Daily Commentary: April 26, 2024

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Earnings vs Economic Releases

Posted by Pete Stolcers on April 26

This week earnings releases and economic releases are creating some volatility.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS FRIDAY – This is a big news week and there are plenty of market drivers. Mega cap tech earnings are being released along with major economic releases. This will continue next week as well.

Wednesday after the close, META reported earnings. The reaction was negative and the stock dropped. Yesterday after the close, GOOG and MSFT reported and the reactions were bullish. AAPL and AMZN will report next week.

GDP came in lighter than expected yesterday (1.6% vs 2.5% expected) and the drop from the previous quarter was substantial (from 3.6% to 1.6%). This is the first real sign of an economic slowdown. From my perspective, this is a longer-term concern. As long as economic growth in the US was intact, the market could shoulder “higher for longer”. The PCE came in at .3% this morning as expected. That level is still well above the Fed’s target.

Next Wednesday we will hear from the Fed. Prior to yesterday’s decline in GDP, I was expecting the statement next week to be a “nothing burger”. The Fed was going to delay any possible rate cut. The market rebounded from the early drop because traders are going to be expecting a more dovish tone from the Fed next week and they want to hear that the timeline for a rate cut has been moved forward. A decline in economic growth and stubborn inflation is not a good combination.

The market has established support above the 100-day MA and there is a higher low. I expected a solid GDP and bullish reactions to the earnings releases. I did not get what I wanted and I don’t have a clear read on the market. The bounce I was looking for would have been strong and clean.

The news next week might give us some direction. I would not trust the gap up this morning. Wait to see if the overnight gains hold.

Support is the high from Thursday and resistance is at $507.40.

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