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Economic Activity Is Slowing
www.oneoption.com
The first reading for Q1 GDP was weaker than expected.
PRE-OPEN MARKET COMMENTS WEDNESDAY – This morning we learned that Q1 GDP was -.3% (.4% growth expected) and projected prices increased 3.7% (3.1% expected). We have weaker growth and hotter than expected inflation. That is not a good combination and the S&P 500 dropped on the news. It also dropped when ADP reported that only 62K jobs were created in the private sector in April (114K expected). I have been pounding on my desk telling you that the macro backdrop is weak. This has nothing to do with tariffs, they have not even kicked in yet.
Many companies are flush with inventory. Trump ran on tariffs and they ordered ahead of time to front run them. Orders from China were artificially high for that reason and that inventory will take time to deplete. That means that production slowdowns are just starting and they will drop much further.
SMCI dramatically reduced their revenue forecast and that is going to impact chip makers. META and MSFT will report after the close today and AMZN and APPL report after the close tomorrow.
The market broke out above resistance at SPY $550 yesterday and this morning it is back down to $547. That could be a failed breakout, but we won’t know for sure until we see the reaction to earnings tonight. If the market can’t bounce today, it will be a sign of still selling pressure. If it continues to retreat after the close, that will serve as confirmation.
Swing traders can take small starter put positions late in the day if the market can’t stage a nice bounce and if it closes below SPY $550. Know that you are likely to take heat on the position. We still have potential trade deals pending and those could spark small temporary bounces. Go 3 months out in time when you buy puts and try to buy options that span the next earnings release. I like to buy deep ITM options that trade at a delta of .7. This is basically a surrogate short position in the stock. Look for stocks that did not bounce with the market the last two weeks and that are below technical support after reporting earnings recently.
Day traders should expect volatility today. This was a nasty round of economic news, but we still have earnings the next two days. That will keep buyers somewhat engaged. What does that mean? If we did not have major earnings pending, I think the selling pressure would have been more steady today. That unknown will keep some uncertainty alive. We still could see steady selling pressure. If the first few bars for the day are red and stacked, we are likely to drift lower and this will be a gap and go. I would put the odds at about 25%. I would prefer to watch the price action for the first 45 minutes. If this is a gap and go lower, I might enter at a worse price, but my odds will be higher because I will have more information to go off of. Waiting also eliminates the risk of getting trapped in a bounce that goes into the gap. I would 100% NOT look for longs. Your entire focus should be on the short side. It’s not a matter of “if”, it is a matter of “when”.
Support is at SPY $545 and resistance is at $548.55 (low from Tuesday).
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