Daily Commentary: April 12, 2024

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Buyers and Sellers Are Battling

Posted by Pete Stolcers on April 12

We have signs of selling pressure and we know buyers are interested. Stay cautious and let’s see who prevails.

PREOPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – This week we have seen buying and selling. The market dropped on a “hotter” than expected CPI and it bounced on a “lighter” than expected PPI. Which move was correct? Both!

The market move that we’ve seen in the last week is not about inflation. That is only one ingredient in the “market recipe”. There are many influences that are in play and we don’t need to dissect them. All we need to know is that for the first time in months we are seeing selling pressure. The relentless rally since November tells us that buyers have been aggressive. Flashing yellow lights mean caution. They don’t me sell and they don’t mean buy.

If you are a day trader, I told you Monday that you are in luck. We are going to see nice intraday ranges and good movement. How did I know that? The move from a week ago Thursday told me that we would see increased volatility. The drop was substantial and it was not a temporary dip caused by sell programs. The heavy volume, stacked red candle and the extremely large range were “tells”.

Earnings season kicked off this morning. JPM is down considerably, but WFC, C and STT are holding up well. Banks will dominate the early scene. The charts are strong, but the earnings should be good. I believe in general, the international banks will fare well and the reaction will be muted. The regional banks could be mixed and those with commercial property exposure could be weak.

Yesterday we tested the low from last Thursday. That was a support level and in the spirit of both sides battling it out, that was an opportunity to buy once support was confirmed. We got a nice bounce and AVWAPQ has been providing resistance. If you thought this was a sign that the market was “off to the races” and you held longs overnight, you are going to regret that this morning. These conditions are good for day trading and they are poor for swing trading. When we get a move to an extreme and it stalls, we need to expect that the other side is going to flex its muscles. Make no mistake, this is a battle. When the dust settles, we will know which side to favor and earnings season will influence the direction.

Stay flexible. There will be some really nice runs in both directions. The searches on both sides have great candidates. Pick a few from each side. 1OP is excellent when we have fluid movement and decent volume. It is your guide. Let the cycles play out. When you get one that is benign, look for a move in the other direction and favor the next cross.

Support is at the low of the week and resistance is at AVWAPQ.

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