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Why the Market Is Up Today
www.oneoption.com
Because it was down on Friday. This price action is all program generated. Don’t read anything into it.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – Why was the market down Friday? Why is the market up this morning? Turn on CNBC for the “answer”. They will explain every wiggle and jiggle with confidence. If they just told you that this was all program generated bullshit then viewers would figure out that they don’t need them and the TV station would lose ad revenue.
The upward market momentum is waning because buyers are not as excited as they were at lower levels. There is some profit taking so sellers do have more control than they did a few months ago. The market is addicted to easy money and the Fed has cut three times. They only plan to cut once next year. It would be mean of them to pull the punchbowl away during the holiday so they are going to buy $40B in T-Bills during the next month to keep the party going. Adding liquidity to the market is bullish and it is in response to dealer banks using the repo facility with frequency.
Asset Managers will try to mark portfolios up into year end. When the selling pressure is light, a small bid can support the market and even drive it higher.
Are longer-term yields rising? Yes. Have they been higher this year? Yes. Has the market rallied when yields were higher? Yes. Is this something we should keep an eye on? Yes.
Did VXX close on it’s high Friday? No. The market closed on its low and if the smart money was worried about uncertainty heading into year end, VXX would have closed near its high. I mentioned this in my video Sunday.
This morning we are going to get a nice bounce. Will it last? I have no idea. I am going to keep selling put premium for my swing trades and for day trading I am going to take it day-by-day. This week we should get one active day with sustained directional movement. Triple witching is Friday. If we see a day with nice, tight, orderly price action, institutions will leg out and roll positions. That will accentuate the move and it could lead to a trend day. The rest of the week will be light and choppy. There are a few economic releases, but the calendar is light.
We are going to open right in the middle of Friday’s range. It is support and resistance and this is likely to be an inside day.
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