Daily Commentary: April 09, 2025

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Here’s What the Market Will Do

Posted by Pete Stolcers on April 09
www.oneoption.com

It will go up and down violently.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – During times of uncertainty you have to trim your size and your trade count. The market is news driven and the news is fluid. One minute it could be good and the next minute it could be bad. The S&P 500 had a 350 point range yesterday and option implied volatilities spiked. This morning US Treasuries are plunging and they could test the low of the year. The 3-year bond auction did not go well yesterday and 25% of our debt is financed by foreign sovereigns. Given the tariffs, they are not anxious to buy our debt and yields are rising. That will weigh on consumption.

China and the US are headed for a trade battle. China exports five times as much to the US as we export to them so the tariff impact to them will be much greater. Their economy has been in a steady decline for the last couple of years and there are signs of a credit crisis.

Tomorrow we have the CPI. Who cares? It’s funny how the focus changes. A month ago, the CPI would have dominated the headlines for the week. Now the focus is on tariffs.

Swing traders should sell far OTM naked puts on strong stocks to take advantage of extreme option IVs. Put half of the strike price in reserve and plan to take assignment. If you pick stocks with relative strength on a D1 basis, your odds of taking assignment will be low. Don’t go out more than two weeks in time and do not use this strategy if the stock is announcing earnings before the options expire. If you don’t trade options, stay sidelined.

Day traders need to be very selective. Our best set-up is a wimpy opening bounce that quickly runs out of steam. That will set up a shorting opportunity and you will be joining the down trend. I doubt that we will get any meaningful bounce until the downside is tested and until buyers show a relentless appetite for stocks. That would come in the form of six or more consecutive long green candles on heavy volume. It is going to take BIG news to reverse this selling pressure and it will have to be tariff related. There are pockets of opportunity, but you have to be very nimble. If a big gain presents itself… take it.

Support is at SPY $480 and resistance is at $525. This is a massive range and we should expect wild swings.

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