Daily Commentary: April 09, 2024

Auto Post1Option Commentary

Market Waiting For CPI

Posted by Pete Stolcers on April 09

Tomorrow we will get the next inflation reading. The Fed cited concerns over persistent inflation and this is pushing back the time line for any potential rate cut.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – The trading range from last Thursday was very wide and the market is trading right in the middle of it. We are likely to see dull trading today ahead of the CPI.

A warning shot was fired last Thursday. Was this a program related drop that gained traction on a gap reversal or was this something more? We will know the answer to that question in the next few weeks. What we know now is that we should tame our bullish bias. If the market is able to breakout to a new all-time high during earnings season, the upside will be limited.

The selling pressure last Thursday was not just program related. The volume was extremely heavy and that is a sign of “risk off”. The range was 200% of the 20-day ATR and if buyers were aggressive, we would not have seen a drop of that magnitude. They would have seen that pullback as a buying opportunity and the damage would not have been so severe. Bull markets die hard so there will be attempts to get back to the all-time high and to push through it. If those attempts are thwarted, it will confirm solid resistance and the odds of a meaningful pullback will increase.

Earnings season will kick off this Friday. Banks will dominate the scene. The earnings will be solid and the bad loan write downs will be minimal because people have jobs. Financials have rallied hard so good news is priced in. Those stocks will tread water so the earnings will be market neutral. Then we will go into a holding pattern ahead of mega cap tech stocks. It is almost impossible to quantify the potential for AI, but the big 7 tech companies are all heavily invested in it. Since this is the “next big thing”, valuations can be stretched and it won’t matter if the earnings are light. I don’t believe they will be light, I am just saying that you can’t simply apply quant models to the current valuations. The “potential” will keep these stocks at current levels. As far as the remaining earnings releases, we can expect generally good results based on spending and economic growth.

If the market struggles to make a new high in April, it will confirm resistance. Then I believe we could see a sideways trading range for most of the summer.

Look for a dull trading session ahead of the CPI similar to what we saw yesterday. The range from yesterday will serve as the primary support and resistance levels and the range from Thursday will serve as secondary support and resistance levels. The market is hovering right at AVWAPQ.

Live Trading

Open an Account

Paper Trading