© Copyright 2025 eOption, a division of Regal Securities, Inc., Member
FINRA/
SIPC |
Important Disclosures
950 Milwaukee Ave., Ste. 102 | Glenview, IL 60025
The information on this web site is for discussion and information purposes only. All accounts accepted at the discretion of eOption which accepts customer orders only on an unsolicited basis, and does not make any recommendations regarding any security or securities product with the possible exception of orders executed by our full service bond desk. Nothing contained herein should be considered as an offer to buy or sell any security or securities product. Online trading has inherent risks due to loss of online services or delays from system performance, risk parameters, market conditions, and erroneous or unavailable market data.
FINRA BrokerCheck reports for Regal Securities and its investment professionals are available at www.finra.org/brokercheck.
Options Disclosure: Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to trading options, you must be approved for options trading and read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. A copy may also be requested via email at support@eoption.com or via mail to eOption, 950 Milwaukee Ave., Ste. 102, Glenview, IL 60025. Online trading has inherent risks due to loss of online services or delays from system performance, risk parameters, market conditions, and erroneous or unavailable market data.
eOption Commissions: Broker-assisted orders are an additional $15. Option strategies involve multiple purchases; therefore your transaction costs may be significant for option strategy trades. A commission rate of $2.00 for equities and $3.99 + $.10/contract for options, per execution, applies to orders entered and filled by eOption's Auto Trade Desk and does not apply to customers who enter their trades directly into the eOption platform and are not utilizing the Auto Trade desk.
Broker Comparison: The competitor rates from published websites were verified on 05/25/2023 and are believed to be accurate, but not guaranteed. Commissions are subject to change without notice. At some firms, commissions may not reflect broker-assisted fees, orders over 1,000 shares, penny stock trades, OTCBB, pink sheet stocks or foreign stock orders. Firms may offer reduced commissions if additional criteria are met.
Blog & Commentary: eOption is neither affiliated with, sponsored by, nor endorses commentary and the opinions expressed are solely their own. Content is provided for educational and informational purposes only and eOption cannot attest to its accuracy or completeness. No information provided has been endorsed by eOption.com and does not constitute a recommendation by eOption to buy or sell a particular investment. You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions, and eOption makes no investment recommendations and does not provide financial, tax or legal advice.
Moving Averages Are Catching Up
www.oneoption.com
As the market struggles to advance, the moving averages are inching closer and they will be tested more often.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – Yesterday the SPY touched the 50-day MA and it bounced off of it. This moving average is close to the all-time high and it will be tested with greater frequency. The market has lost its momentum into year end and the 100-day MA is within striking distance. The QQQ has a well defined lower high and it is struggling to recapture the 50-day MA.
Triple witching is Friday and institutions will be rolling positions and preparing for year end window dressing. AVWAPQ is the volume weighted average price during the last quarter and the market has not moved very far from it. This means that the gains since October have been negligible. A strong market will distance itself from it.
Yesterday the BLS reported that over the last two months 40K jobs have been lost. October was down over 100K and November added 60K jobs. The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% and that was higher than expected. For now, the market shrugged off the news. I don’t know if we can trust these numbers, but here is what I do know. The Fed said that they are only going to cut one more time next year. In previous months, weak employment was discounted because the Fed was more likely to ease. From this point forward, bad news is bad news.
Long-term yields have been rising. Countries with massive spending deficits have to keep issuing new debt. Greater supply and the same demand puts upward pressure on interest rates. There’s nothing the Fed can do about the long end of the yield curve. This is going to impact big ticket items like cars and homes.
Asset managers will try to mark up portfolios into year end so the bid should remain strong. They do not have enough fire power to push the market higher because there is selling pressure. These two forces are offsetting and that’s why the market is stuck in this trading range. Next week the market is open for half of the session on Wednesday and it is closed Thursday. When a holiday bisects the week like this, it kills the rest of the week.
I believe the market will stay between the 50-day MA and the all-time high the rest of the year.
I like selling short term put premium on strong stocks. That allows me to take advantage of time premium decay and to remain flexible. I’m just trying to generate income into year end.
Day trading is challenging. Focus on sector rotation and don’t overstay your welcome. We are going to see window dressing. These are short term moves and what’s hot today might be cold tomorrow. Much of the activity is program generated so our odds are low.
This trading range will end, just not now. Once we have the breakout, there will be trading opportunities. I will record a 2026 Forecast after Christmas and I will highlight the patterns to watch for.
Overseas markets were mixed, but up slightly. There is no tailwind. Triple witching is likely to produce volatility. If the market has sustained directional movement today, it is likely to continue. Institutions will roll positions and that will fuel the move. If there is no sustained movement with consecutive candles of a single color, we will chop back and forth Thursday and Friday. I would be more inclined to watch for that on the upside after confirming support at the 50-day MA yesterday.
Support is at the 50-day MA and resistance is the all-time high.
Content is provided by OneOption, LLC, which has no affiliation with Regal Securities, Inc. (“Regal”) This commentary is provided for information purposes only, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation by Regal to buy or sell securities or to adopt any investment strategy. Regal has not participated in the creation of the OneOption content and does not directly or indirectly endorse the content. Any reliance on this material is at the sole discretion of the reader.