Closing Recap

Wednesday, December 17, 2025

After the S&P 500, Russell 2000, Dow Transports and Dow Jones Industrial Average touched all-time highs last week following the FOMC interest rate cut and dovish commentary, it looked like Santa Claus was coming to town to end the year…but now it looks more like Krampus with 4 straight down days for the S&P 500. Technology stocks slid as concerns over rising debt and AI spending has pressured the Ai complex, hitting chip stocks (NVDA, AVGO), data center/infrastructure (NBIS, ETN, CRWV, WULF), cooling plays (VRT, MOD, NVT), nuclear/power names (OKLO, LEU, SMR), and big hyperscaler players AMZN, META, GOOGL, MSFT. Technology did most of the damage, led by Oracle (ORCL) after a report in the Financial Times said its largest data center partner, Blue Owl Capital, will not provide funding for a $10 billion deal to build its next facility in Saline Township, Michigan (intended to serve OpenAI), amid growing concerns about the cloud computing company’s rising debt and artificial intelligence spending, citing their source. Oracle shares fell and since their quarterly results report last week, shares have fallen more than 15% to $180 (and down from their $327.76 all-time high on September 10^th). Basically, the “AI is a bubble” crowd has returned for the time being. Next up for stock markets the November consumer price index (CPI) inflation data tomorrow morning.

While global stock indexes fell, commodity prices such as gold and silver advanced along with a bounce in oil. Silver hits another all-time high, now trading above $66/oz as precious metals continue to surge (silver started 2025 around $32/oz) and gold prices rise $41.60 or 0.95% to settle at $4,373.90 an ounce. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes was flat at 4.15%, while the 2-year note yield, which typically moves with interest rate expectations, rose 1 bps to 3.487%, from 3.479% late on Tuesday. In currencies, sterling fell after an unexpected drop in UK inflation all but guaranteed the Bank of England would cut interest rates later this week. The euro was barely higher against the dollar with the European Central Bank meeting Thursday (no rate change expected). Bitcoin was very volatile, opened down slightly, ripped over 2.3% above $90,000 before tumbling with broader stock markets, below $86,000. Oil prices rebounded with WTI crude +0.67 or 1.21% to settle at $55.94 per barrel.

• In Food & Beverages: GIS beat quarterly sales estimates with $4.86B above the $4.81B estimate on EPS $1.10 vs. est. $1.03, noting SNAP benefit lapsed temporarily for the first time ever during the federal shutdown, further squeezing household budgets; maintains annual sales and profit forecasts for the second time this year; Q2 North America retail net sales -13% Y/Y, international markets +5.5%. BF was downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup saying believe the stock’s recent outperformance relative to spirits peers is overdone.
• In Consumer Products: CHD was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jefferies and upgraded to Neutral at Citigroup on valuation and sees potential for Church & Dwight’s sales growth to pick up in 2026 as compares ease. PG was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Jefferies and raised tgt to $179 from $156 noting the consumer backdrop has been difficult but is stabilizing, and comps become easier, especially as retail destocking is lapped.
• In Restaurants: TXRH was upgraded from Equal Weight to Overweight at Wells Fargo with $195 tgt saying after recent underperformance (-11% since early Aug vs SPX +7%; via beef costs and negative EPS revisions), they see an entry point.

• In Home Improvement retail: Evercore ISI trimmed estimates by 1%-2% for HD, LOW, SHW, and FND as Home Improvement Leading Indicator (HILI) slips to -1% as the sector faces continued challenges. The forecast for HI growth is now pared down to 1% from 2% for 2026, reflecting a "marking to market" of softer data into Q4.

• In Education sector: Online education platform COUR said it will merge with UDMY in a deal that will value the combined company at $2.5 billion, the companies said; Udemy shareholders to receive 0.800 Coursera shares per share as anticipated cost synergies of $115 million within 24 months.
• In Casino & Gaming: MGM was downgraded from Overweight to Equal Weight saying despite valuation remaining cheap, as has become less enthused over MGM’s path to growth over the short and medium term. The firm downgraded BALY from Equal Weight to Underweight as thinks its latest project in NY, its largest project in history and one of the costliest global Gaming projects (including being the largest domestically), will fuel concerns around funding and cash burn, and will ultimately pressure cash flow in most scenarios.
• In Autos: TSLA falls nearly 5% at lows of $466.20 after hitting all-time highs $495.28 earlier this morning; KMX to report earnings tomorrow morning; Cox Automotive said December seasonally adjusted annual rate of new-vehicle sales expected to finish near 15.9M falling -3.5% Y/y but +12.7% M/m

• In Shipping: The Baltic Dry index, which factors in rates for Capesize, panamax and Supramax Shipping vessels, lost 83 points, or 3.8%, to 2,121 points, its lowest since November 13. The Capesize index fell 140 points, or about 3.7%, to 3,694 points, a near one-month low. The panamax index extended losses, falling 97 points, or 6.2%, to 1,480 points, its lowest level since June 26.
• In Airlines/Transports: Dow Transports rise early, back near all-time highs; Bloomberg reported that Spirit Aviation Holdings is in discussions with ULCC about a potential merger, citing people familiar with the matter. A deal could be announced as quickly as this month, although the discussions could also end without a deal, according to the Bloomberg report. The Teamsters union said on Wednesday it opposes the proposed merger between U.S. Freight railroads UNP and NSC saying they would not support any deal that fails to protect workers’ lives and livelihoods.
• In Equipment Rental: HRI and Ashtead Group (ASHTY) both upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight in Equipment rental space at Keybanc saying they are taking a more constructive approach, while reiterating its Overweight rating on URI with a $1,000 PT as thinks ongoing momentum in secular Mega project strength and the potential for inflecting local account activity spurred by lower interest rates support attractive risk/reward.

• In Consumer Lending: ALLY was upgraded from Equal Weight to Overweight at Wells Fargo saying the foundation is now set for Ally to get closer to long-term return targets. Looking towards ’26, sees further Auto credit improvement, NIM expansion and buybacks.
• In Business Services: Several changes at Morgan Stanley as FDS upgraded from Underweight to Equal Weight citing the sharp decline in shares in ’25 YTD (~-40%), as it thinks downside risks are now priced into the stock and expects improving capital markets to provide near-term upside as M&A and IPO activity recovers; CLVT was downgraded to Underweight, expecting the stock to underperform due to tight budgets, competition, and not much value from its strategic review; ROL upgraded to Overweight as see best-in-class operator with durable demand drivers, resilient end market, and structural tailwinds and SPGI was named top pick in Business Services for 2026; said prefer WSN in waste services.
• In Insurance: PGR combined ratio for November deteriorated 1.5 points to 87.1% from 85.6% y/y, while the net premiums written increased 11% in the month year on year to $6.2B; net income fell 5% year on year from $1 billion or $1.71 per share last year to $958 million or $1.63 per share; said earned $6.9 billion in net premiums in November, up 14%, driven by 11% y/y growth in personal lines and 5% in commercial lines.
• In REITs: UWMC will acquire TWO in an all-stock transaction for $1.3 billion in equity value. Under the terms of the agreement, TWO stockholders will receive a fixed exchange ratio of 2.3328 shares of UWMC Class A Common Stock for each share of TWO common stock. This represents an $11.94 per share value

• GPCR announced that it has initiated a first-in-human Phase 1 clinical study of ACCG-2671, the company’s lead oral small molecule amylin receptor agonist for the treatment of obesity.
• PFE says phase 3 EV-304 trial showed clinically meaningful & statistically significant improvements in event-free survival, & overall survival/meets primary endpoint
• SMMT upgraded from Underweight to Equal Weight at Barclays noting the company plans to submit its BLA for ivonescimab in 2L+ EGFR+ NSCLC based on the HARMONi study in Q4 2025.
• VERU said it has gained support from the U.S. FDA for testing its experimental obesity drug, Enobosarm, alongside popular GLP-1 weight-loss medicines; said plans to launch a new mid-stage trial early next year.
• VTGN shares tumbled after announced that a Phase 3 trial for fasedienol, an experimental therapy for social anxiety disorder, did not achieve its primary endpoint; noted that its PALISADE-3 public speaking challenge study didn’t reach the main goal.
• Medline (MDLN) priced its upsized initial public offering of 216,034,482 shares of its Class A common stock, at a public offering price of $29.00 per share (shares opened at $35).
• Secondary Offerings priced: KOD 6.96M share Spot Secondary, priced at $23.00; IMNM 18.63M share Spot Secondary, priced at $21.50; KYTX prices 13.3M shares at $7.50 in underwritten public offering

• In Steel sector: NUE guides Q4 EPS $1.65-$1.75, below consensus $2.06 saying they expect earnings in quarter to decrease across all 3 operating segments as compared to Q3 driven by seasonal effects and fewer shipping days in Nucor’s fiscal quarter. STLD also guided Q4 EPS below views at $1.65-$1.69 vs. consensus of $2.25 saying Q4 profitability from the company’s steel operations is expected to be meaningfully lower than sequential third quarter results due to lower average realized selling values and lower volumes related to both seasonal demand and planned maintenance outages at the company’s flat rolled steel mills.

• In Telecom Sector: SPIR shares tumble after reporting Q3 results that were well below figures on a y/y basis with Q3 EPS loss (-$0.61) vs. (-$0.50) loss last year and revs $12.67M below $26.57M same time last year (and est. $22M) – said Q3 net loss widened due to lower revenue and recognition timing issues; lowers FY25 revenue view to $70.5M-$72.5M from $85M-$95M. GOGO shares bounced early as Oakleigh Thorne, Executive Chair, bought 170,000 shares for $907,300 at $5.34/share on Dec 12 ’25 per filing.

• In Quantum Compute: Wedbush initiated IONQ Initiated Outperform and $60 PT, RGTI at Outperform and $35 PT, QBTS Outperform and $35 PT and QUBT at Neutral and $12 PT in Quantum space. Wedbush said Quantum Computing remains in its nascent stages, but the firm views it as a transformational technology with significant long-term potential which it believes will ultimately represent the next Frontier of Computing. Wedbush said it expects that by the end of the decade, Quantum Computing companies will represent a larger share of the total spend on compute from what is a very small base today.
• In Software: GWRE was upgraded to Buy at Davidson after roughly 20% pullback since earnings as thinks Guidewire should be considered as a core holding for investors looking for high-quality, vertical-market leaders in application software; FRSH is exploring acquisitions, including AI firms, backed by more than $800 million in cash, as it aims to boost revenue in the coming years, CEO Dennis Woodside told Reuters on Tuesday. The acquisition push comes as artificial intelligence adoption fuels dealmaking across the technology sector
• In EMS Sector: JBL shares jumped after better Q1 top and bottom line and raises FY26 core adjusted EPS view to $11.55 from $11.00 (above consensus $11.12) and boosts FY26 revenue view to $32.4B from $31.3B (above consensus $31.57B), while backs FY26 adjusted free cash flow view $1.3B.

• ASML shares fell after a Reuters report suggested China may be a lot closer to building a working EUV machine than previously thought as the gov’t presses ahead aggressively with plans to make cutting-edge AI chips.
• HUT shares jumped after saying it has signed a 15-year, $7.0 billion lease with Fluidstack for 245 megawatts (MW) of IT capacity at its River Bend data center campus in Louisiana.
• Reuters reported GOOGL is working on a new initiative to make its artificial intelligence chips better at running PyTorch, the world’s most widely used AI software framework, in a move aimed at weakening NVDA’s longstanding dominance of the AI computing market, according to people familiar with the matter. The effort is part of Google’s aggressive plan to make its Tensor Processing Units a viable alternative to Nvidia GPUs
• The Information reported that AMZN is in talks to invest in ChatGPT-maker OpenAI in a potential deal that could value the artificial intelligence firm at more than $500 billion/Amazon may invest about $10 billion in OpenAI, but the talks between the two firms are "very fluid" per the report.
• NBIS unveiled Nebius AI Cloud 3.1, which brings next-generation NVDA Blackwell Ultra compute and enhanced operational capabilities to the latest release of its full-stack AI cloud platform.