Closing Recap

Monday, December 22, 2025

U.S. stock futures advanced overnight, extended gains after the open, and held near highs all afternoon in a low volume/tight trading range all day on this holiday shortened Christmas trading week (NYSE closes at 1:00 pm et on Wednesday and closed all day on Thursday). Overall, a light data week ahead led by Q3 GDP and Consumer Confidence tomorrow, and Jobless Claims Wednesday and while we have a full equity session Friday, many global markets will be closed for Boxing Day including Canada, the UK, much of Europe and Australia. Smallcaps outperformed today as the Russell 2000 was up more than 1% but nearly all eleven S&P closed higher with notable gains in XLF Financials (52-week highs for C, BCS, COF, DB, HSBC, KEY, LNC, RY, USB, TFC), XLB Materials (AA, FCX, ALB, SQM, HL, PAAS, NEM, AG, EGO), and a rebound in XLE Energy, while Staples lagged. The CBOE Volatility index (VIX) tumbled -5.57% just above the 14 level, near 52-week lows.

A combination of a weaker US dollar along with US/Venezuela tensions heating up, and copper prices continuing to march higher are helping commodity prices in general with oil rising more than 2% and gold/silver hitting all-time highs. Dow Transports new all-time highs this afternoon to 17,675 as airlines, rails, truckers and freight pushing higher into year-end. There were at least four M&A headlines/stories this afternoon including: PSKY amends its offer for WBD in battle with NFLX; CTAS announces bid to acquire UNF in uniform industry; CWAN rises after agreed to an $8.4B take-private deal by an investor group led by Permira and Warburg Pincus, and in financials, Trian and General Catalyst to take JHG private in $7.4B deal as per CNBC.

Fed commentary mixed/edging slightly hawkish today as ultra dove Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran said this morning the US central bank risks sparking a recession unless it continues lowering interest rates next year (recall he was the lone Fed voted calling for a 50bps cut last meeting). However, on Friday NY Fed President Williams said he sees no urgency to cut rates given recent data, and then Hammack (who is a voter in ’26) said in a WSJ podcast this weekend she doesn’t see a need to cut rates “for several months”.

A busy morning of economic data coming up on Tuesday morning with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Q3 – Advance est. +3.3% (prior +3.8%) along with spending and deflator data and PCE Prices for Q3 – Advance est. +2.8% (prior +2.1%) and Core PCE Prices for Q3 est. +2.9% (prior +2.6%) all at 8:30 am et. Then at 9:15 AM ET Industrial Production M/M for October and Capacity Utilization for October and lastly at 10:00 am, Consumer Confidence for December with est. 91.0 (prior 88.7), New Home Sales M/M for October and Richmond Fed data.

Interesting stats: the Santa Claus” rally (last 5 trading days of the year plus the first two of next), per the Stock Almanac the S&P is up 76% of the time over that stretch with an average gain of 1.3%. @RyanDetrick noted on “X”, “The official Santa Claus Rally period starts on Wednesday. Santa hasn’t come for two years in a row, but he’s never missed three years in a row. And there is no 7-day period that is more likely to be higher than these 7 days (77.3%).”

• WTI crude oil futures rose $1.49 or 2.64% to settle at $58.01 per barrel while Brent crude prices rose $1.60 or 2.65% to settle at $62.07 per barrel, getting a boost today after the U.S. intercepted an oil tanker in international waters off the coast of Venezuela and tensions in Russia’s war against Ukraine remained high, with both developments raising fears of supply disruption.

• The US Treasury sold $69B in 2-year notes at yield of 3.499%, vs. 3.496% when issued prior as the bid-to-cover ratio 2.54, and primary dealers take 12.74% of U.S. 2-year notes sale, direct 34.05% and indirect 53.21%. Sterling hit a fresh 3-month high vs. the greenback.

• COTY named PG veteran Markus Strobel as chairman and interim CEO, handing him the reins as the company battles pressure on its mass-market business and a steep share-price slide, falling over 50% this year
• OLLI was upgraded from Hold to Buy at Loop Capital and raised tgt to $135 following its recent store tour led by Managing Director, Corporate Communication & Business Development John Rouleau and district management.

• In Casinos (WYNN, LVS, MGM, MLCO): In Macau gaming, Weekly GGR up 8% WoW with normalized VIP win rate as Macquarie said their data provider estimates 17-22% GGR growth for December. Macau’s packed event calendar in December and 1Q26 should support strong visitation, which should aid retail recovery. Premium segment strength drove 2025 GGR; Galaxy and Sands are poised to lead with luxury facilities and event-driven experiential offerings.
• Ride Sharing: UBER, LYFT partner with BIDU for robotaxis in U.K., Reuters reports Uber and Lyft are partnering with Baidu to test out driverless taxis in the U.K. in 2026, Reuters reports. Uber and Lyft have abandoned in-house development of autonomous vehicles and will instead rely on partnerships to accelerate the adoption of such.
• In Autos: Bloomberg reported there have been at least 15 U.S. deaths in crashes where TSLA door functionality may have impeded escape or rescue. NHTSA opened a formal probe in September into whether door issues can block emergency access. Porsche (POAHY) said it plans to shut down its own Charging network of around 200 stations from March 1, Chinese news agency Yicai reported, citing the company

• Wind Projects: The Trump administration suspended leases for five large-scale under-construction offshore wind projects over National Security concerns, the Department of the Interior said. The department said the move was made after the Pentagon raised concerns that the movement of Turbine blades and the highly reflective Towers cause radar interference. The pause will affect the following projects: GEV’s Vineyard Wind 1, Danish energy firm Orsted’s Revolution Wind and Sunrise Wind, Dominion (D) Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind–Commercial, and EQNR Empire Wind 1 projects.
• In Multi Industry: HON shares slipped early  after saying it expects to record charge of about $470M in Q4 related to potential settlement of Flexjet-linked litigation; also updates FY outlook as it plans to report its Advanced Materials unit as discontinued operations starting in the fourth quarter of 2025 as sees EPS profit $9.70-$9.80/share, down from its prior outlook of $10.60-$10.70.
• In Aerospace & Defense: RKLB announced an ~$806M award from the Space Development Agency (SDA) to design, manufacture, and support the operations of 18 satellites for the Tracking Layer Tranche 3 (TRKT3) program under the Proliferated Warfighter Space Architecture. BKSY initiated Buy at Jefferies saying the satellite intelligence co appears set to grow its top line at roughly 25% per year on a strong international customer base and the debut of its Gen-3 satellites. SWK shares rose after selling Consolidated Aerospace manufacturing business to HWM for $1.8B.
• In Energy/Solar stock news: TE shares jumped after signing a three-year deal to supply Treaty Oak Clean Energy with 900 megawatts of solar modules from its planned G2_Austin solar cell facility. FSLR shares jumped after GOOGL said it would acquire its customer Intersect, which provides data center and energy infrastructure solutions, for $4.75B in cash, plus the assumption of debt. Google already owns a minority stake in Intersect from a previously announced funding round. News awas also viewed positively for likes of NXT, PRIM, and PWR that are involved with renewables.

• In Digital Assets: Citigroup provides 2026 outlook, incorporating Citi Strategists’ downward revision to Bitcoin and Ethereum forecasts and intra-quarter industry data. Citi says despite recent Token volatility, remains bullish on digital assets stocks on its belief that crucial legislative reform (namely RFIA) will serve as an important catalyst in (i) UNLOCKING TradFi participation, financing, liquidity, partnerships, and product innovation and (ii) CROSSING OVER Blockchain utility into real world use cases.  CRCL is Citi’s top pick, followed by BLSH and COIN Citi remains positive on RIOT and MSTR, though expect heightened near-term volatility Associated with MSTR’s debate with index providers.
• Also, in crypto: Bloomberg reported JPM is considering offering Cryptocurrency trading to its institutional clients, as large banks around the world deepen their involvement in the asset class. The Wall Street giant is assessing what products and services its markets division could offer to expand its footprint in Cryptocurrencies. Crypto miners saw notable gains today led by HUT, CLSK, and IREN early.
• In REITs: GEO BI Inc unit wins U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) contract for skip tracing services as the two-year contract, effective December 16, 2025, would bring in $121M in revenue.

• AZN and Daiichi Sankyo’s ENHERTU(R) has been granted Breakthrough Therapy Designation (BTD) in the US for adult patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer with residual invasive disease in the breast and/or axillary lymph nodes after neoadjuvant treatment and high risk of disease recurrence.
• BDX has been sued by rival TELA for allegedly thwarting competition in the U.S. market for Surgical hernia mesh and causing patients and Care providers to pay higher prices. The lawsuit claims Becton leveraged its dominance in two key product categories — permanent hernia mesh and resorbable hernia mesh — to exclude Tela Bio’s OviTex product.
• BMRN said it had discontinued development of BMN-439, an oral therapeutic for Alpha-1 antitrypsin deficiency-associated liver disease. It did not provide a reason for the decision.
• CYTK said the FDA Myqorzo, for adults with symptomatic obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy to improve functional capacity and symptoms, ahead of their highly anticipated Dec 26th 2025 PDUFA.
• RHHBY’s Genetech unit said the FDA approved Lunsumio VELO, its treatment for adult patients with relapsed or refractory follicular lymphoma, following two or more lines of systemic therapy, the company said Monday.

• Industrial metals and steel producers also outperformed with AA hitting 3-year highs in aluminum and FCX 52-week highs as copper prices soar; steel names STLD, NUE also outperformed as XLB Materials sector jumped.

• NFLX secures $25B of new financing for its WBD deal: A $5B unsecured revolver plus $20B of delayed draw term loans ($10B 2 year + $10B 3 year).
• AMZN, GOOGL, DASH, CVNA, RDDT, EBAY, VRSN, W, WIX, GDDY top picks for 2026 North America Internet at Citigroup saying: On AMZN, Citi notes accelerating AWS growth led by Ai demand, eCommerce wallet share gains, and greater margin expansion and on GOOGL its industry leading Ai Tools should translate into continued Search revenue growth with Cloud growth accelerating given demand for its TPUs, leading FMs, and infrastructure capacity. Citi is also raising its AWS and Google Cloud projections. On eBay, valuation remains attractive as collectibles, eBay Live, and its agentic suite can deliver improving fundamentals, while on VRSN, continued fundamental improvements present a strong opportunity.

• ORCL positive mention at Wells Fargo saying recent Ai-related pessimism has left Oracle undervalued and reiterates its overweight rating. The bank’s $280 price target implies 46% upside after the stock fell 42% from its September peak. Improving sentiment around Oracle’s TikTok US deal and Ai growth potential supports the bullish view."
• Optical equipment sector seeing continued strength, a beneficiary of higher memory prices that has boosted names like MU, SNDK, with shares of AAOI surging over 20% today (also high short interest in name), along with continued gains in names like LITE, COHR as well. Recall on 12/11, Needham had noted AAOI announced it received its first volume order for its 800G transceivers from a major hyperscale customer, assumed to be Amazon (AMZN) as per Needham that day

• MU added to last week gains post earnings, but other memory/HDD names SNDK, STX, WDC underperformed (note the names are the biggest winners in the S&P 500 this year).