Early Look

Thursday, December 18, 2025

After stocks finished lower on Wednesday (closing at the lows), US futures are pointing to a solid rebound, especially in technology after chip maker Micron (MU) shares jump over 11% overnight on and earnings beat and sharply higher guidance. Also, on tap today, a busy round of economic data with the November consumer price index (CPI) inflation data at 8:30 am et along with weekly jobless claims and the Philly Fed survey. In earnings, transport giant Fed-ex (FDX) and sneaker giant Nike (NKE) are expected to report earnings tonight. Stock markets closed on the lows on Wednesday as the S&P 500 index (SPX) posted its 4^th straight down day, sinking to three-week lows along with the tech-heavy Nasdaq as nagging worries about the artificial intelligence (AI) trade weighed on technology stocks. The main story in tech on Wednesday was Oracle, as shares dropped over -5% after a report said the cloud company’s largest data center partner Blue Owl Capital will not back a $10 billion deal for its next facility (ORCL refuted the story, but it did not matter). Worries about the broader technology sector taking on more debt to develop artificial intelligence have discouraged risk-taking lately. Semiconductor stocks, data centers, infrastructure, power/utility and cooling names all fell the most. In Asian markets, The Nikkei Index fell -510 points to 49,001, the Shanghai Index edged higher 6 points to 3,876, and the Hang Seng Index gained 29 points to 25,498. In Europe, the German DAX is higher by 64 points to 24,025, while the FTSE 100 is up 27 points to 9,802. Oil prices are steady, gold and silver prices dip and Bitcoin prices rebound after a volatile day Wednesday, +1.35% at $87,140.

• The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -228.29 points, or 0.47%, to 47,885.97
• The Nasdaq Composite tumbled -418.14 points, or 1.81%, to 22,693.32
• The Russell 2000 Index declined -27.01 points, or 1.07% to 2,492.29

• 8:30 AM ET                  Continuing Claims….est. 1.93M
• 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) Headline M/M for November…est. +0.3% (prior 0.3%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Consumer Price Index (CPI) Headline Y/Y for November…est. +3.1% (prior +3.0%)
• 8:30 AM ET CPI Core – Ex; Food & Energy M/M for November…est. +0.3% (prior +0.2%)
• 8:30 AM ET CPI Core – Ex; Food & Energy Y/Y for November…est. est. +3.0% (prior +3.0%)
• 8:30 AM ET                  Philly Fed Business Survey for December…est. 3.0 (prior -1.7)
• 10:30 AM ET                Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
• 11:00 AM ET                Cleveland Fed CPI for October…prior +0.2%
• 11:00 AM ET                Kansas City Fed Manufacturing for December…prior +18
• 4:00 PM ET                   Net Long-term TIC flows for October

• Earnings After the Close: AVO BB FDX KBH NKE SCHL

• The bull-bear spread in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly survey was +10.9% vs +14% last week. Bulls fall to 44.1% from 44.6%, Neutrals drop to 22.7% from 24.8%, Bears rise to 33.2% from 30.6%.
• The US has approved a package of arms sales to Taiwan worth up to $11 billion, a move that will likely draw a sharp response from Beijing.

• Instacart (CART) shares fall after news the U.S. Federal Trade Commission(FTC) is probing CART’s AI pricing tool Eversight, two sources familiar with the matter told Reuters on Wednesday. A study involving 437 shoppers viewing Instacart prices in four cities saw wildly different prices for the same items sourced at the same stores.
• Lennar Corp. (LEN) was downgraded to Underperform at RBC Capital and cut tgt to $95 from $106 following a weak Q4 and Q1 guide with the FY’26 guide and expectations around a recovery in margin later this year still presenting risk to ’26 earnings.
• Lululemon Athletica (LULU) shares rise 6% pre mkt after reports that activist investor Elliott Management has built a stake worth more than $1 billion in co and lining up a potential CEO candidate. Last week, co said CEO Calvin McDonald would step down in January after seven years in the role, without naming a successor.
• Lululemon (LULU) said it will enter 6 new markets in 2026 via franchise partners, its biggest one-year international push. It’s launching Greece, Austria, Poland, Hungary, and Romania with Arion Retail Group, and India with Tata CLiQ.
• MillerKnoll Inc. (MLKN) Q2 adj EPS $0.43 vs est $0.41, adj Outperform mgn 5.9% on sales $955.2Mm vs est $943.13Mm, gr mgn 39/0%; guides Q3 revs $923-963Mm vs est $915.87Mm, gross mgn 37.9-38.9% and adj EPS $0.42-0.48 vs est $0.41; expect incremental tariff costs in Q3 to be offset by previously announced pricing.

• Venezuela’s main oil storage and Tankers at its terminals are quickly filling up and may be at maximum capacity in about 10 days – Bloomberg news.
• BP plc (BP) has tapped Woodside Energy’s (WDS.AX) Meg O’Neill as its next CEO, its first external hire for the post in over a century and the first woman to lead a top five oil major as the firm pivots back to fossil fuels.
• Delta Air Lines (DAL) said President Glen Hauenstein intends to retire, effective Feb. 28; Joe Esposito named Chief Commercial Officer.
• Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC) Q1 adj EPS $0.36 vs est $0.37, adj EBITDA $32.4Mm vs est $32.7Mm, adj EBITDA mgn 22.4% on revs $144.2Mm vs est $145.9Mm; guides FY revs $635-655Mm vs est $641.8Mm and adj EBITDA $158-168Mm vs est $160.95Mm and adj EPS $1.85-2.00 vs est $1.92.
• Parsons (PSN) announced that the company was awarded a seat on the U.S. Air Force Comprehensive Construction & Engineering Multiple Award Task Order Contract, or MATOC. Managed by the Air Force Civil Engineering Center, this has a $15B ceiling value contract.
• Sable Offshore Corp. (SOC) jumps 41% overnight after the company said the US Department of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration determined the pipeline connecting the Santa Ynez Unit to Pentland Station terminal in California constitutes an interstate pipeline.
• Worthington Steel (WS) Q2 adj EPS $0.38 vs. est. $0.39 on revs $871.9M vs. est. $801.8M; Q2 Operating income of $21.7M compared to $18.9M; Q2 Gross margin in increased by $13.2M y/y to $93.2M, driven primarily by higher direct volumes and higher direct spreads, partially offset by lower toll margins.

• Franklin Resources, Inc. (BEN) raised its quarterly dividend to $0.33 from $0.32 and said its Board has authorized to repurchase, from time to time, up to an additional 20.8 million shares of its common stock in either open market or private transactions, for a total of up to 40.0 million shares available for repurchase.
• CVB Financial Corp. (CVBF) and Heritage Commerce Corp (HTBK) entered into a definitive merger agreement where Heritage will merge with and into Citizens in an all-stock transaction valued at approximately $811 million, or $13.00 per HTBK share, based on CVBF’s closing stock price on December 16, 2025.
• Howard Hughes Holdings (HHH) will buy privately held specialty insurance firm Vantage Group Holdings for about $2.1 billion, the companies said. The real estate company will fund the deal with cash and up to a $1 billion loan from Bill Ackman-backed hedge fund, Pershing Square, which would be in the form of preferred shares in Vantage. Howard Hughes said it could buy the stock back from Perishing Square over seven years at a premium tied to book value.
• PayPal (PYPL) downgraded to Underweight from Equal weight at Morgan Stanley and cuts tgt to $51 from $74 saying improvements to Branded Checkout integrations will be slow and complex, and we expect sluggish total payments volume dollar growth through 2028 due to share loss, take rate degradation, and a lack of Venmo monetization, while the agentic narrative will be an overhang.

• Insmed (INSM) shares declined after saying its Phase 2b BiRCh study of brensocatib in patients with chronic rhinosinusitis without nasal polyps failed to meet primary or secondary efficacy goals, prompting immediate discontinuation of the CRSsNP program.

• Accenture (ACN) Q1 adjusted EPS $3.94, tops consensus $3.72 on better revs $18.7B vs. est. $18.53B, posting $21 billion in new bookings, including 33 clients with quarterly bookings greater than $100M; delivered revenue growth of 5% in local currency; backs FY26 adjusted EPS view $13.52-$13.90, consensus $13.77.
• OpenAI has held preliminary discussions with some investors about raising at a valuation of around $750B, according to The Information, citing three people with knowledge of the discussions. It could raise tens of billions of dollars, and as much as $100B, according to two of the people. Talks are early and nothing has been finalized.
• Trump Media & Technology (DJT) and TAE Technologies have agreed to combine in an all-stock transaction valued at more than $6 billion, the companies said on Thursday.