Daily Commentary: April 29, 2025

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The Start of a Busy News Cycle

Posted by Pete Stolcers on April 29
www.oneoption.com

Earnings releases and major economic reports are pending.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – This is the calm before the storm. Yesterday buyers and sellers were engaged and we saw nice two-sided movement during the day. I am expecting the same today, but the range might be compressed.

The market is going to try one side and if the price action is strained, it will try the other side. The net change at the end of the day will be negligible. I don’t know if the market will move materially from the opening price or not. If we get a nice directional move, you will see nice candles of a single color and the it will continue. You can trade that direction, but take gains when the momentum stalls. Watch for a nice move back to the opening price just like we saw yesterday. Know that there’s also a chance that we don’t move far from the opening price all day and that there aren’t any sustained moves.

Today JOLTS will be released after the open. Tomorrow ADP and GDP will be released. ADP should be in line with expectations, but this will be our first look at GDP. The estimates vary widely between the Fed’s regional banks and the overall consensus is .4%.

Mega cap tech earnings this week include AMZN, META and MSFT. The calendar is full and I am expecting good market movement.

From my longer-term bearish perspective, I view this as the last hurrah. Give me your best shot and show me how high you can bounce. Once this impetus runs its course I believe the market will hit resistance and a good short will set up. There are potential bullish catalysts (trade deals and a budget) and I would like some of that to play out.

Ultimately, I believe that slowing global growth will weigh on the market. SPY $550 has been tested and I am expecting a slight move above it. I would like to see the market struggle to get to the 50-day MA. Everyday that the market treads water, option premiums get cheaper. Option IVs have been very high and they need to come down considerably to consider put purchases.

The tariffs have not kicked in and earnings should be good.

I would plan for a relatively dull trading day. I would hold off on swing trades and I would keep my day trades to a minimum.

Yesterday’s range could hold and the low and the high are your support and resistance levels respectively.

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