Daily Commentary: April 30, 2024

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The Last Dull Day of Trading

Posted by Pete Stolcers on April 30

Major news is pending. Traders will not be very active today and we can expect a tight range.

PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS TUESDAY – European markets were largely unchanged and Asia was up a little. There is no overseas impetus. The S&P 500 is down before the open and traders are going to wait for major news releases Wednesday – Friday.

AMZN will release earnings after the close today and tomorrow we will get ADP and ISM manufacturing. These two items could spark some early action, but things are likely to quiet down. Europe has a banking holiday and everyone will be waiting for the FOMC statement. Given the drop in GDP last week, the market will expect dovish remarks.

The reaction to the FOMC will carry over to Thursday’s session, but once the reaction has run its course, we are likely to settle down again.

AAPL will report earnings after the close Thursday and then we have the jobs report and ISM services Friday.

Ultimately, I want to see the market test the 50-day MA after the FOMC statement and I want to blow through it. I don’t want to touch it, I want to close well above it on heavy volume with stacked green candles. If I don’t get that, it will tell me that the market did not get what it wanted from the Fed and that they are still hawkish after signs of economic contraction. If I do not get this pattern, I will exit starter long positions. If I get it, I will add to starter long positions.

This is going to be a dull trading day so error on the side of not trading.

Support is at the 100-day MA and resistance is at the 50-day MA.

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