold off on further reductions, in a move that was largely anticipated by market participants. The surprise was that while the Fed’s “not so hawkish” cut was certainly better than what the market expected, they announced a very dovish addition of $40B in monthly Reserve Management Purchases of T-Bills (though no one calling it QE). After the 3^rd straight rate cut by the Fed yesterday, the median policymaker sees just one 25-bps cut in 2026, the same outlook as in September. The decision to cut by 25 basis points drew three dissents. Stock market momentum picked up late yesterday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank’s next move was unlikely to be a rate hike as it was not the base case in the new projections from the policymakers. The 10-year yield snapped a four-session streak of gains, its longest run of gains in five weeks.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 497.46 points, or 1.05%, to 48,057.75
• The Nasdaq Composite gained 77.67 points, or 0.33%, to 23,654.16
• The Russell 2000 Index advanced 33.36 points, or 1.32% to 2,559.61

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims…est. 1.947M
• 8:30 AM ET                  International Trade for September…est. (-$63.3B)
• 10:00 AM ET                Wholesale Inventory M/M for September…est. +0.1%
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 1:00 PM ET US Treasury to sell $25B in 30-year notes

• Earnings After the Close: AVGO COST LULU MITK NTSK NX

• Keybanc Second Annual Consumer Conference, 12/11-12/12 (virtual)
• Oppenheimer Winter industrials Summit, 12/10-12/11 (virtual)
• Stifel Medtech Madness West Coast Bus Tour, 12/8-12/11

• Oil retreated to the lowest since October, tracking wider losses in equities and other risk assets. Global benchmark Brent fell back below $62 a barrel, reversing an earlier advance of as much as 0.7%. Pressure from disappointing earnings offset the rising risk of escalating tensions between Washington and Caracas.
• The International Energy Agency lifted its 2026 global oil demand growth forecasts while trimming its supply growth predictions in its latest monthly oil market report on Thursday, anticipating a slightly narrower surplus next year. The IEA expects global oil supply to exceed demand by 3.84 million barrels per day, compared with a 4.09 million bpd surplus estimated in its November report.

• Vail Resorts (MTN) Q1 EPS loss widens to (-$5.20) vs. est. loss (-$5.17) as reported a loss of $186.8M, compared with a loss of $173.3M last year; Q1 revenue rose to $271.03M from $260.3M y/y but below consensus $277.5M; Q1 Pass product unit sales fell 2% while pass product sales in dollars rose 3%, driven by a 7% price increase; reiterated its previous fiscal year net income guidance of $201M-$276M vs. est. $246.4M.

• Norfolk Southern (NSC) and Union Pacific (UNP) both downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
• Nordson Inc. (NDSN) Q4 adj EPS $3.03 vs. est. $2.93 while revs rose 1% y/y to $751.8M were below consensus $765.4M; Q4 was $256M, or 34% of sales, an increase of 6% compared to prior year; sees FY26 adjusted EPS $10.80-$11.50 vs. est. $11.09 and sees FY26 revenue $2.83B-$2.95B vs. est. $2.92B.
• Planet Labs (PL) Q3 adj EPS $0.00 vs. est. loss (-$0.03); Q3 revs rose 33% y/y to $81M vs. est. $72.02M; Q3 gross margin was 57%, compared to 61% y/y; Q3 adjusted EBITDA was $5.6M of profit, compared to a ($0.2) million loss y/y; guides Q4 revenue $76M-$80M, vs. consensus $73.55M and raises FY26 revenue view to $297M-$301M from prior view $281M-$289M; FY non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be in the range of approximately 57% to 58%.
• Rayonier Advanced Materials (RYAM) announced that President and Chief Executive Officer De Lyle W. Bloomquist has informed the Board of Directors of his intention to retire by the time of the Company’s 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders, expected in May 2026.
• T1 Energy (TE) announces proposed concurrent public offerings of convertible senior notes due 2030 and common stock; announces $120 mln convertible notes offering and $140 mln common stock offering.

• Robinhood (HOOD) November metrics: Funded Customers at the end of November were 26.9 million (down approximately 130 thousand from the end of October 2025, up approximately 2.10 million year-over-year). Total Platform Assets at the end of November were $325 billion (down 5% from the end of October 2025, up 67% y/y. Net Deposits were $7.1 billion in November, or a 25% annualized growth rate relative to October 2025. Equity Notional Trading Volumes were $201.5 billion (down 37% from October 2025, up 37% y/y) and Options Contracts Traded were 193.2 million (down 28% from October 2025, up 24% y/y).
• Victory Capital (VCTR) November, average total AUM was $312.4 billion, average other assets was $2.8 billion, and average total client assets was $315.2 billion.

• Oracle Corp. (ORCL) shares fall; Q2 adj EPS $2.26 tops consensus $1.64; Q2 revs rose 14% y/y to $16.06B missing consensus $16.19B as Cloud revs rose 36% y/y to $8B vs. est. $8.04B; said Q2 Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) increased by $68 billion in Q2-up 15% sequentially to $523B, highlighted by new commitments from Meta, NVIDIA, and others; 2 Cloud revenue $8B, up 34% in USD, up 33% in cc/c
• Synopsys (SNPS) Q4 EPS $2.90 vs. est. $2.88 and revs $2.26B vs. est. $2.24B; sees FY26 non-GAAP EPS $14.32-$14.40, vs. consensus $14.05 and FY26 revenue $9.56B-$9.66B vs. est. $9.63B; sees FY capex about $300M and free cash flow about $1.9B.
• Amtech Systems (ASYS) authorizes share buyback of up to $5M of common stock; sees Q1 revenue $18M-$20M, vs. estimates $19.5M after reporting Q4 adj EPS $0.10 on revs $19.8M; said Advanced Packaging and assembly equipment we produce for AI infrastructure accounted for over 30% of our Thermal Processing Solutions (TPS) segment revenue in the quarter, up from about 25% in the prior quarter.
• Skillsoft (SKIL) shares fall; reported Q3 EPS loss (-$4.74) vs (-$2.86) loss last year and lower revs falling -6% y/y to $129M; cuts FY26 revenue view to $510M-$530M from $530M-$545M and backs FY26 adjusted EBITDA view $112M-$118M; announced review of strategic alternatives for Global Knowledge segment.
• Unity Software (U) was upgraded at both BTIG to Buy ($60 PT) and Piper to Overweight ($59 PT) saying their Vector Ad business has grown 15% quarter-over-quarter in the past two quarters.
• At least two fistfights broke out between PDD Holdings (PDD) employees and Chinese regulators at the e-commerce company’s Shanghai premises, according to people familiar with the matter, Bloomberg reports. The altercations involved PDD staff and officials from the State Administration for Market Regulation, who were investigating reports of fraudulent deliveries on PDD’s platform https://tinyurl.com/3s6p7ec4
• Pure Storage (PSTG) announces $400M share repurchase authorization.