Daily Commentary: April 25, 2024

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The First Crack In the Dam

Posted by Pete Stolcers on April 25

The first look at Q1 GDP was not what we wanted. Economic growth is slowing.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS THURSDAY – I have been looking for a market bounce from this level. We have starter long positions and we have been waiting for technical confirmation before we add. We don’t have that and we are going to look for an exit point.

The strong rally from November through March indicated strong buying and we were going to lean on that trend until we had reason to believe that it was going to reverse. We still don’t have that confirmation, but the bounce I was looking for is less likely to happen.

META posted earnings yesterday. They “beat”, but the stock dropped almost 20%.

This morning the first look at Q1 GDP came in very light (1.6% vs 2.5% expected). This is the first sign that economic growth is slowing. This is going to move the Fed’s easing timetable forward. I was willing to tolerate “higher for longer” until we saw signs that growth was slowing and now we have that. Any “bad news is good news” bounce will be temporary. Now the big question will be, “Did the Fed wait too long.” Tomorrow we will get the PCE deflator. A hot number would be a “double whammy”. Slower growth and higher prices would not be a good combination.

After the close today, GOOG and MSFT will report earnings.

The selling pressure the last two weeks, the reaction to META (and other “beats”) and the soft GDP have me looking for a test of the 100-day MA in the next week.

This is not the news I was expecting and it was not the reaction (META) I was expecting. I will be exiting my starter longs. No panic. The stocks I am long should hold up fairly well. I am not going to short on the gap down, but I will be looking at day trading shorts if we get a bounce. My overall market bias has certainly shifted with this latest information.

Support is at the 100-day MA and resistance is at $500.

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