Daily Commentary: April 23, 2025

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This Is A Bounce… It Is Only A Bounce

Posted by Pete Stolcers on April 23
www.oneoption.com

One day the news is good… the next day it’s bad. We will have clarity in the next two weeks.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – Two days ago it felt like the world was falling apart. The market tanked and Trump was going to fire Powell. Tariffs were going to squash economic activity and inflation was going to reignite. This morning Trump made nice with Powell and Xi and all is right in the world.

I’ve been telling you for the last 3 months that the tariff news is masking what is actually happening to economic activity around the globe. Growth has been decelerating and it is just a matter of time until it hits the US. The tariffs will have a base of 10% and from what I’ve read… that’s not negotiable. The retaliatory tariffs are. I believe that a trade deal or two will be “inked” in the next two weeks and that could provide a market boost. I also believe that the Senate will approve a budget. It includes big tax cuts and that would be market friendly. I want this news to pass and it is a threat to short positions.

Once the dust settles, reality will set in. Global economic conditions are slipping and the Fed remains hawkish. Other central banks around the world have been easing for many months, yet activity continues to slip.

In the next two weeks we will get a read on economic conditions (GDP and the Jobs Report next week), earnings (mega cap tech stocks will have reported) and interest rates (FOMC in two weeks). We are likely to learn more about trade deals and the budget as well. These are potential upside catalysts in the context of a market decline. We want those events to pass and we want the market to struggle as the SPY tries to recapture $550. If I see this type of price action, I will be ready to scale into bearish swing trades.

Swing traders should buy the naked puts they’ve sold in the last few weeks when they are trading for pennies. Wait for this bounce to stall.

Day traders should not chase the gap up this morning. Gap and Go’s are very dangerous because a quick reversal would result in big losses. Wait for the early action to subside. Sellers will test the bid and when the market tries to fill in some of the gap, you will be able to gauge which stocks have true relative strength. Once the market finds support, these will be your best prospects. Look for stocks that are breaking through horizontal resistance on heavy volume. If you see stacked red SPY candles well into the gap in the first 45 minutes, hold off on longs. That is a sign that sellers are active and the market could reverse. I see this as fairly unlikely.

We are seeing big swings in both directions. This is NOT a market where you can trade with a great deal of confidence. Trade small, be patient and stay flexible. Wait for your windows to set up. When you have nice gains and the move stalls… take gains. If you stay in a position that is not moving, you risk being on the wrong side of a news release. Hit and run!

Support is at AVWAPQ and resistance is at $544.28.

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