Daily Commentary: April 04, 2024

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Be Ready To Buy

Posted by Pete Stolcers on April 04

The price action tells me we are going up. The jobs report could be the catalyst.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – Even after hawkish “Fed speak”, bonds are moving higher this morning. That will take a little pressure of of equities today.

The market has been digesting gains near the all-time high. This is a compression and it is bullish. Profit taking (supply) has been met by buyers (demand) and in time the buyers will exhaust the supply and the market will lift off. We have not had a catalyst for that next leg higher and we are likely to get one tomorrow.

Job growth remains strong and we know that from the initial claims numbers the last four weeks. ADP was strong and JOLTS was in line. We should see 200K jobs added in March and an hourly wage component around .3%. Jobs are good regardless of what you might read. We want the Fed sidelined. That is a sign that economic growth is robust. There is no need for them to cut rates. A strong economy is good for spending and it is good for credit. It is also good for profits.

ISM services was a little light yesterday, but it is still in expansion territory.

Banks will kick off earnings season in a week. A strong economy and full employment is good for profits. “Higher for longer” is also good for bank profits. Financial stocks have rallied hard. I’m not looking for big gains after the earnings reports, but I am not looking for much (if any) retracement. These stocks will hold gains and then the market will prepare for mega cap tech earnings. This typically attracts buyers.

I’ve been telling you to keep your powder dry and to be ready to buy. You needed to wait through this compression and you needed to ignore all of the negative headlines that suggested that the market is going to roll over. Shorts will soon be taught a lesson. They will fuel the breakout when they cover.

I suggest selling some OTM bullish put spreads today. We have been highlighting them in the chat room. When we get the breakout, we will have a couple of nice weeks to trade the breakout and then… YOU HAVE TO TAKE #$%^ PROFITS AND GO TO THE SIDELINES. Some of you will keep trading like the S&P 500 is going to 7000 and you will regret that. Compress, rally, compress, rally. Buy, take profits, buy, take profits. You have to get in sync with these moves and you have to throttle your trading. This is the pattern and the rally is maturing.

This is a nice breakout this morning. Let’s wait for the bid check. If the retracement is light, it will tell us that buyers are anxious. Hawkish Fed comments did not discourage them. We’ve seen some selling pressure the last week so waiting 45 minutes should not matter. There was not any news to justify lift off right out of the gate ahead of a big number.

Support is the high from Wednesday and resistance is the all-time high.

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