Daily Commentary: April 25, 2025

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So Far… So Good

Posted by Pete Stolcers on April 25
www.oneoption.com

Mega cap tech reactions have been good to this point. Earnings season will crank up next week.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – The news cycle is fluid and the market is reacting to tariffs and potential trade deals. Without any specifics, this price movement is noise. Next week we will get something we can sink our teeth into.

Earnings season will kick into high gear. The tariffs are not having an impact on earnings yet and stocks have been beaten down during the first quarter. This has produced small rallies and the calendar is loaded next week.

The economic releases next week will also grab the headlines. ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, ADP, JOLTS, the Jobs Report and Q1 GDP will be released. I am expecting good job growth, but signs of deceleration in the other numbers.

The last three days have felt good, but it’s important to remember the way you felt Monday morning. The market has rallied 350 points in the last few days, but conditions can change rapidly. Stay fluid and watch SPY $550. That is a major resistance level and we have a round of potential good news ahead. The Senate will be working on a budget and that is a potential upside catalyst.

I want all of this news to run its course. “Take your best shot and let’s see what you’ve got!” I am respecting the market drop this year and we knew a bounce was coming. I want to see the market struggle to get through $550. That will be a sign that sellers are still in “risk off” mode and that they are concerned that global growth is slowing. If this plays out, I will be looking for swing shorting opportunities in the next couple of weeks.

“What if the market blows through $550 like it wasn’t even there?” Then I won’t be taking any bearish swing trades! I will stick to day trading and I will try to capture some of the move higher. It is going to take more than a quick breakout to change my longer-term market bias. This is exactly why I am not entering bearish swing trades now. We sold some naked puts and we generated nice income the last few weeks. Now we are in “wait and see” mode. We have to wait for our next window of opportunity to set up.

From a day trading standpoint, I recorded a video this morning. Watch for signs of a wimpy first move. If we get it, fading it will present the best trading opportunity. If the market stages an impressive first move, it is going to continue and pullbacks will provide good entry points.

I suggest being VERY cautious on the long side. The S&P 500 is about 40 points from a major resistance level and after a 350+ point rally the last few days I believe the upside is fairly contained. I am favoring the short side and personally I would like to see a wimpy rally to start the day.

Support is at the low from Thursday and resistance is SPY $550 which was touched overnight.

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