Daily Commentary: April 16, 2024

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Don’t Get Locked In – Be Patient

Posted by Pete Stolcers on April 16

This dip is going to provide us with valuable information. Stay flexible and monitor the price action.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – I’m going to keep this brief because I don’t want my message to get lost.

We have been waiting for a dip. Asset Managers have been waiting for a dip. Now we are getting the dip and everyone is scared shitless.

Bears are pounding the table. “I knew this was a market top!” Bulls are certain that this is NOT a market top.

Here’s the truth. WE DON’T @#$% KNOW, BUT WE WILL KNOW IN A WEEK.

There will be a market bounce. I assure you of that. The buyers from the last 5 months are not just going to throw in the towel. Economic growth has been solid, people have jobs, credit risk is low and profits will be robust.

The depth and duration of this dip are going to tell us how aggressive we should be on the rebound. If the SPY stays above $500 and we stack green candles on volume from this level, that is bullish. We could even make a new all-time high after earnings releases from mega cap tech stocks.

If the current dip drops to the 100-day MA and if it lasts more than two weeks, the selling pressure is legitimate and then we need to tame our expectations for the bounce. We do not trade that bounce as aggressively and we factor in the likelihood that we might not get through the all-time high. Again, we will get a bounce.

Right now, traders have already made up their mind on which way we are going to go. That is foolish, we don’t have the information we need to reach any conclusion.

Stay flexible and look for day trading opportunities. When we see a move in one direction that stalls, look for a move the other way. Buyers and sellers are paired off at this juncture.

Support is at $500 and resistance is at the 50-day MA.

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