Daily Commentary: April 29, 2024

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Dovish Fed Needed

Posted by Pete Stolcers on April 29

This is a busy news week with earnings, economic releases and the FOMC statement.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS MONDAY – Earnings season is in full bloom and the results so far have been in line with historical results. The blended earnings growth rate for Q1 S&P 500 EPS currently stands at 3.5% and that is inline with expectations. The blended revenue growth rate is 4.0%. Of the 46% of S&P 500 companies that have reported for Q1, 77% have beaten consensus EPS expectations. This is also in line with historic performance. AMZN will report after the close Tuesday and AAPL will report after the close Thursday.

This is a major week for economic releases. ISM manufacturing, ISM services, ADP, JOLTS and the jobs report will shed light on growth. I believe that job growth will be steady based on the 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims. ISM manufacturing and ISM services have been slipping recently and that is consistent with the soft GDP number released last week. This was the first economic kink in the armor.

The FOMC statement will be released Wednesday afternoon. Given the weak GDP results (down 2% Q/Q) traders will be expecting dovish rhetoric from the Fed.

We have starter swing longs on, but we are not adding unless the SPY blows through the 50-day MA Wednesday. We need that breakout and the market will be looking for reassurance from the Fed. If we get this move, shorts will be forced to cover and they will fuel the rally.

The market is gapping up this morning. Don’t chase the move. I believe today and tomorrow could be dull. AMZN after the close Tuesday and ISM manufacturing and ADP before the open Wednesday could spark a move. The FOMC reaction will be very important Wednesday and it will determine if the SPY bounce continues or if we see a lower high. Thursday could be an active day post -FOMC, but AAPL and the jobs report Friday will set up another big potential move. The market is likely to move in fits and spurts this week.

Look for a dull day today. Don’t force trades.

Support is at the 100-day MA and resistance is at the 50-day MA.

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