Daily Commentary: April 11, 2024

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Market Rally Has Stalled

Posted by Pete Stolcers on April 11

We’ve seen selling pressure the last week, but it’s way to early to be bearish.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – The market staged an impressive rally from November through March and it gained more than 20% during that time. Buyers were aggressive and there weren’t any dips. In the last week we have seen some selling pressure, but this is no time to be bearish.

It’s foolish to expect the market to rally another 10% after a move of this magnitude. This is when we are likely to trade in a horizontal range. It will take time for profits to catch up to current valuations.

I expect to see a stubborn probe for support in the next week. Mixed overlapping candles will be a sign that buyers are still interested. Once support is established, I expect to see a bounce into mega cap tech earnings and AI will keep buyers engaged.

What’s changed? The Fed is hawkish just as they have been. Economic conditions remain strong and people have jobs. They are spending and credit risk is low. Is .4% CPI “hot”? This morning the PPI fell by .2%.

Banks will start reporting earnings tomorrow. I am expecting good results and that is price in. There won’t be much of a reaction.

There’s no question that we have started to see some selling pressure. That does not make me bearish, it makes me neutral. I was bullish and now that I have seen signs of selling, I am adjusting. Bull markets don’t just roll over and play dead. It would take a macro shift in the backdrop for this to happen and we have not had any indication of that.

The futures were down overnight and they rallied back after the PPI. I would expect choppy conditions today. Buyers and sellers are paired off. If we can stack some candles in one direction, we could get nice fluid movement in the range today. Watch for that move to stall and then a move in the other direction. This is our best case scenario for day trading. Our worst case scenario is a tight range and mixed candles. We will know which one we get in the first hour of trading.

The low from last Thursday is support and AVWAPQ is resistance.

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