Daily Commentary: April 01, 2024

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Market Poised To Grind Higher

Posted by Pete Stolcers on April 01

The market rallied after a hawkish FOMC statement and it has digested those gains. It is poised to move higher in the next two weeks.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – Asset Managers have been waiting for a dip and they have not gotten one. Their last hope was a bearish reaction to a hawkish Fed statement. The comments indicated “higher for longer”, but the market rallied after the release. I believe this is because Asset Managers are still fairly aggressive. When they did not get the dip, they did not want to miss the next leg higher.

Last week the market “flatlined” into a long holiday weekend. The news was light and it did not have a catalyst. That will change this week. ISM Manufacturing will be released today after the open. We have JOLTS job openings tomorrow and ADP and ISM Services Wednesday. Friday we will get the Unemployment Report. The economic releases have been solid and job growth is strong. The Fed raised their economic growth projections for the year. Initial jobless claims have been low for the last month and there is no reason to believe that the numbers will be weak.

In a dozen days, Q1 earnings season will start. The market typically has a strong bid into those releases. Asset Managers are buying ahead of mega cap tech earnings and AI could spark some excitement.

Last week we had a little end-of-the-quarter “window dressing” and some rebalancing. The market has gone up in Q1 so there was some selling of equities and buying of bonds. We dipped a little lower last week and the bid has been confirmed. There were no long red candles and the drift lower was “wimpy”.

I am not looking for a run away rally in the next two weeks, but we should make a new high and continue to grind higher. The market momentum is starting to slow. THIS IS NOT BEARISH! It simply means that we can’t be as aggressively long as we were from November – February.

Watch for market support this week. If we were going to get a dip, it would have happened right after the FOMC and it would have continued last week. We didn’t get that. I see that as a sign that we are going higher soon.

Mondays after a holiday weekend tend to be dull so don’t expect any fireworks today. The SPY rallied overnight and it has given back most of those gains. Europe was pretty flat, but Asia had nice gains overnight. China’s manufacturing (50.8) and services (53.0) PMIs were in expansion territory so that is helping.

Look for a day this week where the market makes a new all-time high and it continues to grind higher. I don’t believe it will be today. That will be a trend day and we are likely to see follow through the next day. That will be your best short term trading opportunity.

Support is at $519.50 and resistance is at the all-time high.

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