Daily Commentary: April 02, 2024

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Horrible News – The Economy Is Strong

Posted by Pete Stolcers on April 02

The S&P 500 is pulling back this morning. Be patient and wait for support. The farther it falls, the better our entry price.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – Wow, the market does go down. After a powerful five month rally we forgot what red candles look like. Here’s what is happening and how we should prepare ourselves.

Bonds (TLT) are breaching major horizontal support. That is going to put pressure on the market. Institutions have been VERY wrong on interest rates. A year ago they were pricing in a quarter point rate cut in September of 2023. Regardless of the Fed’s hawkish stance, they continued to price that in until August. Then there was a market correction as bonds tanked. The Fed did not cut rates, they raised them! In November, the Fed paused. Instantly, a quarter point rate cut got priced into March. Regardless of the Fed’s insistence that they will not cut rates until July, institutions continued to price in a rate cut in June. Now they are having to “unwind” those positions for a loss. Are we going to see a market drop similar to the one we saw from August – October? No, I don’t believe so. Back then the bonds were extremely mispriced. We saw a rate hike, not a rate cut. This time around, the Fed has paused. The potential timeline for a rate cut is being pushed back. Does a quarter point rate cut really matter? I don’t believe so.

The economy is strong. We’ve seen that in the numbers and the Fed raised its growth projections for the year. ISM manufacturing was strong yesterday and it was in expansion territory. China’s PMIs were in expansion territory for March. Initial jobless claims have been low and that bodes well for the employment numbers this week. When people have jobs, credit risk is low and they spend money. That is good for corporate profits. Any pullback on the notion that “good news is bad news” is a buying opportunity. We have been waiting for a dip and now we are getting one. This is not a time to get “cold feet”.

The only concern I have is a decline in economic activity. There is no indication of that so I am in “buy the dip” mode. Some of the biggest market rallies have come during periods of high interest rates.

The market tried to get through resistance at $525 twice. Those attempts were less than a week apart so I don’t consider this a “double top”. It is merely a resistance level. If you look at where the market will open today, it is right at the level it was at before the FOMC statement. That move was all fluff. The reaction should have been negative in the first place and that was where we expected to see a dip.

Bond prices are adjusting and they need to. All of the other pieces are in place and earnings season will kick off in a little more than a week. That typically attracts buyers. Shorts will not be aggressive into mega cap tech earnings.

The SPY is testing AVWAPQ this morning. Let’s see what unfolds. I will be watching for any signs of strength. If I don’t see any, I will keep my wallet in my pocket and I will keep setting alerts that will trigger when strong stocks bounce.

Support is at AVWPAQ and resistance is at the low from Monday.

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