Daily Commentary: April 01, 2025

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Big News Pending

Posted by Pete Stolcers on April 01
www.oneoption.com

The market is likely to wait for the overnight news so we can expect a dull choppy day.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – Yesterday the market gapped down to horizontal support from two weeks ago and it bounced. We did not want to chase that early drop and it presented an opportunity to take gains on shorts. The market traveled too far too fast in the last few days and it snapped back. I believe we are going to stay in the middle of Friday’s range today and the market will prepare for economic releases and the tariff plan.

Official PMIs were released and global markets were generally higher. The results were in line with expectations (soft) and foreign markets rallied in response to our bounce Monday. ISM Manufacturing will be released after the open today.

ADP will reveal private sector job growth tomorrow and President Trump will reveal his tariff plan. Some fear that it will spark trade wars while others feel that it won’t be as bad as expected. We don’t guess which outcome we will get, we wait for the reaction.

Swing traders should search for weak stocks that were not able to bounce with the market yesterday. That is a sign of heavy selling pressure. Get your bearish lists ready and set alerts on those stocks. The market is bearish and we are waiting for a good entry point so that we can add.

Day traders should expect a dull session. We’ve had big moves both ways so we know buyers and sellers are engaged. I am expecting a wimpy first move of the day that features light volume and mixed overlapping candles. When that move runs out of steam, we will have a great day trading window. If the move is lower, you let it unfold and you look for stocks with relative strength. As the market continues to drift lower, you are monitoring the stocks and you want to see them tread water or move higher. When the market finds support, buy them. You have to use more caution trading from the long side because the trend is down. You do NOT want to carry longs overnight. That makes it more difficult to trade from the long side. Trade smaller size and be patient. Don’t be early or you could get trapped. You would use the same logic if the first move is a wimpy bounce. Obviously, we would prefer this because when that move runs out of steam we are joining the longer term trend. If we get trapped, we have more cushion to hold overnight since that favors the trend.

I am not expecting stacked overlapping candles of a single color on heavy volume today. That would be a sign that one side has control and then you would not fade that first move.

Support is the low from Friday and resistance is the high from Monday.

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